Australian and US Index Markets: - DOW and S&P
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Banking Stocks Weekly Report 5th April 2008
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BHP Trading Report 5th April 2008
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SPI higher open and move down into the 44 point lows.
Expectation that price would swing up from the lows and move back into the 5-day highs @ 5681 again.
After that it was a random outcome.
We saw some selling pressure early, but once above 5681 there was buying support back into the channel highs @ 5709 before pushing the market back down into the close.....
Full Weekly Report Tomorrow, along with the STOCK report
DOW stalled at the Weekly highs, whilst the S&P has broken out above them.
There can be a very similar trading pattern today, as what has occur in the Australian Market:- 1 day stalling day (yesterday) and next day rally, as it moves with the Weekly Trend higher into Friday....
SPI Weekly and Daily charts (11:40)
Trending Weekly timeframe UP into Friday, and this was confirmed with today's price action above 5585.
Even though it's trading around the April 50% level @ 5615, Today's price action looks to be following the 5-day range patterns higher....
SPI 44 and 22 point ranges
It's the same patterns we have see in the down-trends over the past few months....
5-day breakout, followed by 1 day rotation, and then the trend continues with the 5-day range pattern once back inside the 5-day channel the next day.
Took the short @ 5611 stopped 5618 -7
Took the next short @ 5627 covered all @ 5615 +12That's it for me today, I won't trade again. If I keep on trying to short today i'll end up taking losses.
Today has a random length on the UP side, but as pointed out yesterday, the Weekly chart can continue much higher because it's still trading within the March timeframe
Next trade tomorrow.
Next SPI Report 15:30
22 point rejection pattern under 5585
Entry S 5584 (stopped 5592 -7 )
Back to square 1 today....
Extremely choppy for my liking today, as it looks like it wants to go higher today.
Bounce off 5572 and move back above 5585...
I don't want to trade longs today, so i'm focusing on 'shorts'....but it looks extremely choppy that it will end up costing me, if I try and short trade above 5585.
And down side looks supported....
I re-entered on the SPI after it continued up into an R22 top...
Hopefully SPI can come down into an R44 low.
Once again 5585 is the 'RISK' level today, below and it has a random length.
My focus is to exit the trade around the 44 point ranges, but it can continue down further today...
Exit 5575 + 21
Partial exit 5579 + 17
Looking to exit @ 5559 (stops breakeven from entry)
If exit at target no more trading today
SPI pushed up into the R44 high and 5585 and found some sellers, but it's quickly moved upwards , and trading above 5585.
I would like to think there will be support rotation down.... but
Entry 5585 stopped 5592 -7
Entry 5588 stopped 5595 -7
And i'll keep trying until there is some rotatio down:- I Have resistance around 5597
Sell zone 5585
It's Pretty black and White today:- Sell zone and Higher Spiral point looking for a down move into 44 points again.
Again use the levels above, and any rotation down has a random length: 5521 and 5-day 50% level 5508, but personally I'm interested in only the first 44 point range today and taking the day off.
It's obvious that above 5585 and the Spiral point 'shorting' is open to Risk.
At least with a 'down' day today it will complete some 'gap' closures if it can close the range around 5521, before heading higher into Friday (higher Weekly close), but we will come to that tomorrow.
With both markets consolidating around the Top of the Weekly ranges.
I would have liked a litte more rotation down on Wednesday into the 5-day 50% level, but the Support levels on Thursday will provide the direction on any further UP moves, or a push down into the 5-day 50% levels.
Full Report later....
First time in 2008 that prices in the E-mini have close above the Weekly range highs, whilst the DOW has stalled at the highs once again.
It is also the first time in 2008 that prices are moving above the Monthly 50% levels, which in turn could see higher Price by Friday, (bottom to top Weekly timeframe)
US intra-day 5-day charts
Prices started the move up from Support and continued breaking the 5-day highs.
A 5-day high breakout and expectation prices will move up into the 5-day range high the next day.
There is also an expectation that prices will come down and re-test the 5-day break and 5-day 50% level before heading higher into Friday, if US markets are heading higher.
That would be the ideal set-up on Wednesday, a move down and re-test the 5-day breakout and then continue higher on Thursday.
SPI Drifting lower Today, finding support around the double R44 low, (22 point UP rejection) and has been pushed down again...
We will have to see where SPI opens tomorrow, but 5585 is a major resistance level this week...
I would like to see those 5-day highs close the gap (5489-5521) before any higher moves can take place.
Next Report tomorrow
SPI trading as per market pattern reversal:- higher Daily open and fade into an R44 low.
Support around 5559-72 and swing up into 5585 and failure.
Break of Support and price looks to be heading down into 5521, and could go as far as 5489.
Next SPI Report 15:30
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I might end up kicking myself if prices head down further today.
But I'll end up kicking myself harder if prices ended up swinging back up into my entry level taking me out.
no more trades today:-
Judge the SPI using the above levels:-
As a 44 point rotation down into 5559-72 and bounce is the 3rd 'play' in this morning's Report.
SPI higher open near the April 50% level @ 5615
Expected fade on open...
entry Short 5603 Partial exit 5588 +15
Stops breakeven from entry....
