US Weekly Report 11th November 2007

DOW and ES-minis

Last weekly report my expectation was two fold, the market would consolidate above higher timeframe 50% levels. These were and are very valid support zones.

My second expectation was that if these levels broke this week the market would be on its way down into lower monthly-extended zones. This is a repeating pattern and a probability pattern.

Trading is simply about buying and selling support/resistance along with understanding that price has a certain trend it follows.

Sometimes during the trading week we all get the perfect trade because everything aligns with market dynamics, as was the case in the US selling the 5-day 50% levels and trading them down.

However, during the trading week not everyday is perfect and certain things need to happen before the trade eventuates and/or the Risk diminishes….

Weekly charts are showing the break, and this has continued down or continuing down into previous consolidating support.

For many these October levels might seem support, especially if there is a 2-3 day counter-trend move in the markets next week, but probability patterns often suggest that the price normally follows the model, so the expectation is that November lows are the target before any major rally or support is verified…

US report continues below....

US markets continued down into the end of the trading week as they follow the market dynamics into November lows. This was confirmed with the break of the Weekly lows this week, and it was confirmed with Sell-offs from the 5 day 50% levels.

I do expect a 2-3 day rally upwards next week, but firstly I would like to see a test of the November and Weekly lows next week before a major counter-trend move upwards towards the weekly 50% levels.

The trend will probably continue down on Monday or hopefully it will so that these lows verify support, before there is a 2-3 day up move back towards the recent break.

The Weekly 50% level will define the trend, and we notice that both the break of this weeks lows matches next weeks 50% level.

I can’t see any major up move in November unless it moves down into November lows, as shown in the Weekly charts above...

Therefore the Weekly 50% levels next week are resistance zones for a continuation move down after any 2-3 day counter-trend UP move.

Premium daily report will follow on Monday.........

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Premium Daily report shows different levels in the market with daily set-ups that are sent to subscribers via email before being posted here. You can receive Daily Premium reports by buying the book or donating to this website.....Thank you

US Report 9th November part 3

US markets continue down into the end of the trading week as they follow the market dynamics into November lows...

Intra-day:- price has followed the trend down towards the 5-day lows

I do expect a 2-3 day rally upwards next week, but firstly I would like to see a test of the November and Weekly lows next week before a major counter-trend move upwards back towards the weekly 50% levels.....

Full Weekly US report later.......

EUR/USD 9th November

Read the GBP report below and the same expectation if trailing support breaks on Monday.

EUR has been supported, and any further UP move next week if support holds is towards the Weekly and November highs @ 1.4820-32

GBP/USD November 9 part 2

GBP has broken trailing support last night after hitting major resistance around the November highs.

The past 2 days price was trading above the pivot highs when they broke back above them on Wednesday and continued higher into Friday, where the pivot high became a resistance zone. The selling was confirmed with the break of 2.1029

The rotation that I was looking for to happen on Monday occured on Friday, and the natural rotation for price is to rotate back into the 3-day lows @ 2.0806.

This rotation occurs all the time. However what is important about this time is where it's actually occuring. Around upper monthly highs often become major resistance zones for the rest of November until the new dynamics begin at the start of the next month:- December

The 3-day cycles need to be broken, however, it's the Weekly 50% level shown that defines the strength of any Weekly trend.

Below 2.0777 and the pound will follow similar paths as US and other global Indexes back down into major support.

But at this stage, this price action is a normal rotation back into the 3-day lows, and will probably consolidate above the 3-week 50% level at this stage.....

US report 9th November 2007 part 2

US markets following the higher timeframe weakness down into the end of the trading week.

Price didn't rise high enough on Friday to pick another short from the 5-day 50% levels

Weakness confirmed with the break of the intra-day support and heading down into 5-day extremes.

Whilst both markets are trading below both pivots (yellow) Friday's intra-day trend is down..

GBP/USD 9th November 2007

Forex GBP/USD...

Yesterday looking for a re-test of trailing support before the market 'strenght' continued higher, pushing prices quickly below before resuming the trend higher.

Market has continued higher and trend remains strong as it hits resistance, but there are no major set-ups until the trailing support breaks.

This normally occurs at the start of the new week, as price rotate back down looking for 2-day reversals/stalling price action

Full report next week.....

