The rest of the week is simply going to be defined by the 3-day high @ 6512.
This move back towards the 3-day high is what I was looking for to happen yesterday. I’ve been bullish this week because of the expectation that the closer it gets to December, the more likely the market will move back towards the 50% level.
Today:- Risk 6512 (3-day highs)
Above the highs and it’s a trending day upwards (don’t short it)
But when we look at probability patterns there are gaps in the market on the R87. I don’t want to be trading longs at these highs on the open unless the downside gaps are filled.
Statistically:- not only a 44 point move but also the gap. Gap trading not only occurs from lower opens, but also from higher opens:- therefore my expectation is the gaps need to be filled before the overall trend can continue.
Scenario:- I respect the market and trading above 6512, but I won’t be buying longs on open because of the Gap….
The best longs not only occur from R44 lows, which would be my ideal BUY zone, but today I would need to see the Gap of 6450 close.
If the market settles above 6512 on open and begins to consolidate above it for a number of hours, only then would I contemplate going long today…
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