SPI Daily 25th November 2009 recap

"Because of the position of the Weekly 50% levels I'm not factoring a down day, however because of the position on the spiral filter price can remain choppy around 4710

Support 4673
Resistance 4736"


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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Because of the price action and where the SPI was trading in the 5-day pattern, the only conclusion I could make was a choppy trading trade around 4710, and range bound within the channels.

With a lack of any weakness in the US markets over the first 2-days, the normal cycle would have the SPI rising upwards from these levels on Wednesday and have a higher Weekly close by Friday.

In the larger timeframe cycles the SPI direction was going to be defined by the price action in the S&P 500 in the first two days. I mentioned early last week that if US markets remained supported by Tuesday the SPI was most likely continue higher coming into December from Wednesday.

Normally this price action in the SPI would be matched by a mirror image of the S&P rising up from their Weekly 50% levels and/or 5-day lows on Tuesday, except this isn’t the case, as the S&P 500 continues to trading around it’s highs.

However, based on the current price action in both markets and my view since early last week, the bias for the SPI is to continue towards into higher highs in December.

With US markets having thanksgiving on Thursday and a half trading day on Friday, that completion of the move towards the Weekly highs might not playout and remain range bound until December.

The December 50% level will be the trend guide for the last month of the Quarter