Index Futures & Stock Reports 27 June 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/







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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 26th June 2009 recap

    "I mentioned two days ago I was looking for a swing back towards the Weekly 50% level @ 3891, base on the break above the previous day's high along with the cross-over of the 5-day 50% level...

    That happened yesterday.

    We need to trade with the spiral filters and acknowledge that if price is trading above 3864, there is a potential UP move towards the Weekly 50% level @ 3891, and could go as high as Friday's highs @ 3909"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Today's higher open had an each way bet based on trading around 3764 (spiral filter).

    It is natural to short trade a higher Daily open back down towards the 5-day 50% level @ 3826 and 44 points down...

    However, when price move down 21 points and then HOOKed back above 3864, the expectation was already mapped out 2-days ago...

    a swing back towards 3891 and the Weekly 50% level.


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    S&P (e-mini ) 25th June 09 recap

    "At this stage S&P is trading below its Weekly 50% level and on their monthly balance points (RED)

    With today's higher open I would still continue to focus on the short side: - Sell higher Daily open and resistance.

    Don't short trade above the 5-day 50% levels on Thursday"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P started Thursday with a sell off on the higher daily open and selling down from the 5-day 50% level...

    I wasn't expecting an UP day on Thursday, but was mindful that if price moved down but reversed back above the 5-day 50% level there was a good chance that price would move back towards the Weekly 50% level..

    Thursday closes on the Weekly 50% level @ 916, which is the trend guide for this week.

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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 25th June 2009 recap

    "I still have the expectation that the SPI is moving down into 3705

    Resistance levels are based on the 5-day 50% level @ 3808

    Based on the 5-day pattern, the expectation is price is moving down to complete the Range continue down towards 3747…

    Above 3808 and potential up move towards 3836"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    I started the day with the expectation that price had to rise up into 3807 and then sell down towards 3747...

    Early price action played out with the lower daily open:- rising up from the spiral low @ 3762 towards 3807, there was some resistance, but when price started to trade above 3808 the bias was to continue up towards 3836.

    A couple of days ago I mentioned that I was looking for a 2-day UP swing once the previous daily high and 5-day 50% level cross-over ooccured, and today was the day...

    However, I wasn't expecting today would be the day, as it didn't hit 3705 first.

    It would have been a more probable pattern at the start of today if 3705 reached yesterday or the day before, and then look for the confirming pattern on the break after today's lower open.




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    • Posted by

    DOW Futures 24th June 2009 recap

    "Expectation US markets are heading down

    Wednesday looks to be rising up back into the 5-day 50% level, and normally this level is used to trade Monday's breakout....

    Short trade the breakout using the 5-day 50% level as resistance the next day"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    DOW heading down towards 8120 in the short-term....

    Wednesday's resistance, as part of the Monday breakout:- test and reject down towards Wednesday's lows using the 50% level.




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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 24th June 2009 recap

    "Based on probability patterns and Tuesday's breakout @ 3809:- a move into the 5-day 50% level and rejection down towards Wednesday's lows would be the ideal pattern:- 3705

    However, based on yesterday’s range 3777-80 is still seen as resistance in early trading, with the expectation price needs to move down to 3747 to complete the first range"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Today saw the early sell down from 3780 completing the first range target of 3743-47

    A bearish pattern would have continued down towards 3705, but often we see the Spiral lows swing back upwards and retest resistance….

    And that’s what has occurred today.

    Instead of moving up into the 5-day 50% level early and selling down, we had the opposite:- moving down early and reversing up from the Spiral lows and back into resistance levels late in the day.



    The SPI is moving down into the first target @ 3705, with a max move towards the June 50% level @ 3645.

    At this stage we should be concentrating on 'short' trading down into these levels...

    When the SPI reaches 3705 we begin to look for trades each way, as there could be a swing back up towards next week's Weekly 50% level...

    This should be confirmed with price breaking the previous day’s highs along with the cross-over of the 5-day 50% level.

    A move down toward 3705 on Wednesday is now dependent on US markets moving lower, which might not occur.



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    • Posted by

    DOW Futures 23rd June 2009 recap

    "We have a Monday breakout that should extend down towards Tuesday's lows.

    The ideal pattern would be to see an early rise up into the 5-day 50%level and short trade down into Tuesday lows"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Price continued down into Tuesday's lows, but not how I wanted it to.

    Preferred set-up was to see an early rise on Monday in the breakout and 5-day 50% level and once again short trade the move down.

    At this stage DOW is looking to move down towards 8120.



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 23 June 2009 recap

    We are now following #1 from the Weekly Report....

    #1:- Weekly 50% level becomes another resistance zone sending the SPI down once again towards the June 50% level.

    When there is a breakout of a 5-day low the market will move down a minimum move of 42-44 points.

    Therefore below 3812-09 we want to be short trading the market down and manage any trades around 3777

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Today's lower open hasn't followed the same pattern over the past number of weeks of rising higher because the market dynamics have changed.

    Yesterday sold down from the Weekly 50% level along with the 5-day 50% level helped by US markets breaking their own 5-day lows.

    Today was simply using the breakout pattern on Tuesday below 3809-12 and trade downward into 3777.



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    • Posted by

    DOW Futures 22nd June 2009 recap

    "As per Weekly report, there are 3 different plays this week based on the Weekly 50% level.

    Resistance:- 8596

    Trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Weekly 50% level rjection and 5-day breakout on Monday....

    And as per the Weekly report:- the expectation now is that #1 is playing out and over the next

    2-weeks trying to make its way back towards the June 50% level....






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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 22nd June 2009 recap

    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    As described in the Weekly report, there are 3 different patterns that can play out this week, and Monday is the first day.

    There was an early rise up into the 5-day 50% level@ 3899, but price failed to move the complete 44 point reversal that is the dominate range in the SPI.




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