Index, Forex & Stocks 16th October 2010 Weekly

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

US Dollar INDEX, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/

OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update





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S&P (e-mini ) 15th October 2010 recap

Resistance remains around 1183 on the S&P & Friday's highs


S&P Weekly and Daily range

Friday remains in a tight trading range around upper resistance levels in October.

If the S&P is going to follow a reversal pattern next week, then the first sign will be a daily close below 1166



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SPI Daily 15th October 2010 recap

Trend guide 4765.

This week the market has moved away from the filter on open, but today we are trading above it. Because of this there is an expectation that price will be drawn towards it in early trading.(4675)


SPI Weekly and daily range.

Higher daily open and price moved down into 4675, stabilised by 11:20 and then proceeded to move up towards 4706 on Friday (resistance)...

Resulting in a 5-day pattern that has consolidated within the weekly ranges.



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AUD/USD 15th October 2010 recap

AUD monthly and daily range

AUD currently stalled around the October highs @ 9979, as it completes the break and extend pattern.

My view is that the AUD will try and make it's way down towards the November 50% levels during the 3rd or 4th Week of this month, and then make higher highs in the first Quarter of 2011 (break parity)

Thursday:- I would have preferred Thursday to have moved down further and be trading around

.9840 (#3) than where it is now.

Trend guide for the next 12 hours as shown in the right chart

@ .9945/54.

 

As mentioned two days ago… “at this stage I



would focus on 41 to 85 pip ranges”

What we can see in the bottom chart is a 85 pip reversal from the highs in the left chart on Thursday, but as the trend is reversing down we have.... (right chart)

41 pip spiral tops occurring providing traders with amply opportunities of getting back into the trend (if you were screen trading overnight)



The idea is to find ‘observed phenomena’ and use it to your advantage

once the parameters align:- sell higher opens using resistance & buy

lower opens using support, whilst optimizing the daily price action within the larger timeframe cycles.





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S&P (e-mini ) 14th October 2010 recap

Resistance:- 1183.25 to 1186

If there going to be reversal around these 4th Quarter highs, then it's going to be hitting resistance on Thursday and closing lower.

                                                            S&P Weekly and Daily.

Reversal down into lower daily 50% levels, but not from the upper resistance levels as I hoped for on Thursday.

And late buying from those daily 50% level levels doesn’t provided a high probability pattern of continuing lower on Friday




Posted by

SPI Daily 14th October 2010 recap

Trend guide 4666

Resistance @4696

If market closes above 4696 by 11:20, it is likely to continue to push higher:- 4715 to 4726"


                                                         SPI Weekly and Daily range

Tuesday was rejected down from 4708

Wednesday was pushed down from 4671 (42 points)

And today the market rallied up from 4665 towards the first line of least resistance @ 4696.

Once price started to trade above 4696 after 11:20am, the trend bias was to continue upwards (high 4715)

Around 4713-4715 the market stalled (Weekly level)

If US markets continue higher on Thursday, then the SPI will be trading around the Weekly highs by tomorrow.

However, the S&P 500 is now moving up into resistance levels in the 4th Quarter, as per Weekly report.
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S&P (e-mini ) 13th October 2010 recap

Trend guide 1164.50

Breakout of Tuesday’s highs should continue up into Wednesday’s highs (1172-1174)

Two possible patterns....

Reverse back down into the daily 50% level (resistance) or continue to trend up towards 1183, as per weekly report



S&P Weekly and Daily range..

Early rise upwards from Tuesday’s breakout @ 1164.50, has seen another breakout on Wednesday, as the market goes looking for the 4th Quarter highs @ 1183.

This week has seen the trend continue higher after testing the Weekly support @ 1154, and will be completing the 4th quarter pattern @ 1183 (read US market Index report)




Posted by

SPI Daily 13th October 2010 recap

"today's higher open is going to align with a spiral top pattern @ 4667-4671



This can provide a continuation of the trend down into the daily lows (42 points)


SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern,

In yesterday’s recap I mentioned….(below)

"the 2nd day reversal pattern began to take hold without providing an ideal intra-day set-up to get back into the trend. Ideal set-up would have been a reversal into 4673 (support becomes resistance) and then a 2nd ‘short trade' down into the close"

We didn’t get that yesterday, but we got it today.

Downside target was 4610, but it began to consolidated once 42 points completed



Posted by

S&P (e-mini ) 12th October 2010 recap

Support 1154 :- Above and the trend guide is towards 1171-1174

Below and it’s part of a 2nd day reversal towards 1138.


S&P Weekly and Daily range.

A 2nd day reversal below 1154 would normally occur during globex hours before the cash market opens, which would normally have seen the cash market open around the Daily lows on Tuesday @ 1145

The closer it came into the opening of the market and above 1154, the more probable the market was follwing a lower daily open and continuation of the trend from 1154 towards the weekly and Monthly highs…

With Tuesday’s daily highs stalling the trend.





Posted by

SPI Daily 12th October 2010 recap

Trend guide 4708

Looking at the daily range and the position of the spiral filter, I favour the market to continue down towards the support levels @ 4673-76


SPI Weekly and daily range.

Higher weekly open and 2nd day sell pattern from the Weekly level @ 4713 has resulted in the break of the 5-day lows & the Weekly 50% level @ 4650

Initial expectation was a move down into support @ 4673, but once that didn’t hold, the 2nd day reversal pattern began to take hold without providing an ideal intra-day set-up to get back into the trend.

Ideal set-up would have been 4643-50 providing a 21 point reversal into 4673 (support becomes resistance)  and then a 2nd ‘short trade' down into the close.




Posted by

S&P (e-mini ) 11th October 2010 recap

Completing the break and extend patterns from last month into this months highs @ 1165, which might act as resistance today.

no high probability trade set-up at these current levels on Monday



S&P Weekly and Daily range


S&P remained below 1165 but above last week’s highs @ 1157.50, and  within a tight trading range


Posted by

SPI Daily 11th October 2010 recap

"Trend guide 4709

Resistance 4724-30

Support 4663"
SPI Weekly and Daily range

Early support @ 4709 pushed the market up into resistance levels providing another 21 point reversal.

Price did dip below 4709, but it failed to continue down into support levels.

instead remaining choppy either side of 4709.




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