Index Futures & Stock Reports 28 Nov 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update




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    • Posted by

    DOW Futures Daily 27 Nov 2009 recap

    "Price is currently below Thursday's 5-day lows...

    Therefore there is a bias to move down into Friday's lows.

    Friday's 5-day lows will go close to matching the Weekly 50% levels.


    Because there is a change of the 3-day cycle which can lead to a 2-day reversal, then the 5-day lows on Friday are random support levels"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Thursday's breakout of the 3-day cycle and continuation down into the Weekly 50% level on Friday provided a robust swing trade (random length).

    This pattern and position of the higher timeframe dynamic patterns and Friday's matching support, will often produce a 1/2-day reversal back towards the original breakout the day after.

    Weekly report out later




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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 27th November 2009 recap

    "Today's trading will be based on the 5-day range.

    Depending on where the market opens, if price is below the 5-day lows the view is to continue down towards the November 50% levels @ 4576"



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    Lower open and moved down into the November 50% level, which saw the SPI rotate in 42 point RANGES around the lows.

    The trend guide on the SPI in the short-term is next Week’s December 50% level.

    Whilst below the December 50% level next week there is a bias to move down.

    If S&P find supports using the Weekly 50% level and lower Weekly open, which was the original view for any further gains, then the SPI will most likely open above the December 50% level and push upwards into Friday.

    Weekly report out tomorrow, based on the price action in the US markets on Friday and whether the Weekly 50% levels hold support.




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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 26 Nov 09 recap

    "US markets continue to fail to reach the 5-day highs and Weekly highs.
    Based on the current price action Thursday's support levels would be the trend guide today.

    1097.50 is the critical level on the S&P 500


    Below support is a random pattern, that may or may not move down into the 5-day lows"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Break of support and rotation down into the 5-day lows and moving down into the Weekly 50% level, which is what I've wanted to happen earlier in the week.

    US markets closed for public holiday, but it didn't stop the futures markets reversing down, as part of a rotation towards the higher timeframe 50% levels nearing the end of the month.

    Once again I was hoping for the 5-day highs to reach on either Wednesday or Thursday

    Any futhur upside will need to be verfied by a lower Weekly open and support.



    Posted by

    SPI Daily 26th November 2009 recap

    "Expectation this week was for the SPI to continue higher from Wednesday and move into a higher Weekly close by Friday.

    Resistance 4781

    Support 4735

    We have seen the price action this week continually go looking for the brown filter as the market continues to consolidate.

    Below support and downside target is 4712"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    With the market opening higher but no resistance until 4781 the expectation was either price was going to rise up into 4781 and then reverse down into support @ 4732-35....

    Or move down into support and then rise upwards into 4781.

    As pointed out in the premium report.....

    "even though Tuesday reversed down and moved back into the brown filter, whilst price is above the blue channels and 5-day 50% level I will always view these levels as support until proven otherwise"

    Because once support fails there is already a pattern that has been playing out for the past 2 weeks:- market rotation into the midpoints @ 4712 and more consolidation until the end of the month.







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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 25 Nov 09 recap

    "Based on this week’s price action I favour a continuation towards the Weekly highs.

    Support:- Yellow

    Either price continues upwards into Wednesday's highs, or Wednesday remains choppy coming in Thanks giving on Thursday"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Wednesday ends in a small range day abvoe Yellow support with an upward bias....


    Posted by

    SPI Daily 25th November 2009 recap

    "Because of the position of the Weekly 50% levels I'm not factoring a down day, however because of the position on the spiral filter price can remain choppy around 4710

    Support 4673
    Resistance 4736"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Because of the price action and where the SPI was trading in the 5-day pattern, the only conclusion I could make was a choppy trading trade around 4710, and range bound within the channels.

    With a lack of any weakness in the US markets over the first 2-days, the normal cycle would have the SPI rising upwards from these levels on Wednesday and have a higher Weekly close by Friday.

    In the larger timeframe cycles the SPI direction was going to be defined by the price action in the S&P 500 in the first two days. I mentioned early last week that if US markets remained supported by Tuesday the SPI was most likely continue higher coming into December from Wednesday.

    Normally this price action in the SPI would be matched by a mirror image of the S&P rising up from their Weekly 50% levels and/or 5-day lows on Tuesday, except this isn’t the case, as the S&P 500 continues to trading around it’s highs.

