Index Futures, Forex Reports 3rd Jan 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/

Note: Weekly BHP and Banking Reports Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/


There is also a new Article found in the Trader SET:- intra-day timing techniques for day-trading the SPI futures.




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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 2nd January 08 recap



    S&P Monthly and Weekly

    As pointed out the last Weekend's Weekly Report:- the higher low in January favours higher prices back towards the monthly 50% levels....

    And this was set up perfectly with Monday's HOOK bar over the Weekly 50% level:-

    Dilernia principle    :- Daily HOOK bar favours higher prices into Friday's close.


    Posted by

    SPI 2nd January 2009 part 2

    "New Primary and Secondary cycles begin, but I won't confirm those levels until the end of today's trading & Sycom. (Weekly timeframe)

    Expectation that the market is heading back towards the January 50% level, and possibly towards the Quarterly 50% level.

    However it still needs to breakout of the 3-week highs and close above them, as these 3-week highs have been major resistance and could still be major resistance"

    Premium Report



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    A bit disappointing today on the SPI, as the 3-week highs continue to cap the market from rising higher.

    Once it couldn't remain above 3725, price was naturally rotating back down into the
    5-day 50% level and consolidating once again.

    There is a shift in the Weekly highs next week towards the January 50% levels.....

    And we will see how US markets trade on Friday and whether sycom ends up closing above the 3-week highs.


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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 31st December 08 recap

    'HOOK patterns' on the US markets with the expectation that prices are heading towards higher closes on Friday, which could take US markets up towards their 3-week highs....

    Tuesday breakout, and the only pattern that I can see is price continuing higher into Wednesday's highs from Yellow support"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets continuing up towards the 3-week highs....

    Wednesday continued higher but didn't come back down and retest support before the spike upwards.

    Expectation continues of higher prices into Friday.

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    • Posted by

    SPI 31st December 2008 recap

    "US markets have followed the HOOK pattern and will probably continue higher into Friday.

    This sets up global markets rotating towards their Monthly 50% levels, with the expectation that price is moving towards the January 50% level on the SPI.

    3695 (resistance)

    Above 3695 and the market is bullish and I wouldn't go looking to short trade today.

    If wanting to short trade I would focus on just a 20-23 points (take the cash)"

    Premium Report




    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened at resistance @ 3694 pushing the market down 23 points...

    Price was capped below 3695 for two hours before breaking higher and moving to the 3-week highs...

    "Today is the last day of the trading year, but I still need to see a Friday close to confirm the levels, which finally could result in the SPI closing above the 3-week highs @ 3748 by the end of this week helped by US markets moving higher"


    The 3-week highs are still capping the market, but if we subscribe to US markets moving higher into Friday then I would think that price should moving higher on Friday finally closing above the 3-week highs and continuing towards the January 50% levels.


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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 30th December 08 recap

    "A late Rally upwards has formed a Daily HOOK bar over the Weekly 50% level.

    This favours a higher close into Friday, which is what I'm looking for in global markets ;- rotation

    If price is going to follow the HOOK pattern upwards, then price should come back and test support and then continue higher into Tuesday's 5-day highs.

    Support is also the 5-day 50% level on Tuesday"

    Premium Report




    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P has played out Precisely on Tuesday....

    retesting support and moving towards Tuesday's highs.

    As I mentioned in the morning report....

    The trend bias is to continue higher into a Friday close.




    Posted by

    SPI 30th December 2008 recap

    If you've noticed these past few weeks I haven't done too much shorting intra-day but tried to align trading on the long side using the blue 5-day filters.

    This is because of my view of the market trying to rotate upwards into higher timeframe 50% levels.

    Trading the 'long side' even when there is a daily down trend has worked because of the repeating pattern of rotating back towards the 5-day 50% levels late in the day.

    My probability pattern for today is....

    The R44 range to complete on the upside and form a HOOK pattern above the 5-day filter @ 3615, and move towards the 5-day 50% level @ 3652.

    I've factored in a rising pattern, but we need to keep which could also push the market back towards 3575"

    Premium Report



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern


    SPI opened lower than expected but right on my lower Support levels @ 3575.

    Once price moved up 44 points and above 3615, the same pattern that's been occurring for the past 4 weeks....

    and that is a rotation towards the 5-day 50% level @ 3652.




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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 29th December 08 recap

    "When looking at the higher timeframes, price is trading below the Weekly 50% levels.

    Therefore over multiple timeframes the bias is to continue down because at this stage price is trading below all timeframe 50% levels.

    For daytraders :- 5-day 50% level is random resistance and Yellow is random support.

    Ideally on Monday is to move up towards the 5-day 50% level and push back down into support"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P pushed up early before the market opened hitting the Weekly 50% level and then sold back down into support, which was part of today's pattern.

    Support was random in a sense, that I didn't expect too much more weakness below that level on Monday.




    Posted by

    SPI 29th December 2008 recap

    "SPI continues to consolidate and I still have the view that markets are trying to move upwards based on the rotation towards the 50% levels in 2009.

    There is no probability pattern other than trading on the side of the levels shown...

    3615 and 3558"

    Premium Report




    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    In the first minute of trading the market spiked up 300 points before settling into its usual pattern of consolidation between the 5-day levels.

    I had no probability today other than trading longs above 3615, and if below the expectation was to push down...


    "simply looking for the same pattern of rotating back towards the 5-day 50% level into the close, which is the same pattern that has been occuring the past 3 weeks"

    Premium Report 12:55

    And then once 3558 supported the market, the usual rotation back into the 5-day 50% levels @ 3623 once again after 3pm played out.


    Posted by
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