Index Futures, Forex Reports 28th FEB 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP and Banking Reports Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/






Posted by

DOW Daily 27th February 2009 recap

"Last day of the month and expectation US markets are going lower.

break of the Yellow support is to follow the move down into next day's Yellow support, as part of a 2-day reversal pattern

Limit trading longs below Yellow support, as Friday can close lower preempting the shift in the Monthly support"

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DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern


US markets following the larger trends with the expectation that markets are going down into March lows.

There was some early support on Friday @ 7148, but the break and reversal down followed the expectation that there is further weakness next week

Break of support on Friday moved down into Friday's lows, and then remained between the Lows (green Channel), and the support levels, which became resistance levels.

Weekly Report out later


Posted by

SPI Daily 27th February 2009 recap


"Last trading day of the month and by the lack of upside in US markets this week, I would say that it's a forgone conclusion that Markets will continue down in March.

We have an Open Trading Pattern where the last R44 range needs to complete before Friday begins, and that is going to be defined by 3303.

If it's above then the expectation is that price is once again rising upwards 44 points, as was the case yesterday"

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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI opened above 3303 on Friday and moved up into the 5-day 50% level and 44 points.

The rest of today remained choppy around the highs, with a late sell off into the close.

Next week's trend guide once again will be the Weekly 50% level and the Weekly lows.

Any greater move downwards will have to be confirmed with a breakout of the 5-day lows, which hasn't happened for awhile, based on US markets heading lower.



Posted by

DOW Futures 26th February 2009 recap

"In the short term there is still a bias to rise up towards the Weekly 50% level and match up with the March 50% level by next week.

If US markets are going to complete the move into the Weekly 50% level , then price should be pushing upwards from the Yellow Support zones on Thursday and continue higher.

Trade on the side of Yellow support"


DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern


Thursday started with Price rising upwards from support, but then drifting back down into the close.

The lows are supporting the market, and the normal pattern is for price to rise upwards into the Weekly 50% level before the trend continues down, as per my overall view...

"February lows & Weekly lows currently supporting the market,but the support shifts lower in 2-day's time, and US markets most likely will follow the move down towards March lows.

This follows my view of heading down into the Yearly lows for 2009"

1 day left until the end of the month, and where it closes will set-up the downside target for the Month of March.

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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 26th February 2009

    "Resistance levels around the 5-day 50% level @ 3350-54.

    Expected resistance which could result in a consolidating trading day:- R44 ranges.

    Support 3301-3003 & Weekly lows"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Consolidating trading day on the SPI, rotating in precise 44 point ranges within the 5-day range...

    Now things begin to get interesting over the next 2 days....


    SPI Monthly and DOW Futures Monthly

    Two days to go until the end of the month, and the SPI still hasn’t
    reached the monthly lows in February, whilst the DOW has and is
    currently being supported.

    With the shift in timeframes next month, US markets will more than
    likely follow the move down into the March lows, which match the
    first Quarter lows.

    If US markets continue down this will more than likely result in a
    breakout pattern in the Australian market of the monthly lows and
    continue down towards the Yearly lows @ 2770 and as far as
    2606.

    These patterns fit in with my overall view of continuing down
    towards the Yearly lows in 2009.





    Trend guide are the Monthly 50% levels, and whilst price is below them the view is to follow the trend down.



    In the case of the SPI and the Australian Market:- Monthly lows needs to break.

    If the SPI had reach February’s lows in the first two weeks there could
    can been a probable move towards the March highs before continuing
    down, but all roads are pointing SOUTH and completing the Yearly lows in
    the next couple of months.

    Weekly Report out on Saturday


    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 25th February 09 recap

    "US markets have reversed up from their Weekly lows, and there is now an expectation that price is heading towards the Weekly 50% level.

    This can also be part of a last week counter-trend move towards next month's 50% level in March.

    Trend Guide 5-day 50% level on Wednesday..

    Below the 5-day 50% level and expectation is price can come down into Support and then bounce higher"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets opened higher and moved down into the Support zones and reversed upwards.

    I was looking for Wednesday to remain above the 5-day 50% level and continue towards the Weekly 50% level by Thursday.

    In late trading Futures were sold down.

    It looks like the US markets will consolidate for the next 2 days into the end of the month and will probably continue down in March, as the Monthly support levels in February shift lower.





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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 25th February 2009 recap


    "Below the Weekly 50% level @ 3411 and this is still viewed as resistance.

