SPI Daily and CBA Monthly
SPI Monthly and Weekly (24 hours)
As we can see, the SPI hit the 3-week highs overnight and the market was driven down by sellers hitting the Financials.
Sellers also hit the Weekly highs in the US markets late on Monday.
These 3-week highs are robust resistance zones and price can easily continue down towards December's lows, as it follows the double Monthly low pattern:- SET UP A.
SET UP B:- is what I think will happen
The SPI to consolidate below the 3-week highs until it gets closer to Friday, and if Price is trading around the Weekly highs (not below the Weekly 50% ) there is a possibility of a breakout (Friday close) and then beginning of the move towards December 50% level @ 4051.
Expectation that December 50% level will stall the market, but then continue higher in January.
This higher move in January will rotate back to the new 1st Quarter 50% level in 2009.
This also matches the breakout of the 2008 lows :- retest the break.
Two important patterns in SET-UP B are :- the retest of the Primary breakout in 2008 (Yearly), but also the alignment of the 'Thrust pattern' in the secondary timeframe (Quarterly) , resulting in a new down trend in 2009.
SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern 16:10
Expectation of higher prices this week with the shift in the Weekly 50% level to below price.
And Monday's trading was the first stage with price rising above the 5-day 50% level pushing 87 points from today's lows.
For this week to continue higher I would like the SPI to move back down into the 5-day 50% level tomorrow and test support before it continues higher...
Unless US markets do that for us on Monday.
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