US report 9th November 2007

US markets are trending down, and whilst price is trading below the Weekly lows then the expectation is for both markets to consolidate below these levels until the end of the trading week.

US report continues below…..

Yesterday provided the perfect top and continued rotation down from the 5-day 50% levels.

Traders should use these same levels for Risk on Friday…..

Don’t short above them, and expectation is that Friday will move down, but probably consolidate and trade in a choppy pattern due to price trading back inside the pivots (yellow), whereas yesterday they were trading below them..

No major set-up for Friday's trading....

SPI 9th November 2007 part 4

11:45am

2 contract Day-traders 'gap' filled @ 6573.

Those traders can take the Day off...

3 contract traders can hold last into close...... or lower pivots @ 6482-66

SPI 9th November 2007 part 3

10:55am

This is the potential move on the SPI today if it follows market dynamics....

Not only will the gaps from yesterday fill, but a huge move down into pivot lows and 5-day extremes is a possibility....

It’s never a forgone conclusion how far any day will move or what the range of the day will be. Each day is random, but it would be nice….

Once out of a partial exit around 44 point lows let the market run it's course for the day...

SPI 9th November 2007 part 2

SPI: 10.20am

Premium report:- "Above 6601 and shorting today is open to risk, this is also the 5-day 50% level.

So there can be very similar price action in the SPI today, as was the case with US markets:- rotating down from 5-day 50% levels and heading down into the close.

If the 'sell' eventuates, then focus on 44 points and into the lower pivots....”premium report” 8:40am

Premium report: 10.05am

The rise up in early trading has completed a 44 point move in the market

Bullish sentiment from BHP and news of RIO take over.....

On many occasions when the R44 rallies on open, there are many instances of a rotation back down into R44 lows....

This is because the yellow pivot can't be completed until the first 44 point is finished and often the market rotates back down and retests it.

If this R44 completes down in 6604 from the swing highs, it will still be above the Risk level of 6601.....

Anyone who is short, I would look to partial exit at 6605, but continue to hold, because if it breaks 6601, I have a feeling it's going down much further.......

Run breakeven stops from entry....

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6601 is a valid support zone, it is also an R44 low, so it can be on many occassions an ideal zone to be going long from.

However, Market dynamics are in 'sell cycles' and personally I would rather use 6601 as a partial exit zone. I acknowldge it is a valid support zone, but ideally I want to see the lower gaps on the downside close, and hopefully continue down into end of the trading day.....

SPI 9th November 2007

8:40am

Yesterday's push down from 6570 and into 44 points lows @ 6528 worked well, but the follow through much further down didn't eventuate, with the R87 lower spiral point providing support, and today the market will open filling the 'gap' @ 6612:- pattern probability view from yesterday.

Today's open and the market is opening with gap's either way, upside it's much higher, down side it's yesterday's highs and normal rotation into 6557 or 44 points down.

Today:- It's hard to go 'long' on a higher open, there are gaps on the downside and preferably the best trades occur filling lower gaps or trading longs from lower 44 point spiral points....

Above 6601 and shorting today is open to risk.....

Premium Dilernia report will follow later.....

Even though the 'position' system is going long today, there are no positions taken because of Market Dynamics and 'sell' cycles in the markets

US report 8th November 2007 part 4

US markets followed the price pattern down following the break of the higher timeframes and expectation of US market heading lower.

Day traders:- had the perfect set-up on Thursday, a rotation upwards into 5-day 50% levels, where any longs were exitted.

And then the expectation of a rotation back down into cycle lows and 5-day extremes.

DOW reached the 5-day low @ 13158; (exit zone the cycle lows)

ES reached the cycle lows @ 1460 (exit zone)

Full US report later.....

US report 8th November 2007 part 3

Aussie & Euro Traders that went long looking for the rotation back into the 5-day 50% levels, these are exit zones for longs on both DOW and ES....

Others can run breakeven stops from entry.

Traders looking to short around these 50% levels needs to use intra-day cycles to confirm weakness....

Above those 50% levels and shorting today is open to 'risk' on Thursday

Day Traders 'shorting' can use partial exits of 4.25 range for ES, and 51 points on DOW and run stops above 50% levels, because price is trading above intra-day cycles....

