Index, Forex, Stocks 22nd Jan 2011 Weekly

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

US Dollar INDEX, AUD/USD, EUR/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/

OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, TLS, and Banking Report Update

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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 21st January 2010 Recap

    My view is for the market to continue down, but remain within the daily range.

    Resistance :- daily 50% level

    If for some reason the market is trading above 1281.50 the next level up is 1288.75    .

    S&P Weekly and daily range

    As you might be aware I’ve been bearish on US markets this week.

    My preferred pattern on Friday would have been for the market to continue down into the Weekly 50% level and Friday’s lows @ 1264, and then open up below 1274 (next week) then continue down with a first target @ 1258.

    However, Friday didn’t play out as expected, instead moving up towards the secondary resistance level @ 1288.75 and then closing in the middle of the range.

    For the trend to continue down it needs to be trading below 1274. (selling down from the January 50% level @ 1280) and that’s my continued focus at this stage

    But because of Friday’s price action, I’ve seen on many occasion the following week actually push upwards from the Weekly 50% level and move back towards the highs.

    So my view of continuing lower early next week might not play out as expected.

    Weekly report out later.



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 21st January 2011 daily recap

    Based on the levels in the daily range, it looks like it wants to continue down into Friday's lows @ 4725

    Resistance 4773

    Random support 4725.



    SPI Weekly and Daily range

    This week has seen the market rise upwards from the Weekly 50% level into a double Weekly high pattern @ 4828.

    And the rest of the week has rotated back down into Friday's lows, using ideal set-ups within the daily range (brown filter)

    The market still remains above the January 50% level @ 4073, and we could see a minor swing upwards early next week.

    However, as mentioned a number of times, it's the price action the S&P 500 that's the concern, and I think US markets are rotating down from their January highs, which is putting pressure on global equity markets.

    Weekly report out tomorrow




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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 20th January 2010 Recap

    my view is that the S&P will try and move down, but likely to remain within the Daily lows.
    (support)

    Resistance @ 1283.50




    S&P Weekly and Daily range

    S&P pushed lower and remained within the daily lows. (8.5 point range)

    As noted in last night’s report….


    If the market is going to continue down from the January highs,

    What basically needs to happen is that, Thursday and Friday need to continue down into the Weekly 50% level @ 1264, swing upwards on Monday and then sell off from 1280 early next week and down into the (3-week lows)

    The 3-week lows may support the market, but it has less probability after the January highs have already been reached.


    And Thursday was the first day of trying to move down into the Weekly 50% level @ 1264



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 20th January 2011 daily recap

    We have reached a double Weekly top @ 4828, and a failure to continue higher after yesterdays' 5-day breakout @ 4810, due to the S&P reversing down to 1277.

    Based on the current price action: - 4795/99 is seen as resistance with a trend bias to move down.



    SPI Weekly and Daily range

    SPI opened on resistance levels @ 4795/99 and continued to drift down into a lower daily close

    There were a number of patterns that suggested the Thursday would move down after yesterday’s double Weekly high @ 4828

    But it was the shift in the 5-day 50% level @ 4795 and brown filter that provided the ideal entry level



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 19th January 2010 Recap

    Resistance today @ 1295.50 & Wednesday’s daily highs

    Two Possible patterns today:-

    #1 Remains within the Daily range (highs and the 50% level)

    #2 Reverses down into the Daily lows, which matches the Weekly 50% level @ 1277


    S&P Weekly and daily range.

    Wednesday was either going to push upwards into the daily highs and reverse down, or it was going to continue down from 1295.50.

    S&P in the end followed the expectation that I had on Tuesday of reversing down into 1277, as part of the 2nd day reversal pattern

    1277 can act as random support for the rest of the week…

    However, around these highs in January, it’s all about finding levels to short the market from and start holding positions.

    Simply because I believe there’s far more chance of the market heading lower, than continually making incremental higher highs.

