Index & Stock Reports 13 FEB 2010 Weekly

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

US Dollar INDEX, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

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S&P (e-mini ) 12 FEB 2010 Daily recap



S&P 500

Early selling around resistance levels @ 1078-1082

Push down as expected on Friday, but the late HOOK back above the 50% level has seen BUYing push the market into a higher Friday close, which I thought would happen

The Interesting pattern was that the BUYing didn’t close above the resistance, which would normally happen.







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SPI Daily 12th February 2010 recap

"SPI trading at the 5-day highs on Friday:-

Resistance 4563-65.

There is a bias to continue higher, but we have a number of levels on Friday that can stall price from rising and push the market down towards 4517"

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SPI Weekly and daily range


The interesting pattern on the SPI today was the Friday high and ‘sell’ pattern.

This reversal pattern is a retest of the 3-day cycle breakout @ 4517 from yesterday.

If the market is going to find support in an upwards bias it will be around this level, but it will need to be verified with an UP day in US markets.

These Friday high reversal patterns can often lead into a 2-day reversal pattern towards the 3-day cycle lows @ 4429. This will only occur if US markets reverse down from a higher Friday open using the resistance levels:- Weekly and monthly 50% levels

However as pointed out yesterday, a breakout of resistance can often occur on Friday's. if price moves down into the Yellow support levels and then takes out the highs in late trading on Friday US markets will continue higher.... (higher Weekly close above resistance levels)

And the SPI will be back around the Monthly 50% levels.






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    • Posted by

    DOW 11th FEB 2010 Daily recap

    "I'm still treating the Weekly and February 50% levels as resistance.

    However, there’s a divergence in next week's lows (rising weekly lows), which could lead to a higher weekly close and break of resistance on Friday

    The Daily highs have caught up with price:- Therefore we have the daily highs, the Weekly 50% level and February 50% levels as resistance"



    DOW Futures.

    If US market were going to continue down then Thursday would have been the ideal day for that to happen with a number of patterns coming together, along with the daily highs.

    Currently there's resistance around these levels and Friday will begin with a higher daily open around resistance.

    However, as pointed out in the daily report, there is a divergence in the weekly timeframe, that can lead to a breakout of the resistance levels on Friday.






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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 11th February 2010 recap

    "Base on the spiral filter @ 4478 the bias is to complete the Range upwards @ 4516.

    Resistance @ 4516.

    A breakout of the 3-day cycle and the expectation is that price is moving towards Thursday highs.."



    SPI Weekly and daily Range.

    SPI moved down into the spiral filter @ 4478 and pushed up into the highs.

    Once price began trading above 4516 I expected more upside because of the patterns in the higher timeframes :- SUPPORT.

    Yes the buying came into the market, but only after the cash market closed.

    SPI Futures.

    For those who have read my book:- we have a text book patterns in the Aussie market

    Precise double monthly lows in February.
    Quarterly 50% level @ 4463.
    Breakout of the 3-day cycle @ 4517..
    And upper target the Weekly 50% level.

    However, the SPI doesn’t want to go higher because US markets don’t have the same pattern.

    DOW futures

    Instead price is butting its head around resistance levels (February 50% level), with the expectation that the trend will follow the same pattern and continue down into the lows

    Normally a 2-day reversal into resistance would continue down, but that’s not happening.

    Therefore, I give US markets 1 more day to make a move, because if Thursday ends up another consolidating trading day, then a breakout of resistance is more likely to happen on Friday (break of resistance and close above)










    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 10 FEB 2010 Daily

    "Tuesday completed the 2-day UP move into resistance levels, with a precise top in the DOW.

    My view was a retest of these levels and a push back down towards the February lows this week

    Note:- the Yellow filter is in the wrong position have a clear cut move downward on Wednesday"



    S&P Weekly and daily range

    Consolidating trading day, with Yellow filter supporting the market on Wednesday.

    I still have a view of the market heading lower, as long as it remains below the 50% levels in the Weekly timeframe.



    Posted by

    SPI Daily 10th February 2010 recap

    "Today:- The critical level today is going to be the breakout of the 3-day cycle @ 4517.