SPI has moved down into the Weekly highs 5585, but has remained above them at this stage.
I would like SPI to at least get back below 5585, but it won't surprise me to see it push upwards either.
I will be shorting round these higher levels a couple of times on any trading 'set-up' I see until there is a 44 point completion down.
The only thingI need to keep in mind is price trading above 5585 and 5572
SPI will be opening around 5585 today and will be close to the April 50% level @ 5615
It will also be opening higher than the Weekly highs @ 5521, so If traders are expecting a major down move this Week from today's higher open, 5521 will probably end up playing a supporting role this week.
A Weekly breakout of the 3-week cycles (5464) and Friday can close much higher, as price is still trading within the 'March' Timeframe, and the March 50% level is far higher, so there can be a driving Weekly range upwards into Friday.
5585 is the Weekly 100% level and it's my Sell Zone for today...
The Above levels will be important, along with the 5-day ranges.
A breakout of the 5-day range, and the expectation is price will try and come back down, but often 'breakouts' can only move in 44 point range 'rotations' until the next day.
It's obvious that there will be a higher fade on open today, hopefully from 5585, but three things can play out.
1. higher open on a 5-day breakout and Price remains in a 44 point range 'rotation' day.
2. higher open and inside 5572 the expectation is that price can move back down into 5521
3. Early fade but price remains above 5572 and continues upwards towards the April 50% level, as part of a Weekly Trending Range drive upwards into Friday.
Personally I won't be trying to 'Short' trade the market above 5585....
Max Down day:- 5489 Range high
US markets coming into the close of the trading day, and price has ended up back into the Weekly highs once again.
This Time the S&P is breaking the Weekly highs, the first time in 2008.....
Full Report later...
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GBP intra-day day
Following Previous Report 12 hours ago, GBP has moved down into 1.9756 and revered back up into the Risk Levels and stalling....(read previous Report)
At this stage GBP looks to be consolidating on Tuesday, and Wedensday should hopefully provide an Reverse pattern upwards if Tuesday remains between Support and Risk.
What I would like to see for an UP move would be a break higher on Wednesday using new levels the Next trading day.
Next GBP report found in the Premium Trader on Wednesday.
First of April and market is heading upwards towards the Weekly highs once again.
At this stage, it's a strong move to be rising upwards from the April balance point and trading above the April 50% levels on the DOW...
Primary trend (Yearly) Bearish
Secondary Trend (quarterly) Bearish
Intermediate Trend (Monthly) Bearish
Shorter Trends (Weekly Bullish)
Yesterday came down into the Weekly 50% level and found buying support.
Today the Monthly balance point is important because this will also need to have support and push higher into the close, otherwise a break of the Weekly .618 and the markets are heading back down.
Note: because of the Weekly timeframe, i'm looking for a 5-day sideways pattern before the next 'thrust' away from the central 50% levels.
Markets are trading below the 5-day 50% level.
Again there is no major high probability pattern today other than trading on the side of the Risk-Support levels.
Daily direction is an each way bet, with the higher timeframe support levels important.
My ideal pattern for a higher move is: - having a 'down' day, with a Daily 'hook' back inside the Weekly 50% level to trade upwards the following day using the Weekly 50% level as support.
At this stage I can't see Tuesday being other than being another day like yesterday, as part of a 5-day consolidating pattern for short-term traders.
SPI played the 'Hook' R44 back above the 5-day 50% level and is heading upwards into another R44 high @ 5431.
Can the market reverse down from that Spiral top???
It can reverse some points, but whether it's going to complete a full 44 point reversal is hard to image today.
For the past 2 hours it's remained at my Sell-zone this morning 5419-22 but I haven't traded any shorts around these highs just 'yet' since my last trade.
MY earlier short was stopped out for -8 points, the only sad part was that I had a partial exit @ 10 points (5486) but price only went as far as 5487 before taking out my stops...
All of a sudden what looked like heading down towards the 5-day lows earlier today, now looks to be heading towards the 5-day highs.
I'll take 1 more short today, but I would like to see the Spiral top hit and then use a 'reversal' bar to enter the trade, than just using the 'point' as an entry.
I have a sneaky expectation today's hook pattern doesn't look like it's going to show much weakness this afternoon.
SPI has moved up into the R44 spiral Top and the 5-day 50% level...
Because of the view price is moving down towards the Weekly 50% level.
Re-entered Shorts average price 5396 Stops 5404..
The start of the new Quarter and Trading month, and Yesterday's trading has pushed the April 50% level down to 1.9885.
Whilst price is below this level, price pushing down into the Weekly .618 lows @ 1.9694
Above 1.9885 and it's moving back towards the Weekly 50% level.
At this stage Price is trading below every timeframe 50% level
Note:- the Weekly timeframe still remains trading in the previous Quarter and won't be confirmed until the end of this week.
It looks like GBP is pusing down into the 3-day lows again on Tuesday.
An UP move will obviously rise up from the April 50% levels, but intra-day trend is going to be defined by the RISK level on any higher moves, whilst the support levels are only factoring 43 pips moves.