    The S&P doesn't need to reach a precise 1300 during the first quarter to continue down.



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 19th January 2011 daily recap

    Based on the current price action my view is that the SPI will continue to move towards the January highs @ 4844, with the levels providing less resistance than on other occasions.

    Support 4774

    Likely to breakout of the Daily highs and continue upwards.



    SPI Weekly and Daily.


    Ideal set-up today aligned with price moving down into 4774, and then validating it with the closure above 4780

    As noted 2-days ago, and with today’s morning report…

    Daily and Weekly highs have less probability of resisting this week’s trend, as it moves towards monthly highs @ 4844.

    And Wednesday continues upwards as part of trend that started from last week’s lows @ 4675, followed by a breakout of the highs....

    And likely to move towards tomorrow's daily highs.



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 18th January 2010 Recap

    below 1291.75, the trend bias is down as part of a 2-day reversal pattern

    Trend guide 1288:- minimum move 8.5

    If above 1288, trend likely to continue towards the Weekly highs.



    S&P Weekly and Daily range


    As per Weekly report, I was looking for the first 2-days of the week to move downward into 1277. (Weekly level)

    Normal set-up on the 2nd day was to use the channel highs @1288 as the secondary set-up after the first day’s 8.5 reversal.

    However, there are two other patterns that are trying to push the market higher:-

    1 last week’s breakout of the Weekly highs normally extends up towards this week’s highs

    2. Primary Trend is to continue towards 1300

    Once the S&P started to trade above 1288, the trend bias was to push upwards and follow the Weekly trend



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 18th January 2011 daily recap

    Based on the current price action, I'm bullish on the Australian market to rise upwards.

    Today:- Trend guide 4753, with a swing back towards 4779




    SPI Weekly and Daily range.


    As illustrated in my new book ...Price moves up into the Weekly highs and then reverses down into the Weekly 50% level…and then continues towards the monthly highs later in the same month, using the previous monthly lows as support

    And this is the current price action we have in the market after finding support @ 4675 last week…

    Followed by a move towards last week's highs, then yesterday’s reversal down into the Weekly 50% level @ 4741, and lastly today's move back towards the highs using 4753 as support.

    First target today was 4778, and then the SPI continued from yesterday’s spiral filter low @ 4744 to today’s spiral filter high @ 4794. (pink to pink)

    At this stage my view is that the market will continue towards the January highs…

    However, the price action will be determined by the S&P remaining stable, which is never guaranteed at these upper levels.

    As per weekly report in the S&P, 1291.75 has provided a 8.5 reversal from yesterday's high (1291.50) on the S&P. (partial exit)

    I'm treating Tuesday as part of a 2nd day reversal, as long as it remains below the same level.

    Otherwise the Primary trend will continue to push up towards 1300, and the DOW follows, as it lags with its own Primary cycle highs @ 11904

    And the SPI continues towards its own monthly highs in January.


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 17th January 2011 daily recap

    resistance levels around 4810-14.

    Trend guide 4790

    Below 4790 and expectation the market is moving down 42 points towards the 50% level @ 4752.



    SPI Weekly and Daily range

    The SPI didn’t align with resistance levels today, but the selling took place once price moved below 4790.

    The market has moved down further than the 5-day 50% level and into the Weekly 50% level @ 4741, finding support.

    As pointed out in my new book….

    Price moves up into the Weekly highs and then reverses down into the Weekly 50% level…and then continues towards the monthly highs later this month, using previous monthly support @ (4675)

    Therefore I’m expecting the SPI market to continue higher, based on the current price action, but US markets aren’t in synch.

    The S&P is completing it’s Primary cycle top, that could see a reversal pattern towards lower Weekly levels (patterns need to be verified with less timeframe set-ups)

    Public holiday in the US overnight won’t provide too many leads other than the S&P reversing down from my first resistance zone, as stated in the Weekly report @ 1291.75 (high @ 1291.50 during globex hours)



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