US report 8th November 2007 part 2

Continuation from previous report.....

Around Thursday's lows we want to see some early rotation upwards with both intra-day cycles as RISK levels...

The 5-day 50% levels have defined this week's trend, and on Thursday the 5-day 50% level has dropped down to 13414 for the DOW, and 1487.50 for ES.

The 5-day 50% level matches the Weekly breakout channel low:- 1487 should give traders a clear idea of the trend on Thursday

The expectation is that this weekly trend will continue down, and these 5-day 50% levels will define the trend on Thursday with the expectation that the move will continue down into the 5-day lows.

Lower Daily opens in falling markets makes it hard to short markets unless they rise upwards into resistance zones confirmed with breaking the intra-day cycle lows again.....

GBP/USD 8th November 2007 part 2

GBP/USD

Globex:- is coming into the 90 pip lows 2.0956, with partial exits and stops at 2.10 above pivot high.

Forex:- slightly different dynamics and prices, but similar price action coming into support…..

US report 8th November 2007

US Markets:-

Higher timeframe support zones broken with Wednesday’s trading.

The Weekend report suggested that because of Quarterly 'drops' in the forward Quarter US markets could come under further weakness if these 50% levels don’t hold this week

The expectation now is that US markets are heading down towards the Quarterly lows, and November lows in both markets.

US report continues below.....

Daily:- After 3-days of support what really confirmed the weakness was the failure for both markets to hold the weekly channel lows.

These often provide support and rotation back into the 5-day 50% level, but not on Wednesday. The breakdown of the weekly channel lows also confirms continued weakness this week.

3-day cycles are ‘sell’, and the short-term trend is defined by the Weekly 50% level. Until price is trading back above the forward weekly 50% level next week or any week, the expectation is that the markets are heading down….

US report continues below.....

Wednesday: Intra-day cycles broke early around the highs and remained below them all day, heading down to the pivot lows and beyond

Thursday:- intra-day cycles are Sell, and probably won’t be a BUY today, but trying to short much lower opens is open to risk. Very similar to the SPI today, ideally with some rotation upwards before any further weakness is confirmed for day-traders

Day traders on ES should use the intra-day cycle and previous pivot low @ 1480 as a RISK level whether trading shorts or longs intra-day.....

GBP/USD 8th November 2007

Push up into extended highs in November and the pound has stalled and drifting back down...

no major set-ups on Thursday, otherthan a 90 pip move back down into trailing support.....

Intra-day risk levels 2.10 and lower support.....

Follow previous GBP/USD threads by clicking previous posts......

SPI 8th November 2007 Part 3

12.00pm...

Technically today’s trading worked well, the bearish pattern is confirmed by the break of the 3-week lows @ 6573, with the expectation that the market is heading down into November 50% levels.

Intra-day, the lower open provided the perfect entry. Not only for longs and ‘gap’ closure, but for traders wanting to enter shorts, around the Spiral point highs @ 6570 and trading below 6577.

Day Traders: Partial exit around today’s lows or R44 points down from swing highs @ 6528, with the expectation that market is going to follow further weakness.

Hopefully, today doesn’t end up a ‘trading day’ that rotates inside a 44-point range all day, as it did yesterday but continues down…….

Any shorts stops placed above 6577... traders can partial exit 22 points down and just let the market run its course into the end of today.....

The reason for the 22 point exit @ 6550 is that statistically lower R87 spiral points favour support...

SPI 8th November 2007 Part 2

10:23am

"whenever the R87 has 'gaps' on open the expectation is that the gaps will try and close on the upside into 6612...." (premium report)

Lower open and R87 spiral point favours longs into the gaps.....

The rotation is into the lower pivot points.....

Anyone long the partial exits (6563-70) with the expectation that the R44 will complete the range @ 6570, and below 6577.....

A bearish market favours weakness around R44 highs, ''Spiral points'

There is still the expectation gaps will close on the Upside, so any one trading 'longs let the market run it's course with breakeven stops from entry or exit longs....

SPI 8th November 2007

9:00am

Short-term trend defined @ 6716 and 3-day 'sell' cycles have pushed the market back down into Mondays' lows and beyond, with the expectation that whilst price is below Monday's lows the larger cycle rotation is back to 6362 and November 50% levels.