So around 1.9756 expectation support will play out and rise 1-2 43 pips, but above the risk level will confirm that price is moving back up into the Weekly 50% level.
SPI daily heading down towards the April Balance points, along with the Weekly 50% level.
Today's R44 reversal changed the short-term trend below the 5-day 50% level (5395) the first time in 6 days.
Around the 5-day lows will be an important support zone on Tuesday, and again on Wednesday....
This will be based on a Lower Daily close (Tuesday), followed by a lower Daily open rising upwards from tomorrow.
Next SPI report 15:30
SPI has continued down into yesterday's lows, and hopefully it can rise upwards from these lows using the channels...
But with the price action today and the R44 reversal, price is all of a sudden below the 5-day low @ 5395, which suggests further weakness, and could end up down into the 5-day lows
At this stage price does favour a rotation back down further, and any longs around here is only viewed as a short term long trade, back up into 5395 and exit.
Entry 5378 Stopped 5372 -6
Note:- price could be heading down to the 5-day lows, which aligns with the Weekly 50% levels, as this is has been my view since last week.
Short entry 5432
Partial exit 5412 +20
Holding into R44 low to exit trade.
I mentioned this morning about trading longs from an R44 low, at this stage I'm not interested in trading the Longs, because of the potential of price come down into the Weekly 50% level.
take the money and run.... Exit @ 5398 + 34
Large Gap to the Weekly 50% level, which could rotate back down to
BHP 1st April 2008...
SPI Report 1st April 2008
Start of a new Month and Quarterly timeframe, and there are conflicting trends in the market.
The overall Primary and Secondary (Yearly/Quarterly) trends are down, along with the Monthly, whilst the Shorter trends are UP:- Above the Weekly and 5-day 50% levels.
With the start of the new timeframes as of the 1st of April, the expectation is that if it's going to follow the shorter trends then the market will move up towards 5521.
If it's going to follow the bigger trends, then price will move down into the April balance point and then continue down.
Keep in mind that all new trends begin a 'thrust' from the central points outwards, and we are currently trading near the central points, therefore I would like to see price come down and test the Weekly 50% level and April balance point to get a clear picture on the direction of the trend.
Note: The Weekly timeframe is still 'stuck' inside the last Quarterly timeframe, as it began in March, and won't match until the end of this week.
Therefore it won't surprise me to see this week continue in a 5-day sideways consolidating pattern before new any trend or thrust begins from next week.
US markets rise up from the Weekly 50% levels, and swing back towards the 5-day 50% levels to close out the trading Quarter...
Full Report tomorrow
GBP breaks intra-day support and moves down into the 3-day lows....
Intra-day trend remains down, and will remain down whilst price is trading below RISK.
Price needs to move back above Risk in the new day for any UP move to take....
DOW and E-mini Daily charts
US markets rotating down into Weekly support zones with 1 day remaining until the end of the trading Month and Quarter
There will be some support around those levels on Monday, but any Upside follow-through will probably occur from Tuesday and the start of the new Month.
Keep in mind that Price is trading below higher timeframe 50% levels, and a break below the Weekly .618 levels on the last day doesn’t go well for any upside moves in the early part of April.
DOW and E-mini intra-day charts
Breakout on Friday to the downside and expectation price is pushing down into the lower levels on Monday.
In any normal trading set-up, I would have looked for a push down into Support and then a counter-trend move upwards, with a continued higher move from the April 50% levels.
Because Sunday is part of a trading day, the lower levels have shifted upwards, therefore it's not providing a robust lower swing point and Support:- to BUY and then hold on a short-covering reversal.
Day traders simply use the Risk and Support levels on Monday….
Above and its moving UP:- Not expecting much upside but back into the 5-day 50% levels.
Below and it’s move down into support zones..
SPI has come down into an R44 low and has pushed back upwards.
Each way bet on the direction of the close, as an R44 low can go higher into the close.
Or it can rotate back down as it closes out the last trading day of the month.
Entry L 5385 exit 5395 +10 to be neutral.
I'm not going to trade again today, as I prefer to wait until today closes and then trade again from tomorrow.
I was only interested in trying to take around 10 points each trade today, and I've done that....
Going for a Jog...
GBP trading under the Quarterly 50% levels and this is the trend guide for the next 3-months.
Last trading day of the month and GBP is trading around the Monthly 50% levels, waiting for the market to 'thrust' out of the central points and move towards the extreme of the channels once again.
At this stage price is in the middle of Monthly and Weekly 50% levels, so it's going to be a better guide on the direction as of tomorrow.
Last Week GBP reversed back down into the 3-day high break and found support above it. A Robust set-up would be price rising upwards from the Monthly 50% levels once again....
Still trading above support and RISK..... @ 1.9907
I don't have a probability on direction for Monday's trading, because at this stage price on the last day of the month is trading below every timeframe 50% level, so it's hard to say that April will move higher until April actuallybegins.....Tuesday will provide a much clearer view on any trading set-up for April....
Last short trade today, and I won't trade again until the afternoon.
Trailing stop on previous trade stopped -2
re-entry 5422 partial exit 5412 and 5409 +13 Neutral positions
Might even take the day off.
Next SPI report 15:30