    Higher Daily open and spiral points will normally move down and back into the 5-day 50% level :- ideally a 44 point low

    Any up trend normally begins from the 5-day 50% level and continues higher from a 44 point spiral low,

    Therefore my ideal pattern would be a higher open and for the SPI to push upwards 22 points and into a higher Spiral point and then trade down into an R44 low:

    A 44 point close below (HOOK) the 5-day 50% level and expectation price will continue down into 3301.

    3301 and expectation price will swing upwards 21-42 points"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened higher and moved up 21 points before reversing down into the 5-day 50% level @ 3360, missing my entry by 1 tick to short the open.

    3360 was viewed as support for a move up towards 3411, but it had more chance if price was rising upwards from a R44 low.

    Instead the R44 closed below support and this changed the view of any higher moves, as the expectation was to continue down into 3301.

    Once price had reached 3301 there was an expectation of support and a 21-42 point reversal upwards.

    Market reversed upwards off the lows but didn't have the entire follow through during the day session.



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    • Posted by

    DOW Daily 24th February 2009 recap

    DOW Monthly and Weekly

    The DOW pushed down into Monthly lows and hitting the Weekly lows and reversing upwards on Tuesday.

    At this stage SET-UPS A or B are taking place( Weekly Report), and the expectation is that the DOW should continue UP towards the Weekly 50% level this week


    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern


    "Because of the Weekly lows price can rotate back towards Monday's breakout and/or the 5-day 50% level, and then can reverse down into Tuesday's lows.

    My ideal pattern would be to sell down into the support zones and then look for a late reversal off the lows...

    If this can occur then on Wedesday there is a potential UP swing back towards the 5-day highs and Weekly 50% level later this week"     Premium Report

    On Monday price moved down into the Weekly lows with a 5-day breakout.

    Normal Text Book pattern on a 5-day breakout is to continue down or remain below the 5-day 50% level.

    Even though the Monthly lows along with the Weekly lows are support zones with the potential to reverse off these levels and back upwards, I was expecting a stalling day before Wednesday continued higher.

    It won't matter, because Wednesday's 50% level will be the trend guide for any higher prices this week, unless price continues higher overnight before the day session opens.
    Posted by

    SPI Daily 24th February 2009 recap

    "SPI Trading around the Weekly lows, along with the spiral completion @ 3277.

    Therefore like yesterday's low @ 3291, and last week's Weekly low @ 3351, today's robust support zone is 3277.

    Around 3277 the expectation is that price will try and move back towards 3333, or at least 44 points upwards"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI pushed lower on open completing the move down into 3277:- Support and BUY.

    This was the ideal BUY zone for a move up towards the first 44 point range @ 3320.

    The rest of the day consolidated around the middle of the daily range after the initial 44 point rally, with a late after market push up towards 3333.

    Once 3333 was hit sellers appeared hitting the SPI back down.

    At this stage, the SPI refuses to follow the same patterns as US markets down towards the February lows, instead remaining range bound between the 5-day lows and Weekly 50% levels.



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 23rd February 09 recap

    "Last week's price action occured from a Weekly low breakout, I have to view the markets range bound between the Weekly 50% level and the Weekly lows.

    Trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level:- Below the 5-day 50% level and moving down into Support.

    Two patterns based on Yellow support

    SET-UP A:- bounces back above the 5-day 50% level and continues higher.

    SET-UP B:- fails and moves down into the 5-day blue filter:- Monday's lows"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern


    US markets moved down into Yellow support and failed to hold sending US markets tumbling down into Monday's lows, and as far as the Weekly lows in both the S&P and DOW.

    With the Breakout of Monday's lows, the S&P should reach its February lows of 723 by Tuesday.

    Posted by

    SPI Daily 23rd February 2009 recap

    "SET-UP:- pushes down early on Monday and completes the R44 low @ 3334.

    If that occurs then the rest of the day should be defined by that level:- R44 spiral low @ 3334

    If it begins to rise upwards then we should have the expectation that the SPI is trying to complete a 87 point move upwards.

    Below and it’s following the 5-day pattern lower

    Expectation remains that the SPI is moving down towards the Monthly lows"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern 16:10

    SPI opened below 3365 and whilst price was below this level the expectation was that price was moving lower towards 3334.

    Once that occured there was a random pattern:- either it swings upwards off the low @ 3334 or continues down into the 5-day and Weekly lows:- 3291 87 points.

    The rest of Monday ended up consolidating, Rising up 44 points and then stalling.

    If the SPI is going to rise 87 points off these lows and back into the 5-day 50% level, then it has to be on the back on US markets having an UP day on Monday.

    Otherwise the view still remains down into the Monthly lows, and if it's not February's lows, it will match with March lows.



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