Index Futures & Stock Reports 14 Nov 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update


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S&P (e-mini ) 13 Nov 09 recap

"2-day reversal from the highs and lower target is the 3-day cycle lows (white)

However, Friday is going to begin the day above the 5-day 50% level, which at this stage doesn't confirm the 2nd day reversal pattern

If price is above the 5-day 50% level then it's a random pattern with an upward bias"

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S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Expectation of a 3-day rally and 2-day reversal for this week nearly played out except for Friday.

I know my 5-day patterns and higher timeframe levels quiet well, and when Thursday didn't close below the 5-day 50% level, there was a bias to have an UP day, whilst remaning around the higher timeframe resistance levels.

Weekly report out later





Posted by

SPI Daily 13th November 2009 recap

SPI moving down into support levels, and in theory should find support around the 5-day 50% levels and rise 42 points upwards, and then continue up towards the November highs next week.

Support 7404

Trend guide 4733.

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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern


Today’s price action was part of the 3-day rally into the higher Thursday open and 2-day reversal into support.

There was an expectation that there would be early support around the 5-day 50% level , but the critical level was 4733.

For the SPI to continue higher it needed to be trading above this level, instead 4733 capped price from rising most of the day and the SPI remained range bound between the key levels in the 5- day range:- 4704 & 4733.

Any continuation up, or the SPI opens much lower will depend on US price action on Friday.

Weekly report out tomorrow.




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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 12 Nov 09 recap

    "My original view of a 3-day rally and Thursday reversal (sell):- Weekly resistance levels.

    Thursday isn’t a BUY day around Yellow support"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    Thursday reverses down into the 5-day 50% level, which was my expectation on Wednesday's high.

    Friday is now about whether price continues back towards the highs or continues back down into the Weekly 50% levels.

    Normally if the latter was going to occur, Thursday would have closed below the 50% levels.




    Posted by

    SPI Daily 12th November 2009 recap


    "Based on my view on the SPI, this higher daily open on Thursday is part of a 2-day reversal pattern down into support:- 5-day 50% level.

    Resistance 4800-805."

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Expectation that the SPI would begin to slowly unwind and move back down towards the 5-day 50% levels over the next 2-days.

    As per Monday’s Premium Report... “If I’m right this up leg should continue into a higher Daily open on Thursday where I’ll exit my stocks:- Sell open on Thursday"

    There was an expectation that price would push up into 4800 and then reverse back down and continue down for most of the day.

    This early push down from 4800 i 4775 matched the first R42 reversal pattern in the 24 hour market.

    At 11:30 unemployment figures came out kicking the SPI upwards into 4805, and then it once again began to drift back down, and continuing down as part of the reversal pattern.

    At this stage this is viewed as a 2-day reversal pattern back down into Weekly 50% level support levels.

    If the market is going to go higher, then next week's open should align with support.

    If the SPI is opening below 4615 next week, then there is probably more weakness to come depending on the price action in the S&P 500





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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 11 Nov 09 recap

    "S&P:- . Wednesday moves into the highs and reverses back down into yellow support...

    Below yellow support and there's possibility of a reversal down into the 5-day 50% level.

    S&P resistance 1103"

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    S&P Weekly 5-day pattern.

    Weekly high resistance @ 1103 and reversal down into support @ 1092.25.

    Ideally the pattern would have been for the S&P to break support and reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level, as part of a reversal back down into the Weekly 50% levels by Friday.

    Today's price action suggests that the S&P will hang around these highs until Friday.



    Posted by

    SPI Daily 11th November 2009 recap

    "If the SPI is going to follow the 3-day rally into the highs, then price is going to follow the 5-day range towards Wednesday's highs.

    Today's trading should be defined by price trading above Tuesday's highs @ 4744 and completing the first R42 range upwards"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI continued the 3-day pattern with today's open and first move range towards the spiral top @ 4775...

    However, it was a bit disappointing that price didn't continue higher on Wednesday and follow the move towards the highs on Wednesday.

