Index, forex, stocks, Commodities 13th August 2011 Weekly

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

DOW and S&P Index Futures


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

Gold & Silver Weekly Reports

Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, TLS, Banking Report Update

DOW S&P futures E-mini 12th August 2011 recap

Friday is the first day that the market is starting above the 5-day 50% level., which has a bias to move upwards, using the 50% levels as support…

DOW S&P Daily cycles

S&P didn’t move down into the daily 50% level for an ideal long set-up towards and higher Friday close.

However, for those that trade both the DOW and S&P, the DOW provided an ideal long set-up and move up towards the Daily channel highs of 250+ points

Weekly report out later

SPI futures 12th August 2011 recap

My view is that price will close the Gap from Yesterday. (42 points down)

That could happen from the spiral filter @ 4170

or from Friday's highs (resistance)

SPI Weekly and Daily

Higher daily open and sell down from the spiral filter and Friday’s highs closing Thursday gap of 42 points.

As per last week's report, My original view was for the market to move up towards the weekly 50% level and then be rejected back downward.

However, because the S&P has already reached the August lows, and has fast forward the price action....

There is still the possibility that the trend continues upwards, as part of the 3rd Week counter-trend move (next week) towards (#B) 4404.

The Primary level @ 4137 comes into play once again (next week)

Weekly report out tomorrow

S&P 500 E-mini futures 11th augst 2011 recap

5-day 50% level the trend guide

Resistance channel highs @ 1179

Support channel lows @ 1113.50, which align with August lows

S&P Weekly and Daily

Another higher daily open and sell-down from the 5-day 50% level into the channel lows, whilst the channel highs provided the ideal resistance zone.

S&P remains volatile, as the market continues to consolidate within the daily channels, whilst the August lows @ 1115 continues to support the current trend.

SPI futures Daily 11th August 2011 recap

Trend guide 3998

First target 4045 (5-day 50% level)

SPI Weekly and daily cycles

I only had 1 view, and that was to use the trend guide @ 3998 to trade up towards the 5-day 50% level @ 4045.

I'm so used to the market only moving 42 points in a day, that I easily forget how much volatility is in the market on an intra-day basis. Today moving 2x84 points from bottom to top.

Any further gains tomorrow should see the market continue towards the Weekly 50% level @ 4207.

Otherwise, there is still the potential that Friday closes near the Weekly lows, and then we see further upside next week.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 10th August 2011 recap

the S&P 500 has failed to remain above key primary 50% level @ 1173, which may result in Wednesday moving lower

Target channel lows @ 1136.50;- random support 14 points

Below channel lows and trend bias is to continue down into Wednesday’s lows

S&P Weekly and Daily range

Higher daily open on Wednesday and a sell down using 1173 as the trend guide (primary 50% level)

This provided over a 30-point move down into 1136.50 (low 1134.75), which then provide a precise 14-point rise.

Once the 14 point rise was over, the trend proceeded downward, with the August lows @ 1115 is once again supporting the market, and is likely to do so for the next couple of days until this 5-day cycle is over

SPI futures Australian Stock Market 10th August 2011 recap

Overall trend bias is to continue up towards 4207 (weekly 50% level)

However, my view is that 4124 can act as resistance and reverse down 42 points towards 4087

Then 4087 can act as support

SPI Weekly and Daily range.

Market didn’t open @ 4124 to sell the open, instead the market continued down 42 points providing support @ 4087, which then move to a high @ 4124 later in the day

Resulting in  Wednesday consolidating in a tight trading range of 42 points.

The trend bias is to continue up towards the Weekly 50% level by Friday…

However, that will depend on how the S&P responds to it’s Primary 50% level @ 1173, which is currently acting as resistance.

S&P Futures E-mini 9th August 2011 recap

Support Tuesday’s lows, & two resistance levels intra-day (14 points)

If above 1120 then it’s retesting the Daily 50% level @ 1246, which matches Monday’s breakout :- Resistance 14 points.

Note:- don’t short above 1246, as the market will continue upwards, as part of it already reaching the August lows

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

There were two patterns at play today…

Either the market was going to remain range bound below 1120 and retest Tuesday’s lows, find support, and then close higher

Or it was going to continue upwards and retest Monday’s breakout and form resistance @ 1246, which it did, providing two 14 point reversal patterns.

However, with the S&P moving down into the August lows @ 1115 quicker than expected, there was always the potential for the market to bounce and follow the original pattern of retesting the Weekly 50% level, as part of a large counter-trend move upwards.

My view was that it was going to happen next week, but it looks like it happening this week.

Any further gains in the short-term will see the S&P continue towards the 3rd quarterly level @ 1208.50, and maybe as high as the Weekly level @ 1239 by Friday

SPI futures 9th August 2011 recap

SPI Weekly and Daily range

Daily chart says it all, because I never saw it coming today, even though a counter-trend move upwards was always going to happen.

However, My expectation was for the market to remain below 4855 and move down into 3690.

Today's price action has moved back to close Monday's breakout...

along with the possibility that the market could make its way back towards my original view of retesting the Weekly 50% level, if US markets follow the same pattern

S&P 500 Emini futures 8th August 2011 Daily recap

Trend guide 1169.50 (whilst above expectation the market is moving up into the daily 50% level (8.5 to 14 points)

High risk trading longs below 1144 (Daily and Weekly lows)

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

Early rise upwards during globex trading hours (14 points), and as noted in the Weekly report, my view was that the market would swing back towards the Weekly levels (resistance) over the first 2-days, and then continue back down.

However, I didn’t know how the market would respond to the downgrade, and it responded with a breakout of the Daily and Weekly lows @ 1144, and a move down into the august lows @ 1115

Continue below....

S&P Primary and Monthly cycles

As per Weekly report…..

"the trend can often drop down from those levels and continue down into the August lows later this Month @ 1115…Those August lows, will once again be another long term swing point (BUY), that should see the market stabilise and move upwards into a large consolidation pattern for the rest of 2011"

The speed of the move down into the August lows has happen much quicker than expected, and the price action doesn’t warrant the market finding support at these lows and moving into the consolidation pattern for the rest of 2011.

Any upside from these levels will need to confirmed after this 5-day cycle, as I wasn’t expecting a large 3-5 day counter-trend move until next week.

That means the trend can continue to drop down into the 2011 lows @ 1045, whilst 1069/1073 so act as resistance during the current 3-quarter.

SPI Futures Daily 8th August 2011 recap

Support Monday’s lows @ 3967

Looking for a gap closure to Friday’s lows @ 4039, as part of swing towards the Weekly 50% level @ 4207

SPI Weekly and Daily cycles

As per Weekly report, I’m looking for the market to move into a short-term counter-trend move upwards, before it continues down into this week’s lows:- break and extend pattern in the Weekly cycles.

Monday’s support and gap closure played out precisely, but it then failed to continue upwards, moving back under support @ 3967 and now heading towards the Weekly lows.

If the SPI does continue higher in the short-term then it will have to be on the back of the S&P following the same upward move

But at this stage the S&P is trading below higher timeframe support levels @ 1169/1173.