Index Futures & Stock Reports 5 SEPT 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

Oil Stocks and Qantas




Posted by

S&P (e-mini ) 4th September 09 recap

"At this stage the view is to continue down into the Weekly lows and September 50% level.

With this week's pattern and break of the Weekly 50% level and failure yesterday to rise up above the 5-day 50% level, the expectation is a lower Weekly close or a close in the middle of the 5-day range"

Premium Report



S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

With this week's price action of breaking Weekly support after reaching the Yearly 50% level my view was a continuation down into the Weekly lows or at least a close below 1012.

The set-up was the short trade the 5-day 50% level for a move down into the lows...

Early selling, however no follow through on the downside resulting in a Weekly close above the trend guides.

The down side move can still occur from early next week, but looking at the 5-day pattern and Friday's close (above 1012), at this stage it doesn't look like happening.



  • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex
  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium
  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 4th September 2009 recap

    "If the SPI is going to follow the pattern of a lower Weekly close(Friday) then resistance is 4474

    downside targer 4430 (R44 points)

    with a maxmimum move down towards 4409 (lower Friday close)"

    Premium Trader



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    With the S&P 500 failing to closer higher than the 5-day 50% level on an expected UP day, the expectation that the SPI would move down into a lower Friday close was based on the 5-day pattern and the channel highs @ 4774.

    Expected down move was the reliable pattern of 42-44 points (4430)

    A 5-day pattern range would be down into 4409, which might occur during overnight trading.




    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex
  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium
  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 3rd September 09 recap

    "Bearish because of the break of Weekly support with a view to move down into the Weekly lows and September 50% levels

    However, there is a change in the 2-day cycle, that could result in an UP day"

    Premium Trader



    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    With Wednesday not retesting the Weekly 50% level or the 5-day 50% level for a continuation down, the day after normally has an UP day rising up from the 2-day support pattern.

    Price at this stage remains below support (trend guide), and Thursday's UP day has failed to move back above critical levels....


    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex
  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium
  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 3rd September 2009 recap

    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Below the Yearly 50% level @ 4455 and the bias is to continue to drift lower towards the 4th Quarter 50% level.

    Today started with an 'open' trading set-up, that means that the last R42-44 range from the previous day needs to complete before the trading range dynamically shifts forward.

    Price rose upwards into 4442, with matching 5-day filter at the same price.

    Once it hit 4442, there was an expectation of a move down into the 5-day lows @ 4391

    However, the best the SPI could muster was a 21 point down move.





    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis

  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex

  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium

  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 2nd September 2009 recap

    "With the S&P breaking the week 50% level for the first time since June, there is now a bias for the SPI to continue down

    That's going to depend on the Yearly 50% level @ 4455. It has played resistance for a number of days, and also played support for a number of days.

    Below 4455 and the bias is to move down 42-44 points"

    Premium Report



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened below 4455 and continued down 44 points into random support and the 5-day lows.

    At this stage whilst below 4455 the overall view goes back to my original analysis of the market in the 3rd Quarter....

    SPI Futures


    I want to recap on the larger timeframe cycles in the market, and with
    the S&P breaking support after reaching the Yearly 50% level @ 1038, and the
    SPI back below 4455.

    I pointed out that once price reaches the Yearly 50% level often the
    pattern that follows is a move back towards the 4th Quarter 50% level before the trend continues higher.

    Whilst below 4455 in September we can't discount that this is what
    markets are trying to do instead of following the September high pattern.

    More so, because I want to look for the most robust entries if trying
    to capture another Quarterly rise in the market.
    Buying around these highs there is too much risk so I want to BUY support, which is much lower.

    Price can drift lower into the 4th Quarter 50% levels,
    and then continue higher:- monthly 50% level but then continues higher in the
    4th Quarter.

    Or it can drop back down into around the July high breakout.

    I mentioned a number of weeks ago, once price hit the Yearly 50% levels
    I don't want to be BUying stocks unless there is a pullback into the
    Quarterly support levels, and while we are still in the 3rd quarter
    that pullback can be larger if the S&P follows the same pattern after reaching the
    Yearly 50% level.







    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 1st September 09 recap

    "Weekly 50% level support and near the 5-day lows can set-up a higher move on Tuesday.

    However, there is a higher Weekly open ‘sell’ pattern (2-day stall), which often doesn’t continue higher until Wednesday.

    A 2nd day sell pattern from the 5-day 50% levels is a random pattern, which could see price back down into the monthly levels in both markets (lower Daily close)"

    Premium Trader




    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early sell pattern from the 5-day 50% level into the 5-day lows saw buyers come into the market using support:- 5-day lows and Weekly 50% level.

    However, as pointed out this pattern was part of a 2-day stall set-up from the higher weekly open, which often results in a lower daily close.

    If Tuesday had remained above support levels, then Wednesday would normally continue higher into a higher Weekly close.

    Tuesday instead has closed lower breaking support, with now the bias to continue down towards September 50% levels.

    Support now becomes resistance for this week (1012)

    This is the first break of the Weekly 50% level (brown) since the June's highs.

    And important because it's occuring after reaching the Yearly 50% level.

    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex
  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium
  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 1st September 2009 recap

    At this stage there is a view of higher prices in September, however prices can pullback towards the lesser timeframe 50% levels @ 4363-93.

    The 5-day pattern support is @ 4467

    Whilst below this, the expectation is towards the 5-day lows @ 4400

    If the the Yearly 50% level @ 4455 is going to continue to support then the bias is to move back up towards tuesday's highs

    Trend guide 4467

    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI continues to find support above 4455 and the Yearly 50% level, but still trading within the 5-day pattern.

    There was a little teasing with price below 4467 in early trading, but once above 4467 the bias was to continue towards Tuesday's highs @ 4527.

    I have a view of higher prices in September, but at this stage it's trading the 5-day patterns above the Yearly 50% level @ 4455

    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex
  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium
  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 31st August 09 recap

    "5-day lows matches the Weekly 50% levels, and also the August highs, so there is a lot of support around these levels" (2-day support)

    Premium Report



    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    higher Weekly open and the expectation that there is a 2-day stall above support levels.

    A monthly close above August highs and there is an expectation that price can continue towards September's highs.

    If there is going to be a higher move this week it can come from Wednesday onwards....

    However, I would like to see Tuesday hold support as part of the 2nd day stall.


    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex
  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium
  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 31st August 2009 recap

    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    August closes above the August highs @ 4313, with the bias to continue higher towards the September highs.

    Monday moved into the highs and reversed down into the 5-day 50% level.

    Trend guide for the rest of the month will be based on the Weekly support level @ 4363



    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis

  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex

  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium

  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by
    Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)