Index, forex, stocks, Commodities 3rd September 2011 Weekly

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

DOW and S&P Index Futures


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

Gold & Silver Weekly Reports

Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, TLS, Banking Report Update

S&P500 E-mini futures 2nd September 2011 daily recap

After yesterday's price action, September has all the hallmarks of moving towards the Sept lows over the coming 10-days.

Simply trade on the side of the daily 50% level with downside target Friday’s lows (first target 14 points).

S&P Weekly and Daily range.

After Thursday's price action, Friday provided an ideal set-up to capture the September's monthly rejection.

The Daily close below the Weekly level and along with the shift in the daily channels, help set-up a high probability short trade. (first target 14 points...

And then the trend followed the daily range towards Friday's lows

Weekly report out later.

SPI futures Australian Stock Market 2nd September 2011 recap

After yesterday's fake breakout of Thursday's highs, and the failure of the S&P m to continue higher, it now looks more like markets will move lower..

Today:- trend guide 4265.

Break of support @ 4236 look for more weakness towards 4181.

SPI Weekly and Daily cycles

After Yesterday’s breakout failure, today had more reason to sell down using the Monthly 50% level as the trend guide

Along with more weakness with a late close below support @ 4236, but that didn't eventuate towards 4181 (maybe during sycom)

Friday’s sell down has all the hallmarks of following the September low pattern over the next 10-days.

Unless a miracle happens overnight with better than expected payroll numbers in the US overnight….

Current price action suggests more weakness in September

Weekly Reports out tomorrow, which should make for interesting reading.

S&P500 E-mini futures 1st September 2011 daily recap

S&P looks like it wants to go higher, with the Wednesday closing above the Weekly highs and starting the new month above the September 50% levels.

It's simply based on those levels

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

In a bull market or any other positive environment the S&P would have continued higher based on Wednesday's closing price using 1217 as support. (rise 8.5 to 14 points completed), but failure to continue upwards.

And as we know this isn't one of those times, and Thursday's price action reflects that, along with yesterday's  warning in the Australian market (failure to continue with the breakout)

As per Weekly report…..Once the next 5-days are over, then the week after next (Sept 5th) will let us know whether the trend continues down towards the September lows....

Or continues upwards using the September 50% level as the trend guide

And it's starting to look like it's going lower, if it begins trading below the Weekly level @ 1197.50

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 1st September 2011 recap

With the SPI opening above the Weekly level @ 4305, & the trend bias looks like its going to continue up towards the Weekly highs @ 4379.

Partial exit 42 points up at next spiral filter @ 4349

SPI Weekly and Daily Cycles

1st of the month saw buying come into the market with a breakout of the daily highs.

This was helped by the Thursday trading above the Weekly level @ 4305, and the market beginning the new month above the September 50% level @ 4265.

This saw the market rally 42 points, but instead of continuing towards the weekly highs @ 4379, the market reversed down from the spiral filter @ 4349.

More weakness hit the market when the intra-day closed below Thursday’s highs @ 4320, and we can now see price rotate back down towards the September 50% level @ 4265.

Current price action doesn’t bode well for a first week of the new month rally towards 4564, as we don't have a daily break and extend pattern:-  Thursday’s highs towards new highs on Friday

As per Weekly report…..Once the next 5-days are over, then the week after next (Sept 5th) will let us know whether the trend continues down towards the September lows....

Or continues upwards using the September 50% level as the trend guide;- target 4564

Note:- S&P 500 on Thursday has closed above its Weekly highs, and new September 50% level

S&P 500 E-mini 31st August 2011 recap

"no probability pattern for Wednesday, use the levels in the daily range looking for short-term moves"

S&P Weekly and Daily range.

S&P continued upwards from the Daily level @ 1206 reaching the Daily highs. which once again formed resistance @ 1229 pushing the S&P back down

Last day of the month, and we can see the trend will be defined by the new monthly levels in September from tomorrow onwards

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 31st August 2011 recap

Expected trading range between 4236 and 4281 (about 42 points).

This could result in price moving down into 4236, but then finding support and swinging back towards 4262, and then 4281

SPI Weekly and Daily cycles

The SPI didn’t move down into support @ 4236, but it followed a higher daily close towards 4281 (42 point range)

Last day of the month and the market continues to remain around the August lows, as it forms resistance.

That resistance disappears tomorrow, and we can also see the position of the September 50% level.

Last year the market rallied on the 1st of September towards the single monthly highs (currently 4549) over the first 5-days of the new month.

The only difference being is that last year the market was above the Yearly 50% level, whilst this year it's below.

S&P 500 E-mini futures 30th August 2011 Daily recap

There are two patterns at play on Tuesday

#1) rises up from 1197-1199 (8.5 to 14 points)
#2) reaches the highs (1218 to 1222) but reverses back down. (Daily report)

S&P 500 Weekly and Daily

Because there was a breakout of Monday's highs, there's an expectation that the trend will continue upwards, as part of a break and extend pattern in the daily range

This was helped by the Weekly level @ 1197.25 and also the red daily filter

Day traders first targets upwards were reached 8.5 to 14 points. ($700)

The market then continued towards the Weekly highs @ 1218, which was seen as resistance, providing another 8.5 to 14 point reversal down into the close.

Things get extremely interesting from Thursday onwards if below 1197

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 30th August 2011

Normally August lows are seen as resistance until Thursday..

Weekly 4305 and Daily highs @ 4302 ;- resistance down 42 points

SPI Weekly and Daily cycles.

The SPI is back into the Weekly level @ 4305, which coincides with the August lows and Tuesday's highs.

This was seen as resistance (42 point down move)

Normally the market remains below these levels over the next 2-days, as the August lows continue to form resistance…

If the market is going to continue higher, then from Thursday onwards  would be the ideal pattern, as resistance levels disappear, and also the SPI will begin trading above the new monthly 50% level in September :- which could see a target of 4555 + over the next 5 to 10-days

This is a similar pattern as in 2010. The only difference is this 3rd Quarter is different compared to last year. This year being more bearish as it's trading below the Yearly 50% level @ 4625, whilst last year was above.

As noted in the Weekly report…..

Once the next 5-days are over, then the week after next will let us know whether the trend continues towards the September low pattern using the Monthly 50% level as the trend guide....

Or moves upwards using the September 50% level as the trend guide.

S&P 500 E-mini futures 29th August 2011 recap

Resistance 1197-1199

Either Monday forms resistance, or it continues towards the Weekly highs @ 1217 over the next 2-days.

S&P Weekly and daily cycles

Early rise upwards from 1174 during globex hours on Sunday has seen the market continue towards the Weekly & Daily highs @ 1197-99 without providing much resistance. (8.5 points)

As per weekly report, my hunch is that the market would continue back towards the weekly highs @ 1217, this is because price is rotating back towards the monthly 50% levels (September).

Note:- S&P 500 has once again stalled at the 3rd Quarterly level @ 1208.50

SPI futures Australian Stock Market 29th August 2011 recap

Trend guide 4221

Monday's trading is based on whether this week continues to move up towards  4305…or revisits the Weekly 50% level @ 4129

My hunch it's going to continue upwards (90 minute close above 4243 will see more gains

SPI Weekly and daily

Early selling pressure (21 points) but 4221 held support and then confirmed with a 90 minute close above 4243.

This pushed the SPI towards higher highs.

The Market is still below the August lows, and these lows could continue to form resistance until Thursday