Index Futures & Stock Reports 19 Dec 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update



Posted by

DOW Futures Daily 18th Dec 2009 recap

"There is a 5-day low breakout on Thursday and this normally favours a continuation down on Friday (below Weekly 50% levels)

I favour 50% level resistance & down but remaining inside the 5-day range on Friday"

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DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern


Thursday’s reversal pattern and breakout of the 5-day range, resulted in a high probability rejection pattern on Friday using the 50% levels & down into the lows.

At this stage the trend next week is going to be defined by the Weekly 50% levels.







Posted by

SPI Daily 18th December 2009 recap

"Expected weakness in US markets should hopefully provide the next leg down in the SPI.

For the next leg down to occur price needs to be breaking out of the 5-day lows (4612), however based on the sycom close that hasn’t been verified.

Therefore these lows could end up random support, or optimised to my view of the overall market and trend:- a breakout and next leg downward"

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SPI monthly and 5-day pattern

I’ve been bearish on the market because price has been trading below the December 50% level @ 4690, and last night’s price action in the S&P 500 favoured further weakness in the SPI…

The breakout of the 5-day lows @ 4612 started early, and I expected a continuation of the downward trend but it resulted in a fake break.

I was hoping the breakout would continue down, however the reversal pattern back above 4612 provided further 5-day pattern rotations which has been the norm for a number of weeks now.

A continuation of the short-term reversal pattern in the S&P 500 isn’t set in stone on Friday, if the market begins trading back above the 50% levels.








Posted by

S&P (e-mini ) 17th Dec 09 recap

"S&P 500 has been supported above the 50% levels for the past 3-days but not rising, and the contraction of the 5-day range is going to lead to a breakout. If Thursday opens below the 5-day 50% level I think the breakout will be down.

At this stage I’m not factoring in the 5-day lows & Weekly 50% level as support, as I feel that Thursday will probably breakout"

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S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Since last week’s HOOK pattern back above the Weekly 50% level I expected a move towards the Monthly highs within the first 3 days.

I didn’t have a bearish set-up on the S&P in the short-term as price wasn’t trading near resistance levels and price was above 50% levels, therefore the bias was to continue higher.

However, that bearish pattern appeared at midnight US time with Wednesday's close and Thursday's open pre-empting the change of the trend and break of short-term support levels @ 1098.

I've seen these patterns before:- 2-days consolidation around the support levels and Wednesday moves higher but then drifts down and Thursday opens below the 5-day 50% level.

Normally the market will remain below the 5-day 50% level over the first 4 hours, (after midnight NY) and then begin to move lower.

After 3-days of not going anywhere, when the market should have continued higher on Wednesday, I could not be bullish when Thursday started the day below the 5-day 50% levels

Now there's a breakout of the 5-day low on Thursday, which should continue down on Friday and maybe push down into the 3-week lows December 50% levels by Monday.

Whilst price is below 1098, the bias is to continue down over the next 2-days, I just would have preferred a larger trending day on Thursday towards 1083.





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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 17th December 2009 recap

    "today will be the first day since the 4th December that price will be opening below the brown filter, which should help push the market down R42 target @ 4615"



    SPI Monthly and Weekly

    December 50% level resistance, and today was the first day that the
    SPI would be opening below the brown filter @ 4668 since the 4th December @ 4751

    A downward trend would have completed the move down into 4615 but
    then remained below 4641 and then continued down into Thursday’s lows.

    Instead it reversed the range and moved back into the highs @ 4697,
    and we once again have more 5-day pattern rotations, which i'm not complaining about. (no long trading today)

    However, the SPI just won’t go down.

    S&P 5-day pattern in now contracting, which will eventually lead to a breakout of the 5-day range, and I’m betting that’s going to be tonight, and finally get the SPI out of this tight range.

    And even though US markets are currently supported, it doesn’t mean the move will be UP on Thursday.






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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 16th Dec 09 recap

    "Markets currently supported above the 50% levels, with a bias to move towards the highs..."



    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    After last week's HOOK pattern I expected more upside this week, but instead the price action has remained in a tight 5-day pattern range.

    This range is now beginning to contract, which eventually lead to a breakout of the range and a continuation of the trend upwards.

    However, after 3 days of trying to move upwards but failing, it won't surprise me that there is a reversal of trend and the breakout occurs on the downside.