With US markets likely to be heading down much further back towards November lows, at this stage 6362 and November 50% level is a 'first' rotation target.

Yesterday was frustrating for Day traders:- the expectation of the down side gap closure @6566 didn't eventuate in the day session, and position traders didn't have matching 'short' systems to trade shorts overnight.

SPI report continues below.....

Today:- open below pivot @ 6577 and expectation is that the market will head down, however on open the expectation is that any 'gaps' will try and close on the upside into 6612, as was the case yesterday with the gap closure on the down side.

Whichever way the market goes in early trading, the larger cycles are pointing down, simply trade on the side of Risk levels 6577. The market trend is weak....

Any weakness and expectation is to move down towards the lower pivots @ 6437....

US report 7th November part 3

Wednesday's trading in US markets wasn't a good sign, price broke intra-day support overnight and has remained below during the day session pushing lower back into higher timeframe support zones.

Both DOW and ES are still supported around the higher timeframe 50% levels, but for any buying or an up bias to play out on Thursday the intra-day cycles are going to be important.

At this stage US markets are still in a 5-day choppy pattern, but Thursday is an extremely important trading day on whether Markets continue to be supported waiting for the weekly timeframe to complete.....or follow the 'Quarterly Drops' into November lows.....

Weekly extended zones in both markets are extremely important for the rest of this week.

DOW 13358 ES 1487

Full US report later...

GBP/USD 7th November part 2

GBP took off since my last post, rallying towards the November highs @ 2.100, and around these highs would have been the ideal exit zone for a 'day-trade'

For any reversal back down the next day has to begin, and confirmed with the trailing support line 'break down'......

US 7th November part 2

US markets have broken intra-day support before market has opened, and price is rotating back down into Monday's lows once again.

If these higher timeframe 50% levels support the market, as they have done all week, then the expectation is the market heading back toward yesterday's highs once again, and another stalling/rotating trading day.....

Short-term trend is down, and intra-day cycles are 'Sell'......

US report 7th November

DOW & ES-minis

US markets currently supported around higher timeframes 50%.

Major support has been verified but at this stage the 'short-term' is weak. It’s trading below the 3-day lows and below the 3-week 50% levels.

Tuesday ended up a choppy and rotating day trading between both 'Dilernia pivots' before a late rise into the end of the day. ES hitting the 3-day highs and stalling.

US report continues below....

US report 7th November

The important part of this price action was the early rise upwards and then the rotation back down into the lows.

Because that price action changed the intra-day cycle around early in the day, tested the cycle lows intra-day and bounced....

At this stage the view is that this trailing (white) line will be the support line for the rest of this week in both markets as they rotate upwards with an UP bias this week..

I still view the market as choppy, with major support around the higher timeframes 50% levels, and more rotation on US day sessions.

Intra-day support as shown by the traling white line, but at this stage I don't see any major trend developing other than a weekly timeframe that consolidates for these 5 days between major support and weaker smaller timeframes:- below weekly 50% levels and 3-day 'sell' cycles.

It wouldn't even surprise me to see a re-test of Monday lows if intra-day support breaks.......

GBP/USD 7th November

This week I was looking for a rotation back into the 3-day lows @ 2.0670

The confirmation was the intra-day break and parital exit @ the 90 pip lows.

The trailing stop was placed and the GBP has continued upwards.

When looking at the higher timeframes, the market is hitting major levels. Hard to be buying around these highs, nevertheless the currency can go higher.

trailing support @ 2.080 intra-day Wednesday.

No set-ups for Wednesday's trading.

SPI 7th November 2007 part 3

10:47am...

SPI is hitting resistance levels around the upper pivot and Weekly 50% levels @ 6716....

The thing you notice is that the 'yellow' pivot line of 6709 isn't appearing in the chart below, it will only appear once the first 44 range has completed.

Ideally we would like for the market to move down into an R44 low and then the Gap, but there is the possibility that the R44 range could swing upwards into 6731, which puts the market above those levels and completes the 44 point range, and could end up heading higher on the "2nd day UP rotation" above the 3-day highs @ 6746.