    If the market is going to continue higher it needs to continue upwards from 4526 and move towards 4550 and then towards Weekly 50% level.

    If the SPI fails to move beyond 4526 and drops back below 4507, then the SPI could reacting to the price action in US markets, and the market can be attracted downstowards the brown filter"

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    SPI Futures

    The critical level today was the breakout of the 3-day cycle @ 4517 because of a number of text book patterns….

    Double monthly low pattern in February @ 4441
    Quarter 50% level support @ 4463
    breakout of the 3-day cycle @ 4517
    and cross-over of the 5-day 50% level and blue channels @ 4507…

    And price should continue to move upwards (42 points) and then towards the Weekly 50% levels @ 4588-4612

    "Everything is pointing to a bullish set-up and reversal of the trend. Right?

    I would normally say YES, but we don't have the same pattern in US markets.

    What we have in the US markets are, 2-day reversal patterns into resistance levels with the expectation that price is going to complete the move down into their own support levels."

    Below 4507 and our market can be looking rotation towards the lower brown filter levels"


    And that’s probably why there wasn’t more upside in today’s market, as pointed out in the morning report.

    Once price failed @ 4517 and dropped back below 4507 the market was rotating back down towards the filters and back within the daily range.





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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 9 FEB 2010 Daily recap


    S&P Weekly and daily range

    Early resistance around the 50% levels in the daily range, with a spike upwards on Tuesday.

    S&P failed to reach the resistance levels @ 1082...

    Whilst the DOW hit precise resistance levels on Tuesday @ 10105.

    This completes my 2-day reversal pattern into resistance levels.

    It's too early to tell whether US markets will reverse back down into the lows.

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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 9th February 2010 recap

    "What do we notice about the blue channels in the 5-day range? Price is still outside the blue channel

    If the R42 completes down @ 4835, then price will be inside the channel and matches the daily lows in the day session @ 4432

    R42 rise back towards 4470:- 42 points"

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    SPI Weekly and Daily range.

    SPI trading around higher timeframe support levels (February lows) and trading within the daily range and 5-day filters.

    Today moved down into support levels @ 4432 and reverse back towards the filter in late trading @ 4770

    This completes the 2nd day around support levels but without the swing back towards the Weekly 50% levels, and it will now depend on whether the S&P 500 continues up towards resistance levels…(weekly 50% level)

    Or follows my view of a potential Tuesday down move towards the Weekly and Monthly lows over the next 2-days





    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 8 FEB 2010 Daily recap

    "Regardless of Friday’s price action and reversal off the lows, I still feel the S&P needs to complete the move into this week’s lows and monthly levels in February (1015-1020)

    The most robust pattern would be to see Monday move upwards and hit the 50% levels, stall and then continue down from Tuesday"

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    S&P Weekly and Daily range.

    Monday found early support during globex hours (yellow) pushing price upwards, but failing to move beyond the 50% level @ 1067

    The current price action matches my view of Monday moving upwards hitting the 50% levels and stalling,…

    However, I would have preferred Monday to have moved slightly higher into 1078-1082.







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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 8th February 2010 recap

    After last Week's price action I would look for a swing back towards the Weekly 50% levels this week, whilst the SPI is above 4463

    The price action on Friday’s lows suggests a continuation of the swing from the Friday's lows with a 2-day rally towards the Weekly 50% level

    There are a number of resistance levels around 4508-16 on Monday, so it makes it hard to see Monday moving higher during the day.

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    SPI Weekly and Daily range

    Early rise upwards from 4663 and into resistance levels on Monday, reversing back down

    Even though I have a view of the market rising upwards, based on the levels in the daily ranges there was a good chance that Monday would stall.

    Any further upside will probably come from US markets having a slight rise on Monday and the Aussie market continuing higher on Tuesday.

    Note:- I still have a view of lower lows in February based on the price action in US markets, which could provide a double bottom on the SPI (FEB lows & 4318)

    I’ll have a fair idea on whether that’s going to happen this week by how far Monday moves upwards.




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