    However, based on the current price action in both markets and my view since early last week, the bias for the SPI is to continue towards into higher highs in December.

    With US markets having thanksgiving on Thursday and a half trading day on Friday, that completion of the move towards the Weekly highs might not playout and remain range bound until December.

    The December 50% level will be the trend guide for the last month of the Quarter

    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 24 Nov 09 recap

    "This UP move on Monday would be closely followed by another UP move on Tuesday towards the highs:- lower Weekly open and 2-day UP move.

    If that's the case then 'support' for a continuation into Tuesday's highs"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    With favourable 3rd Quarter GBP report, I would have thought that US markets would have completed the push up from support and into Tuesday’s highs.

    Instead price continues to remain in a tight trading range below the 3-day cycle lows.




    Posted by

    SPI Daily 24th November 2009 recap

    "Today should be viewed as part of a lower Weekly open and a 2nd day UP move towards Tuesday's highs....

    Support 4743"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    With today’s open and above support levels @ 4743 (5-day 50% level) along with price rising up from the lows yesterday, I had an expectation that price would continue with a higher move as part of a 2nd day rise from the Weekly 50% levels towards Tuesday's highs @ 4812.

    Price was above the channel and not inside the channel (4734), so the only expectation I had was a continuation up.

    Instead price opened higher moved back down into support, and kept on going.

    We have now a 2nd trading day completed and moving into Wednesday, which will be heavily influenced by the price action in the US on Tuesday. And that's been my view for this week.

    "Is the SPI going to continue higher in December, or is the SPI going to continue down?..That's going to depend on the price action in the S&P 500 over the next 2 days " Weekly Report

    With GDP figures coming out on Tuesday @ 8.30am NY time, it will be interesting to see how price reacts to the report and what happens if Tuesday begins trading below the 5-day 50% levels in US markets.








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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 23 Nov 09 recap

    "Last week of the month and price action favours a rotation back towards the monthly 50% levels, with a short-term target of the Weekly 50% levels by Tuesday @ 1076

    However, I'm not sure that there is going to be a similar reversal pattern as the last week of October, because the market dynamics are completely different.

    we are now in a new 3-month cycle that can continue higher in December, especially if Tuesday finds support around the Weekly 50% level and closes higher.

    Don’t short trade above 1097.50"




    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P 500 moves back above 1097.50 and continues into Monday's highs and mostly like continue up towards the Weekly highs this week.

    I was bearish at the start of the week simply because of the price action and 3-day cycle breakout from Thursday.

    My ideal pattern to trade any long positions during this week would have been a 2-day reversal down into the weekly 50% levels and then use those levels as support, and verify any upside from Wednesday onwards.

    Once above 1097.50, it was above the 5-day 50% level and also back above the 3-day cycle breakout:- new trading week and 2-day UP move....

    And the S&P 500 is back inside the 5-day pattern range and following the Weekly highs once again.



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 23rd November 2009 recap

    Last Week closed below the support levels, but this week will be trading above the support levels.

    Monday's trading will be based on whether the SPI will begin with a 2-day reversal pattern upwards....

    Based on Friday's trading and the spiral filter, I have to favour price rising upwards to complete the Range @ 4724.

    Resistance 4727.

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    SPI Weekly (day session) and 5-day pattern (range)

    Today’s early upward bias aligned with the Weekly 50% level and Friday’s spiral low and support.

    However my expectation was that price on Monday would struggle to rise higher than the levels in the 5-day range.

    Expectation 4727 could push the SPI back down 21 points and remain in a consolidating pattern, but there was a slight push wards into 4739, and then the SPI moved into a consolidating pattern and 21 point reversal.


    As pointed out early last week:- lower Friday close into support levels and this normally favours a lower Weekly open and a continuation upwards into higher highs over the next 2 weeks.

    Normal price action would begin with a 2-day reversal back towards 4797, as the first pattern and then continue upwards in December.

    However, it’s not the price action in the SPI, it’s the price action in the S&P 500 over the next 2 days that’s going to validate that happening.

    Currently the price action in the S&P 500 is bearish in the short-term: - below 1097.50, and whilst below this level I have a view that the S&P 500 is trying to make its way down into the Weekly 50% level over the next 2-days.

    I have a conflicting pattern in the S&P 500 to confirm any higher moves in the SPI at this stage.







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