A break and close above those 3-day highs confirms the change of the 3-day cycle from 'Sell' to "BUY'"

That is why it was important for any 'shorts' to be taken out around 22 points today from swing highs @ 6698 this morning and then let the market run it's course....

SPI 7th November 2007 part 2

SPI 10:14 am

Higher open on SPI due to %rate news, and it’s where traders would have exited their longs yesterday. (bummer)

Today:- Expectation that the gap on the downside would close, or move into a 44 point move down, this aligns with upper resistance of the weekly 50% level @ 6716…

A gap completion down, doesn’t support Buying, it confirms rotation back down in ‘gap’ closure where day-traders partial exit on 44 points down with the expectation that gap will close…..

Partial exits on 22 points from swing highs @ 6698, and move to breakeven stops from entry or above todays highs with gap ‘closure’ expectancy…..stops above highs should move any 'shorts' to breakeven $dollar return if stopped out....

SPI 7th November 2007

8:35am

%Rate new out this morning and it will probably open nowhere near sycom close, as show in the chart above.

Yesterday was part of the 2-day rotation upwards with the expectation of the market moving back towards 6699, and by looking at the pivots above 6709, the market looks to be heading upwards into that level.

There are no 'new' positions on the SPI today, as they were stopped out at breakeven yesterday.


Day traders:- Risk 6656

#1. Hard call today because of where the market opens, a bullish day would see the market push back down in '6656-gap' and be supported, before it moves higher into the close.

#2 Keep in mind, that the best trades in rising markets are from lower 44 point 'spiral points', or using the previous high as support. If it's going to be from a 44 point low then price will be back under 6656, so it needs to move back above risk to confirm intra-day support

#3 market rallies upward on open and completes the 44 point move into the higher pivot, if that's the case there could be a possibility of a rotation back down into the gap @ 6656 later in the day, because of price trading below the weekly 50% level and a 3-day 'sell-cycle'

Today's open doesn't have any clear trades for position or swing traders...

Technically:- a bullish 2nd day UP rotation would need to close above Monday's highs to swing the cycle from a 'sell' and into a BUY cycle.

I'd be surprised to see major weakness today, but any rotation down would be back towards Monday's lows based on weekly trend and 3-day 'sell' cycle....

US report 6th Nov Part 2

Higher timeframes supporting the market, with this week having an UP bias as it tries an rotate back towards the weekly 50% levels after verifying major 'Support'

Technically the higher timeframe trends remain supported, but short-term the trends and cycles are weak:- they are both trading below Weekly 50% levels and in 3-day 'sell' cycles.

However, the expectation remains 'choppy' days with an UP bias off support....

US report continues......

Tuesday ended up a choppy and rotating day trading between both 'Dilernia pivots'

The important part of this price action was the early rise upwards and then the rotation back down into the lows. Because that price action changed the intra-day cycle around early in the day, tested the cycle lows intra-day and bounced....

At this stage the view is that this trailing (white) line will be the support line for the rest of this week in both markets as they rotate upwards with an UP bias this week..

US Index Report 6th November 2007

DOW & ES minis...

US markets currently supported around their higher timeframe 50% levels, both Quarterly and November

Weekly Support: - November 50% levels. DOW 13490 & ES 1493

US report continues below.....

Expectation that these levels will support price, and that this week will be a similar as the previous UP week. Choppy with an expectation of a rotation back towards the 50% levels in both markets.

Weekly 50% levels rotation zones @ DOW 50% level 13754 & ES 1528.75

US report contines below....

Monday trading below Risk levels and pushed down, same price action as two weeks ago.

Tuesday:- Risk levels on both markets

DOW Support 13565

ES-minis 1505.75 support

A bullish swing would remain above the breakout zones....

A choppy day will see a 95 point move on the DOW upwards before reversing back down and into support (13565).....same applies on the ES into another rotating choppy day...

GBP/USD 6th November Part 3

GBP/USD:-

Higher Weekly open and expectation of a 2-day reversal in the market. Ideally back towards the 3-day lows @ 2.0670

Yesterday's trade confirmed with the break of the trailing support line @ 2.0835, with the first partial exit on the 90 pip low.

As we can see there has been some buying support come in around this low, however the trailing resistance line is now 2.0815. This trailing resistance line should hopefully send the market down towards the 3-day lows, as part of the 2-day rotation back down.

