Index Futures, Forex Reports 14th FEB 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/

Note: Weekly BHP and Banking Reports Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/






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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 13th February 09 recap

    "Limit risk of shorting above the 5-day 50% levels.

    Support shown as the Yellow channels.

    Below Yellow support and it's a random pattern....

    Price could move down into yesterday's blue channel support @ 815 and then remain
    in a consolidating trading day on Friday"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets drifted lower on Friday, pushed down by the 5-day 50% level.

    There were no probability patterns for the market to rise upwards on Friday, unlike last week with the Weekly Hook pattern over the Weekly 50% level.

    Weekly report out later.


    Posted by

    SPI Daily 13th February 2009 recap

    "SPI is still coming down from yesterday's R87 spiral top and 5-day high, therefore we should be concentrating on short-trading today.

    Depends on where the SPI opens but it would need to open or move towards 3498 to confirm the R44 Spiral top.

    If the Market opens lower, then we have an Open Trading set-up, and yesterday's level @ 3467 should be the trend guide.

    Above the spiral top and less likely there will be a reversal down on Friday:- 44 points"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened lower and pushed down into 3467.

    Around this level I was looking for a move back towards 3498, as part of the shorting set-up.

    Trade longs up and exit and switch into shorts.

    Sellers appeared around the spiral top with the expectation price would continue back down into the 5-day 50% level:- 44 points.

    The Reversal down moved 30 points, but didn't complete the entire 44 point range.

    Once price reversed back up above the spiral point @ 3498, the market was probably going to continue higher into the close, resulting in a move back towards yesterday's highs.

    Weekly Report out tomorrow.

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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 12th February 09 recap

    I'm bearish on US markets because price is trading below all timeframe 50% levels...

    But it doesn't mean there can't be an UP day in a down trending market.

    trade on the side of Yellow support.

    If there is a push down on the S&P into blue support, then price will need to bounce back above the Yellow support level to confirm a higher daily close.

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P started the day trading below 827, which was the first sign of the trend continuing down.

    The 5-day pattern support levels didn't hold until there was a spike down into the Weekly lows @ 807.

    But as pointed out, price needed to rise back above 827 to get a move back towards the 5-day 50% level late in the trading day:- higher daily close.

    Choppy trading day around the lows and most of the UP move occured late in the trading day.


    Posted by

    SPI Daily 12th February 2009 recap

    "Price needs to complete yesterday's range into 3441.

    Above the 5-day 50% level and Weekly 50% level 3429-35 the bias is to continue towards 3467.

    Above 3467 and the bias is to complete the move up into the 5-day highs @ 3517.

    Around the 5-day highs and 3417 I'm expecting a 44 point reversal"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened lower but there was the expectation that price had to rise upwards to complete yesterday's move into 3441.

    Once that occured, this resulted in a HOOK pattern above the Weekly and 5-day 50% levels, which pushed the SPI back up towards the 5-day highs.

    Once around the 5-day highs sellers hit the market.

    If the SPI ends up consolidating around these levels for the next few weeks or months then I'd be happy to continue to trade the rotations UP and Down within the 5-day patterns.

    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 11th February 09 recap

    "Text book pattern for US markets would be an early rise up into resistance and then a sell down into support levels.

    if there is going to be a higher daily close, then markets should bounce off support (Yellow) and then swing back up towards the resistance levels once again.

    Wednesday could also end up a small trading range between support and resistance. levels"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Wednesday's trading went to script bouncing off support....

    Except I would have liked to have seen a push upwards in early trading so that price had reached the resistance levels precisely and then trade down into the support levels.



    Posted by

    SPI Daily 11th February 2009 recap

    "SPI opening around the 5-day lows, and unless the SPI opens below 3338 we should be focusing on trading longs.

    Ideal long patterns would be to see a down move on open into 3338 and rise upwards.

    If price is trading above 3364 then there is a view that the market is completing 44 points up and into 3410

    Which can also be part of a rise back into the 5-day 50% level which also matches the Weekly 50% level @ 3429"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened lower and moved back to the timeframe 50% levels @ 3429.

    My ideal set-up was to trade longs around 3338, but once price was above 3364 the price action followed a move up into 3410, and then continued back towards 3429.

    The trend guide for the rest of this week is going to be defined by the weekly 50% level @ 3429 long with the price action in the US markets.


    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 10th February 09 recap

    "As pointed out in the Weekly Report and yesterday's report, I'm not convinced that global markets are going higher....

    And now Tuesday's close is back below important 'trend' levels.

    Monday's view was for higher prices.

    Any reversal trend in the S&P won't be confirmed until price is trading below the 5-day filter blue channels.

    The first stage of weaker prices is trading below the Yellow support levels.

    Below the Yellow levels there is an expectation that there is a 2-day reversal occuring"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    AS per report, I wasn't convinced Markets were going higher but I needed to see some confirmation that prices were going lower....

    And that was a break of the 5-day filter.

    Once below that price followed the market path back down into Tuesday's lows.


    Posted by

    SPI Daily 10th February 2009 recap

    "Today is part of the movement rising up from the 5-day 50% level.

    Therefore the expectation is:- the SPI is trying to move UP towards 3544

    Support 3478

    based on the current price action I'm bullish for today, but it's high risk to be trading longs below support.

    If trading below the 5-day 50% level traders should adjust to the price action:- down into 3423–29 and the Weekly 50% level"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    I started the day as being bullish because of yesterday's support around the 5-day 50% level @ 3469

    There was early support around today's support @ 3478 but no follow through, and once price began to trade below the 5-day 50% level, then the only way was down into the Weekly 50% level, which was matched with the primary range of 87 points:- 3423-29

    There was support around these lows today, but there was no follow through because of price trading below the 5-day 50% level which capped the market from rising.

    As pointed out previously I'm not yet convinced the market is going higher.



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 9th February 09 recap

    "US markets closed higher on Friday along with the S&P closing above the Monthly 50% level: at this stage I favour an UP move on Monday.

    Because of the breakout of Friday's highs, I would favour a higher move from yellow support zones towards Monday's highs"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P moved down into Monday's support, which aligned with February's 50% level and continued up towards Monday's highs.

    Based on the current price action expectation this should continue up on Tuesday towards the Weekly highs.

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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 9th February 2009 recap

    "Higher Weekly open, Higher Daily open and higher Spiral points don't favour higher prices in early trading on Monday.

    I would at least need to see a 44 point down move and bounce off the 5-day 50% level before any potential higher move.

    Therefore any short trading should be focusing on the R44 completion and exit"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened higher and sold down from the Weekly level completing the 44-point range and moving into a consolidation pattern.

    And based on the morning report that's all I was looking for Today.

    Any higher moves this week I feel will be on the back of US markets rising upwards on Monday.



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