Index, Forex, Stocks 5th March 2011

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

US Dollar INDEX, AUD/USD, EUR/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/

OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, TLS, BTA Banking Report Update

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S&P (e-mini ) 4th March 2011 Daily recap.

Resistance 1340.75

Trend guide 1325.50



S&P Weekly and Daily range.

With Thursday’s price action my view was that the S&P would continue to move up towards Friday’s highs, which matched the Weekly highs, as the next ‘sell’ zone.

Instead, the larger timeframe levels around 1331 continue to stall the market, resulting in Friday moving down and closing in the middle of the range.

Weekly report out later



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SPI Daily 4th March 2011 recap

Today’s trading is based on whether the market comes back and closes the gap

Or whether Friday breaks out and continues upwards.

Trend guide 4850 (Weekly 50% level

SPI Weekly and Daily range.

The SPI has continued the current reversal from the March 50% level with a breakout of the highs on Friday.

Today was either going to close Yesterday’s gap, or breakout.


As noted in today’s report..

"We currently have a price pattern that is rising up from the MARCH 50% level after a double monthly high pattern in February, and this often set-ups up further gains towards the monthly highs in March, and then a continuation of the trend into the 2nd Quarter highs in April

With a lack of weakness in US markets on Thursday, I can’t see the S&P following a larger reversal pattern down, as per Weekly report"






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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 3rd March 2011 Daily recap.

    The S&P is currently being supported above the critical levels of 1300-1304, with a possible swing back towards the highs.

    1318.25 is seen as random resistance



    S&P Weekly and Daily range.

    There were two possible patterns on Thursday…

    #A) 1300-1304 supports the market and Thursday swings back towards the highs

    #B) Price would hit 1318.25 and begin the next leg down towards the Weekly lows and then the MARCH 50% level @ 1284.


    My view was that the market was trying to follow the Weekly trend down towards the lows, as it was trading below the Weekly 50% level @ 1322.

    However, the channels in the daily range favoured a swing back towards the channel highs, as did the higher timeframe levels of 1300-1304 supporting the market.

    And now, the current price action suggests the trend is likely to continue towards the Weekly highs:- Random resistance.




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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 3rd March 2011 recap

    Trend guide is to move down into 4785, which becomes a random support zone, using both the daily channel lows and Weekly level

    Target Gap fill @ 4822



    SPI Weekly and Daily range

    Early support from 4785 has moved up, but it failed to move beyond 4807…

    Gap fill target was 4822




    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 2nd March 2011 Daily recap.

    Resistance:- 1309-1311…

    Looking for the market to continue to move towards lower lows.


    S&P Weekly and Daily range…

    S&P moved up into the daily resistance levels, providing a 8.5 point reversal, but the Weekly level @ 1304 is now providing 'some support.'

    There were two plays on Thursday using the daily range….

    Either the market was going to continue down into the Daily lows, which match the MARCH 50% level @ 1284 and swing towards a higher daily close

    Or price was going to push up into the resistance levels and provide some selling.



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 2nd March 2011 recap

    keep an eye on how the S&P 500 trades over the next 2-days, as this could help set-up the overall trend over the next few weeks...

    as there is the potential for more weakness if the market begins trading below
    the monthly 50% level in MARCH."

    Aussie Index Weekly report


    SPI Weekly and daily range. (day session)

    SPI has opened at the Weekly lows@ 4764 and is currently supported at the MARCH 50% level (day session) @ 4770, after yesterday's reversal down in the S&P 500.

    Today has seen a late rise up towards the channel lows @ 4796, but it has struggled for most of the day, remaining in a consolidating pattern above those higher timeframe support levels.

    The March 50% level and Weekly lows are often seen as robust support zones, and I would often look at these levels for more gains towards new highs in the current month.

    However, there needs to be support in the S&P overnight, & over the next 3-days (Weekly close)



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 1st March 2011 Daily recap.

    There are two patterns at play, using both 1331 and also 1334.50, with the expectation that they are resistance levels.

    Either price moves back down into the Daily 50% level (channel highs) @ 1317

    or there is a potential swing back down towards the channel lows @ 1304, which matches the Weekly levels over the next 2-days.


    S&P Weekly and Daily range

    Tuesday reversed down from the daily highs, completing both targets (1317 and 1304), as part of a 2-day reversal pattern

    As noted in Tuesday's report...

    "What we notice was that there was a break of the 3-day cycle high (As part of a swing towards 1329-1331)

    This change of cycle puts the 3-day cycle lows down @ 1304, which matches the Weekly level.

    Therefore, the S&P can move into a 2-day reversal/stall pattern, until those 3-day lows catch up with price/ trend.

    What we saw was a 3-day cycle reversal pattern back down into the Weekly lows, which also matched the overall view of the market around these highs.

    And as noted in the Weekly report...

    Now things start to get interesting, with price trading around 1300-1304 at the start of March.


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 1st March 2011 recap

    Random resistance @ 4861

    Support:- 4834-40



    SPI Weekly and Daily range.

    With February’s resistance level @ 4849 disappearing, my view was that the trend bias was to push upwards from 4840, with a minimum move of 21 points to 4861

    However, the early rise from 4840 wasn’t sustained, and the market closed back below the support levels on Tuesday, resulting in another trading day consolidating below the Weekly 50% level.






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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 28th Feb 2011 Daily recap.

    S&P can move higher and retest last week’s breakout @ 1329.

    Above the channel highs @ 1316 and it continues up towards the breakout:- 1329/1331 Random resistance.

    S&P Weekly and Daily range

    Market has continued back towards 1329 and has stalled, with an intra-day reversal down of 8.5 points

    As mentioned in the most recent Weekly report….

    "Weekly support @ 1295 is simply a short-term counter trend move back to retest the breakout @ 1329.

    If the market stalls @ 1329-31, and is once again trading below the Weekly 50% level, then traders need to keep an eye on the lower Weekly level @ 1304"

    The Market did stall @ 1329, and it did reverse down 8.5 points to be trading below the Weekly 50% level.

    However, Monday failed to remain below that level, and has instead remained above @ 1322.50 during cash market hours.



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 28th February 2011 recap

    SPI will be defined by two key levels today:- 4844 & 4849.

    And in my opinion will form resistance.

    support 4794



    SPI Weekly and Daily range    .

    Early resistance at the Weekly 50% level @ 4844, but a failure to continue back down into the support level @ 4794

    As noted in the morning report, these resistance levels @ 4844-49 are valid for 1 day only, as the resistance will shift higher from tomorrow and may follow the new dynamic range for the following month.(March)

    This doesn’t necessarily mean that tomorrow will rise higher, but if Tuesday is above 4844, it has more reason to continue back towards the quarterly level @ 4883...

    And a new Monthly range in March @ 4958

    Trailing support levels are shown @ 4773-7


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