Traders can run trailing stops above the line or breakeven stops from the previous break (entry price)

SPI 6th November part 3

11:20am

Day traders:- exit zone 6660

Swing Traders:- exit zone 6699 (breakeven stop from entry)

Position traders:- exit zone 6699 (breakeven stops from entry/ hold overnight)

SPI 6th November part 2

10:25am

SPI- 2-day reversal as it rises upwards from 6617...

Partial Exit at R44 highs @ 6660...

Day-traders partial exit @23 point range highs which match the pivot @ 6643 with the expectation that a rise upwards from 6617 will move 44 points

Breakeven stops from entry below 6617..

Risk 6617

SPI 6th November

8:35am

SPI:-

A break of the 3-week lows of 6572 and expectation is that the market will begin a rotation back down into the November 50% levels @ 6362

Whenever there is a break of the 3-day lows, (Friday) there is a historical expectancy that around 72% of the time since 1999 that the next day will try and rotate upwards, that was the view yesterday. Instead Monday followed the trend down.

Therefore:- there is still the expectation that there can be a rotation upwards today and into tomorrow.

Weekly trends:- Whenever there is a Weekly UP trend often we see every day's low is confirmed with a R44 spiral point. These lows often send the market higher a minimum 44 points and then continue higher the next day, and each day the same thing happens.

Yesterday we saw the opposite, the R44 Spiral point 'high' sent the market down, and trending down. Now if this market is a 'down' weekly trend this week then the R44 Spiral point 'high' @ 6617 is going to be critical, because a rotation down from the Spiral point, and a break of yesterday's lows could send the market down towards the lower pivot.

I wouldn't even think about trying to trade longs below yesterday's low.

A bullish market would and should remain above 6617 and continue to move upwards.

GBP/USD 5th November part2

GBP/USD:-

Start of the trading week and looking for a 2-day reversal, ideally back into the 3-day lows @ 2.067

Report continues below…..

Partial exit @ 90 pip bar completion and let the market run it’s 2-day pattern...

US report 5th November 2007

DOW & ES:-

US markets currently supported around higher timeframes 50%.

Major support has been verified but at this stage the short-term is weak. It’s trading below the 3-day lows and below the 3-week 50% levels.

Friday remained below the Risk levels, and currently Monday is trading below them.

The last time the market rose upwards, actually saw Monday push lower before reversing upwards…

Report continues below.....

This time any push lower in both markets would be towards the lower pivots, whilst price is trading below both Risk levels on Monday…

DOW….13655 & ES-minis1520

SPI 5th November part 3

2:10PM

SPI:-

A bullish market in Australia would have normally seen today rally on Monday at the start of the trading week, but the 3-day lows and break of the weekly 50% level of 6716 is sending the market back down, with a break of thE RECENT weekly lows, and expectation is for the market to rotate back into the November 50% levels @6362

GBD/USD Monday 5th November

GBP/USD

British pound has followed the market dynamics higher into November highs.

The breakout of the previous weekly highs @ 2.055, and the expectation is that the current week will go higher into the end of the trading week.

The start of the new week and weekly dynamic resistance has moved from 2.055 to 2.091.

Around these highs the expectation is that the currency will normally ‘stall-rotate’ back down for 2 days…

On Friday the Pivots supported the market, and on Monday those pivots are back inside the range with matching resistance around 2.092.

Any 2-day reversal has a random length, ideally back down to the lower pivots shown above..

505mins splits the day into 3rds….

Report continues below.....

Looking at half the 505mins, the trailing line has supported the market on this rise, the first confirming tool would be a break and close below 2.0835.

A break would normally continue down 90pips, before any buying support would come in, but hopefully it can remain below the break and begin a rotation back down for the next 2-days into the lower pivots....

SPI Nov 5th Part 2

10:30 am

3-day lows resistance @ 6737 and taking out the weekly 50% level @ 6715, bearish pattern.

This was confirmed with a 44-point reversal from a higher open.....

"Risk is the R44 open @ 6728:- a Bullish set-up would just rise upwards from the open of the R44 completion @ 6728, and hopefully not turn down. Because below 6728 traders need to acknowledge that the market can swing down 44 points from the higher 'spiral point' (premium report 3rd November)