Index Futures, Forex Reports 20th June 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/





Posted by

S&P 500 Daily 19th June 2009 recap

"Do US markets continue to move up towards the Weekly 50% levels on Friday: resistance

or

do they have a similar day as the Australian market and close on or near its lows.

No probability pattern on Friday"

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S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Flat trading day on Friday, and the trading week ends up consolidating between the Weekly 50% level and the Monthly balance point.

Next week the Weekly 50% level drops and this be the new trend guide for the next 5-days of trading, and Monday should clearly give traders an idea about the direction.

There are 3 patterns that can play out.....

1. Weekly 50% level becomes another resistance zone sending US markets down once again.

2. Monday moves up and closes higher, resulting in a bottom to top close:- higher Friday close.

3. the next 5-days consolidates either side of the Weekly 50% level and continues to do so until the end of the month and the 3rd Quarter begins....

This will define where the next Monthly 50% level and the next trend begins in the
3rd Quarter







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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 19th June 2009 recap

    "Yesterday I had the view that price was moving down into 3843 because of the Wednesday breakout, but today I have an each way bet on the direction.

    Normally it is extremely hard to be trading longs on a higher spiral point, as there is less of an edge that price will continue upwards, instead it normally favours a move down...."

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    The each way bet on the direction of the SPI completed down, and a lower Friday close.

    After yesterday's extension and support @ 3843, I was favouring a move back towards the 5-day 50% level in early trading @ 3933, but once price dropped back below 3890 (spiral filter & intra-day pattern)....

    The bias was to complete the move back down towards the Spiral low @ 3863.



    Posted by

    S&P 500 Daily 18th June 2009 recap

    "US markets trading around Monthly balance points without a higher daily close this week.

    With Wednesday not selling down but trading around Monthly support, it looks like price will move back towards the 5-day 50% level.

    5-day 50% level is random resistance, which could stall price on Thursday"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets trading around monthly mid-points, but not rising much further than the 5-day 50% levels on Thursday.




    Posted by

    SPI Daily 18th June 2009 recap

    "Yesterday broke the 5-day lows @ 3921 resulting in a breakout.

    Normally a breakout of the 5-day range will extend down into the next 5-day range in Thursday @ 3843.

    short trade below 3879"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    SPI continued the move down from Wednesday's break and down into 3843.

    Along with the Monthly midpoint (red), can see a swing back towards the 5-day 50% level and Weekly 50% level @ 3933-53 by Friday

    That will depend on US markets on Thursday on further weakness or swing back into a higher open tomorrow.






    Posted by

    S&P 500 daily 17th June 2009 recap

    US markets continue down confirmed with the Weekly 50% level, as part of a move towards the Monthly 50% levels.

    Ideal pattern on Wednesday would be to continue down towards Wednesday's lows.

    5-day 50% levels resistance.

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets continue down on Wednesday but remained trading around Tuesday's lows.

    With Price trading around Tuesday's lows and not breaking the previous day, the ideal pattern would have been early buying back up into the 5-day 50% on Wednesday level and then short-trade the move down once again.

    Instead Wednesday remained choppy either side of the yellow filter.


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 17th June 2009 recap

    "SPI trading around 3921: random support

    Weekly 50% level resistance @ 3953

    Below 3921 is a breakout, which should continue down another 42 points.

    Whilst below the Weekly 50% level there is a view that the SPI is rotating back down towards the 3rd Quarter 50% levels"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI continues down following the 5-day pattern into Wednesday's lows moving into a 44 point rotating pattern.

    Wednesday breakout of the 5-day lows @ 3921 confirms further weakness down after reaching the June highs @ 4088 and then breaking the Weekly 50% level @ 3953.




    Posted by

    S&P 500 Daily 16 June 2009 recap

    "First time in 3 months that there is a break of the 5-day lows and Weekly 50%.

    The weekly 50% was used as support and now it's used as resistance

    Break of the Monday's lows should continue down into Tuesday's lows....

    Monday's lows and 5-day 50% level resistance"


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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Monday was the first time in 3-months that there was a matching close below the weekly 50% level and a breakout of the 5-day lows.

    It was a simple process of shorting the Monday breakout level with the expectation price would continue down into Tuesday's lows.


    Posted by

    SPI Daily 16 June 2009 recap



    SPI week 5-day pattern

    Trading between the Weekly 50% and the 5-day 50% on Tuesday



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    • Posted by

    S&P 500 Daily 15 June 2009 recap

    "With September futures running at a discount to the current SPOT contracts, this often suggests lower prices.

    The Weekly 50% level has been used as trend guide and support since March lows, and should be used as support this week.

    It is obvious that a breakout of the 5-day lows will signal a change of trend and reversal down towards the July 50% levels"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    There was nothing to suggest that US markets would break support, but the discount on September futures gave a few clues, along with price trading below support.

    First time since March has price broken out of the 5-day lows and close below the Weekly 50% level.

    With the break of the 5-day lows and now trading below the Weekly 50% level, there is an expectation that prices will try and drift down towards the Monthly 50% levels and 3rd Quarter 50% levels



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 15th June 2009 recap

    "JUNE high resistance with the expectation that prices are pulling back into the Weekly 50% level.

    Monday:- Resistance 4074-76 with the expectation of a pullback into the 5-day 50% level..."

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI didn't open high enough or hit resistance during Monday @ 4070, but there was an intra-day spiral top @ 4056 to trade the move down into Monday's 50% level @ 4018.

    Currently there is an expectation of a pullback towards the Weekly 50% level this week @ 3953




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