    That completes the 3-day UP move this week, therefore any continuation upwards will have to be based on price action in the S&P 500, which already trading around resistance zones.



    Posted by

    DOW S&P Daily 10 Nov 2009 recap

    "Based on this week’s pattern I’m looking for this trend to continue into a higher Wednesday. This is part of SET-UP B

    Based on Monday’s 5-day breakout pattern.

    Price can continue to move upwards into Tuesday’s highs:- break & extend"

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    DOW and S&P monthly

    This week's up trend is based on the first 3-days rising into a higher Wednesday.

    This is a continuation of SET-UP B:- November 50% levels support and moving back towards the highs.

    There was a breakout on Monday so the expectation is to continue higher on Tuesday

    We can see the DOW breaking above the November highs, whilst the S&P remains below those levels, so it will be interesting to see where Wednesday closes.

    I have a higher target on the DOW @ 10709 (December), with the S&P @ 1126, but whether it gets to those levels will be based on Wednesday's close, and subsequent two day pattern thereafter into Friday's close.



    Lesser timeframe levels and 5-day pattern in the Premium Report



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 10th November 2009 recap

    Today:- resistance @ 4784.

    This is a breakout and extend pattern from Monday.

    Expectation 1X42 point reversal down from resistance    "

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern



    Today’s price action was a break and extend pattern from Monday into Tuesday’s highs @ 4784, and then the expectation that price would complete a 1x42 point rotation down and consolidate above support.

    Because i'm looking for higher prices this week, my view was only a 1X 42 point reversal down today from Tuesday's highs.

    "If price opens above 4756 then the expectation price should push upwards into the highs @ 4777-84"

    This pattern played out, completing the R42 spiral top and resistance providing a higher probability short-term reversal.

    Monday was the start of a 3-day rally this week, and if I'm right this rally should continue into a higher Thursday open and trading around November highs.

    If not, and price is opening below the Weekly 50% level tomorrow, then there is a pullback into the 3-day cycle lows, which matches the November 50% level.

    I'm not expecting that to happen overnight, but it depends on how US markets respond to their November highs on Tuesday.

    Eventually price will c0me back and retest the 5-day high breakout from Monday, and matching 5-day 50% level, and hopefully that occurs from higher prices on Thursday and not overnight.






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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 9 Nov 09 recap

    "Bullish on US markets as part of SET UP B.

    Above the Weekly 50% levels on Monday and I would favour a Monday high break and continuation upwards into Tuesday.

    As long as the S&P is above 1063, the market is going up towards the November highs"    .


    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P continues with SET-UP B, with Monday's breakout and extension upwards into Tuesday.

    This is part of a 3-day rally this week, after last weeks November 50% level support.



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 9th November 2009 recap

    "Single Yearly 50% level support @ 4455 last week and now trading back above the 3-week lows and the 3-month 50% levels.

    If the SPI is going to go higher it will need to be breaking out the Monday high @ 4632: break and extend pattern into Tuesday high"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    5-day high breakout and the expectation is that price should continue upwards overnight and open higher on Tuesday, as long as the S&P 500 remains above 1063.

    At the start of the day I expected the SPI to move up into 4630, because of the spiral filter pattern.

    However, around 4630 it was a random pattern, as I didn’t know whether the SPI would breakout or reverse back down into 4577.

    This is based on the 5-day high & the higher Weekly open (resistance & below the Weekly 50% level), and also last Friday's change of the 3-day cycle, which often has a 1-day reversal pattern into support (4577).

    As mentioned in the US Weekly report on the 31st October….

    "Robust swing points to trade longs from lower prices from next Friday. The trend would continue down another week, but then provide support next Friday and for a large 3-day counter-trend rally back upwards the week after that"...


    There wasn’t a lower Friday close but a higher Friday close (last week), and the large 3-day rally began and verified with today's breakout above 4632.

    It was just a matter of getting into the trend (breakout) and understanding the market structure and this week’s trading.


    The continuation upwards into Tuesday's high is now up to the price action in the S&P 500.(read US Weekly report)

    And a 3-day rally will take it towards the November highs.





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