    Posted by

    SPI Daily 16th December 2009 recap

    SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern

    The SPI is currently trading below the December 50% levels and with the bias to continue down, however there isn’t any weakness in US markets to help validated the next leg down.

    At this stage the market continues to consolidate within the 5-day range and rotating 42 points on most days.

    Any continuation of the trend down, or any reversal of the trend upwards needs to be validated by a breakout of the 5-day range, and we can currently see the creeping upwards of the 5-day filters (blue).

    Today:- before the market opened I was bearish because of yesterday’s price action and opening around the 5-day 50% level, as I'm trading the current trend with a downward bias.

    I wasn’t keen on longs simply because of the higher timeframe patterns even though a R42 low and 5-day 50% level @ 4651 can often provide a perfect move in the market (UP), but when optimising the pattern to the trend it wasn't a high probability set-up for today.

    Around the highs @ 4687-90, my expectation once again was a rotation back towards the 50% levels, as price was hitting the December 50% level, the 5-day channel and the R42 high (4687-90)



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 15th Dec 09 recap

    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    Slow trading day on Tuesday, with price remaining supported for most of the trading day until late selling push the market down and then back up.

    Whilst the market remains above the Weekly 50% levels @ 1098, the view is to continue towards the Monthly highs.

    With Tuesday losing momentum when it should have continue up from support and closed near the highs, it won’t take much for the trend to change.

    However, at this point I don't have any probability pattern to suggest Wednesday will move down, so at this stage the S&P remains supported with an upward bias.

    Posted by

    SPI Daily 15th December 2009 recap

    "Yesterday’s late move upwards from the lows @ 4614 has resulted in a move back above the 5-day 50% level @ 4654-57 (now Support)

    Therefore today’s trading is based on the trend above this level, with an expectation price will move up towards 4684-87.

    Expectation price will remain range bound between 4687 and 4657"


    SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern.

    As was the case 2 weeks ago after the November 50% levels were reached, the break above the 5-day filter (blue) push the SPI higher, along with the expectation that the S&P 500 would continue higher at the same time

    Today that same 5-day filter @ 4654-57 provided support with an initial push upwards into target areas of 4684-87, but this time there was a lack of follow though on upside.

    When the 5-day filter pattern provided the same pattern 2-weeks ago, the market dynamics was slightly different.

    Price was then rising up from November 50% levels, but this time price is trading below December 50% levels, which is currently stalling the market.

    At the present there’s no expectation of weakness in US markets until higher timeframe levels are reached in the 4th Quarter. (December)

    And the SPI remains in a sideways pattern during this 3-month cycle, but still with the view of moving lower, as per Weekly report.




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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 14th Dec 09 recap

    "Based on last week’s trading and Friday, I would favour upside whilst above the 50% levels, and with the expectation that price is trying to complete the 2-month wave pattern into December highs, which match the 4th Quarter highs in the S&P @ 1126

    There is no probability pattern to suggest another 2-day reversal down this Monday and Tuesday"



    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern.


    News from Dubai's $10 Billion loan hit global markets before the S&P had opened and it had already completed the move into Monday’s highs, resulting in the rest of the day consolidating around the top in the 5-day range.

    As pointed out in the Weekly report and Monday’s report, I’m not expecting this week to reverse down on Monday and Tuesday compared to the previous week’s expectation.







    Posted by

    SPI Daily 14th December 2009 recap

    "As per Weekly report, today's trading is either going to continue down at the start of the week and follow the trend down...

    or breakout of the 3-day cycle highs and begin to move upwards"



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened below the 50% levels and pushed downward, and once the R42 completed down on Monday @ 4614 buying support came into the market after 3pm.

    And by the look of it program trading hit both the Australian, Asian and US futures at the same time when news came in regarding a payment of $10 Billion in Dubai when they expected to default.

    The important pattern in the current reversal in the Australian market
    was last weeks move below the December 50% levels, the weekly
    close below those levels on Friday and the start of this week moving
    lower: - potential ‘thrust’ pattern down.

    However, the same ‘bearish’ patterns aren’t appearing in US markets at
    the moment, after last week’s 2-day reversal and HOOK pattern on
    Thursday and expected continuation of the trend into December highs

    If US markets continue upwards early this week, it won’t take much for the SPI to be opening above those December 50% levels and 3-day cycle highs tomorrow.





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