Index Futures, Forex Reports 26th July 08


Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...


Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/

DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/


EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


Note: Weekly BHP and Banking Reports Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/



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    • Posted by

    SPI Trading 25th July 2008 Recap

    SPI Daily and 5-day pattern

    The SPI's direction today was all about the 5-day 50% level.

    If it was trading above 5024 then the expectation was that price would move up into 5107 and reverse back down. (gap closure).

    If it was trading below 5024, then the expectation was that it was moving down into 4937 and then look for a short-covering rally off support....

    SPI Weekly Report tomorrow...

    Posted by

    DOW (S&P) Trading 24th July 2008

    DOW Daily and 5-day pattern

    Weekly highs resistance and break of support has sent the US markets back down into their 5-day lows.

    Whilst Thursday was trading above support the expectation was to follow the 5-day pattern higher.

    But once the support had broken and trading below the 5-day 50% level after hitting the Weekly highs, the natural path was to move down into the 5-day lows and Weekly 50% level.


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    • Posted by

    SPI & DOW Weekly July 2008



    DOW and SPI (Aussie) Weekly charts

    Expectation global markets would reverse off their July lows and swing back towards their Monthly 50% levels.

    Once they get to their Monthly 50% level next week, I've factored in another wave down to complete the downtrend in 2008.

    In the charts you can see that there is a trailing white line. This white line is the 3-week cycle, which often defines the trend within each Quarterly timeframe.

    This cycle is important because it's going to give me a better idea on the speed on any reversal downward.

    Basically, a failure to close above that level next Week (close of the month) and there is a good chance that market will begin the next down trend.

    If Market closes above that level next Friday (close of the month), I still favour further weakness, but it might take until after September and the next Quarter to begin the downtrend.

    A Friday close above the 'cycle' next Friday can attract more short-covering for the rest of this Quarter.

    So let's see where next Friday closes....

    Financials making good gains, and hopefully I'll be out of the of financials next week.

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    • Posted by

    SPI Trading 24th July 2008 Recap

    "SPI is headed back towards the Monthly 50% levels, and with the break of the Weekly 50% level there is a potential move towards the Weekly highs by Friday.

    If the SPI is going to continue higher, then the 5-day pattern matches another trending day on Thursday, which aligns with the move towards the Weekly highs @ 5259"

    "A bullish pattern in an Weekly UP trend normally rises up from the R44 lows, so there could be buyers appearing..."

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    SPI 16:28 Recap

    SPI moves down into an R44 low @ 5082, and then continues with the Weekly UP trend, and with the potential to complete the move back towards 5259 by Friday.



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    • Posted by

    DOW (S&P) Trading 24rd July 2008

    "US markets heading higher.....

    5-day highs resistance

    5-day 50% level (yellow support)

    not much more I can say about Wednesday...."

    Morning Report
    DOW Daily and 5-day pattern

    US markets rotating back towards July's 50% level, but at this stage they are taking the 5-day step program as each day dynamically moves higher.
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    • Posted by

    SPI Trading 23rd July 2008 recap

    "Expectation SPI is moving higher towards the Monthly 50% level in August, and could rise as high as 5103 today, depending on how BHP reacts to its own Weekly 50% level.

    If there is a sell off on open down into 5007, this will align with an R44 low, which could end pushing the market higher into the close. "

    Morning report


    SPI Daily and 5-day pattern

    SPI didn't move down into 5007, but followed the pattern of higher prices back into 5103-14.

    My probability of trading longs' up today didn't pan out.

    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) DOW 22nd July 2008 Recap

    "Trading above the Weekly 50% level, and expectation is the US markets are moving higher.

    Break of the yellow channel on Monday, and expectation is that price is pushing back down into the Yellow channels on Tuesdayand then continuing higher towards the 5-day highs..."

    Morning Premium Report


    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

    Picture tells the story on Tuesday, following the precise pattern of continuing higher towards the 5-day highs.


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    • Posted by

    SPI Trading 22nd July 2008 recap



    SPI Daily and 5-day pattern

    Expectation that the SPI is rising upwards as per Weekly Report....

    And today was all about the 5-day ranges, and trading above last week's highs @ 4937.

    Once price open lower and tested support, then the expectation was for the SPI to rise back towards the spiral filter @ 5000.


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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) DOW 21st July 2008 Recap

    "Intraday bias is to trade on the side of the Yellow channels.

    Trading below the Yellow channel the expectation is a pullback into the 5-day 50% levels.

    Therefore if below the yellow channels the bias is the trade down, verify support, and then trade 'longs' from a lower open tomorrow."

    Yesterday's Premium Report



    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

    Reversal down towards the 5-day 50% level on Monday, and looking to trade longs on Tuesday.

    Posted by

    SPI Trading 21st July 2008 recap

    "Expectation that the SPI is rotating back towards the Weekly 50% level, which matches the 5-day highs @ 4988.

    The SPI will be opening above the 5-day 50% level, whilst trading above those levels then the trend is up."

    Morning Report


    SPI Daily and 5-day pattern

    Opens higher and pushes into the 5-day highs 4988 and Weekly 50% level, stalling for most of the day before an after hours (16:00) spike and reverse...

    Posted by
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