Index & Forex Weekly 21st June 2008

Index, Stocks, Forex Reports out now...


Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/

DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/


EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/



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    • Posted by

    S&P DOW Trading 20th June 2008 Recap

    "Expectation US markets are heading towards the Weekly lows, with the most likely pattern down towards June's lows next Week (Weekly Report tomorrow)

    Just like the Aussie market today, I don't have a view on direction other than trading on the side of the blue channel in both markets

    Yesterday's view was short-covering in a down trend, and if prices are going to move lower today then it will push lower when US markets open..."

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    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

    US markets continue the downward trend towards June's lows next week, as Friday sells down on open.

    Expectation June lows will reach and probably continue down into a double monthly low pattern in July, before any sustained monthly counter-trend move upwards occurs.

    Weekly Report out later.....

    http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/


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    • Posted by

    SPI Trading 20th June 2008 Recap

    "No clear direction on the SPI this week, and today is simply going to be defined by 5379...

    Today:- it's going to depend on where price opens, but the Spiral filter is the early guide.

    An open closer to 5390 and expectation is price is pushing down into 5379, which can result in two plays...

    A:- bounces off 5379 and breaks 5390 and continues higher.

    trading below 5379 and the risk of trading longs is open to Risk...

    Today I don't have a probability pattern or a view on direction other than using 5379 as our trend guide today.     .."

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    SPI 16:05 Recap


    Today I didn't have a clear direction on which way the market was going to go based on Sycom close, but once price opened below 5379 the trend was down.

    Normal price action would be to move towards the 5-day lows as price sells down from the 5-day 50% level.


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    • Posted by

    S&P DOW Trading 19th June 2008 Recap

    "It's not often that you see the week of contract expiry not move higher into Friday, but with Tuesday's failure to break the Weekly 50% levels, and then reverse down confirmed with Wednesday's break, I would expect downward pressure with only short-covering rallies for the next two days..

    Support and resistance shown above, and those levels are my ranges for Thursday..."

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    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

    Expectation of short-term covering rallies occurred on Thursday hitting the upper resistance levels, but I would have like Thursday to push down slightly to get a low Risk entry to trade upwards on Thursday....




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      • Posted by

      SPI Trading 19th June 2008 recap...

      "Trading shorts from a lower open isn't part of today's set-up...early Support is 5359

      Once again the first range should complete to get a better idea on today's direction, with the pattern that I would like to see is a failure aftr rising upwards confirmed with the Spiral filter (5394)

      Today's view is simply about the 5-day 50% level and the Spiral filter, at this stage I favour a down move..."

      Premium Report...8:30am


      SPI 16:00 Recap

      SPI opened lower rising upwards from support and into the Spiral filter @ 5394.

      The pattern I was looking for today was a rejection pattern @ 5394 and then push down today, however after early resistance of 23 points, the SPI moved higher resulting into a consolidating trading day without a clear direction of the trend.


      Posted by

      S&P DOW Trading 18th June Recap

      "Weekly 50% level resistance and pushing down.

      It's hard to see a higher move on Wednesday, because a bullish set-up would have normally formed a 'hook' day on Tuesday and then continue higher into Expiry.

      This hasn't happened, so at this stage the only conclusion I can make, is that price is heading down towards the Weekly lows (5-day lows)

      Therefore the price action for US traders is simply to trade on the side of the blue channel...."

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      S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

      S&P breaks support and pushes down into the 5-day lows, as it heads down towards the Weekly lows...


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      • Posted by

      SPI Trading 18th June 2008 Recap

      "Therefore today's range is defined by the 5-day 50% levels 5389 and 5455...

      Because price is trading below yesterday's R44 high @ 5424, the expectation is that price is moving back down into and R44 low @ 5395 and then into the 50% levels, and could go as far as the Spiral risk level @ 5372:-

      Reverses off the 5-day 50% level @ 5389 and continues higher into the close"

      Morning Premium Report..


      SPI daily and 5-day pattern

      SPI opens and pushes down into the Risk filter @ 5373, and then swings above the 5-day 50% level and continues higher into the upper channel target of the previous 5-day range 5446-54..



      Posted by

      S&P DOW Trading 17th June Recap

      In the Weekly Report there was an expectation that Monday would reverse down from the Weekly 50% levels and move down into the 5-day 50% levels.

      If the US markets are going to continue higher this week, then traders would need to see 'HOOK' day back above the Weekly 50% levels....

      But we also need to keep in mind that both the higher timeframe Weekly and Monthly 50% levels can be major resistance zones.

      The Premium Report



      S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

      S&P moves up into the 5-day highs, matching the Weekly and June 50% levels and then pushing down into the close...

      Even with Expiry this week, it's going to be hard to see a continuation higher, because the 'HOOK' Day would normally have occurred on Tuesday, which it didn't.


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      • Posted by

      SPI Trading 17th June 2008 Recap

      "Today is about trying to work out the direction on where this Weekly trend is going to go.

      Two day counter-trend move (today is the 2nd ) moves back towards the 5-day 50% level and continues higher into the close, and then higher into Expiry on Thursday.

      For this to happen the last r44 bar needs to complete to get a better guide (5342)

      If it is rising up from and R44 low and trading above 5352 (Red) then the bias is to continue higher...."

      Premium Report 9.00am

      SPI 16:15 Recap

      SPI opens and moved down from 5376 and completes the move down into 5342....

      As per morning Report:- the UP move was confirmed with an R44 HOOK above 5352 and then a continuation upwards into the close....

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      • Posted by

      DOW S&P Trading 16th June 2008 Recap

      Next Week:- Ideal pattern in both markets is a continuation higher on Monday into the 5-day highs, which match the Weekly 50% level, and then push back down into support.

      So the expectation is selling pressure around the Weekly 50% level (5-day highs).

      If US markets are going to continue higher into expiry then price should then rise up off support and look for a 'HOOK' day back inside the Weekly 50% level.

      A 'HOOK' day will favour a continuation upwards into Friday....       Weekly Report


      S&P Daily

      US markets moved up into the Weekly 50% level, which matched the Monthly 50% level and was pushed back down into support....

      Tuesday will now either provide a 'HOOK' day, or will follow the weaker trend downwards.

      Posted by

      SPI Trading 16th June 2008 Recp

      "the best set-up for a move higher will once again be price rising upwards from a 44 point spiral low....

      That means, price pushes down 44 points and then continues higher, as it rises up from a 44 point low, which could occur today or part of tomorrow set-up.

      Opens below 5410 and remains below 5410 pushing down into the Spiral filter @ 5358, and could then continue down into 5300 by Tuesday's open...."

      Morning Report (Premium)



      SPI 16:15

      Opens below 5410 and pushes down 44 points and then rises higher from a 44 point low @ 5359.

      Price action today remains in a consolidating pattern, and where the continuation of this week's trend will be determined by US markets :- ie lower open @ 5300 or higher open around 5455


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