Index Futures, Forex Reports 29th Nov 08

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/

Note: Weekly BHP and Banking Reports Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/




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DOW (S&P) Daily 27th Nov 2008 recap

"US markets continuing higher (higher Weekly close), with price looking to move towards the Weekly highs, which match the December 50% level next week.....

DOW S&P 5-day pattern:- Simply trade on the side of support..

Above it's a random length, as normally the 5-day highs can resistance price"

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DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

November's lows support as prices look to rotate back towards next Month's 50% level.

Once Monday closed above the Weekly 50% level, (HOOK pattern), the bias was to continue higher towards a higher weekly close on Friday.




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SPI 28th November 2008 Recap

For the past 3 days the SPI has struggled to move higher than the Weekly 50% level, and has remained trading around it's November lows @ 3584.

US markets have continued higher, but one of the main reasons why the Aussie market hasn't is because of the financial Index.

SPI Today:- support 3580

Depends on where the SPI opens:- above 3580 and price could continue towards yesterday's highs in late trading day.

Above 3692 and 3pm, and expectation of a push towards 3758"

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SPI WEEKLY & SPI 5-DAY

SPI has closed higher:- higher Weekly close into Friday.

Today's open above 3580 and price attraction was to 3692, and above that after 3pm and the SPI was moving towards 3758.

As mentioned in the Financial report:- Resistance levels of November disappear, along with the potential of US moving higher early next week, can see the SPI around 4050 next week.

It will be critical on US market moving higher, as the November lows support on the Indexes shift lower....

Weekly report out tomorrow

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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 27th November 08 recap



    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Thanks giving holiday in the US on Thursday, markets closed, but futures continuing to move higher...


    Posted by

    SPI 27th November 2008 recap

    "Yesterday's trading was a 3rd day sell after a 2 day reversal back into the Weekly 50% level, and as pointed out yesterday, any higher moves in the SPI would picky-back off any rises in the US markets:- higher weekly close.

    Trend guide:- 3692

    Above and it's moving towards Thursday's highs.

    Below 3692 and potential down move into 3580:- support"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI is still struggling to move above the Weekly 50% level, and today opened below 3692 and moved all the way down into 3580.

    As pointed out previously, any rises in the Australian market will have to picky-back off US markets rising higher, and that's because of the Financial index.


    The Financial Index

    The Financial Index has a November low breakout, which will struggle to rise higher during this month.

    It's the same pattern as October.

    Tomorrow is the last day of the month, and the resistance will disappear, so there is a potential of prices to rise slightly higher early next week.

    But regardless of any rises, expectation that Financials will follow the same pattern as this month and continue down into December's lows.

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    DOW (S&P) Daily 26th Nov 2008 recap

    "Australian markets have had a 3rd day pattern sell on Wednesday, but dynamically US markets are different, as both are trading above the Weekly 50% levels.

    At this stage the expectation remains that US markets are continuing higher....

    However, using the filter it's going to give traders are far better idea on any continuation upwards (Wednesday's highs)....

    Simply trade on the side of the Yellow filter"

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    DOW Monthly, Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets reversing upwards this week with number of probability patterns playing out using the Dilernia model and principles.

    November lows support, and last week reversal back towards the December 50% level.

    Daily Hook pattern above the Weekly 50% level on Monday:- probability pattern of a higher close by Friday.

    Both those pattern lend each other, as they match the Monthly timeframe support.

    5-day pattern:- simply trade on the side of support and price follows the 5-day pattern higher.

    So far the 4th Quarter has traded under precise patterns of rotation and extension.



    Posted by

    SPI 26th November 2008 recap

    "SPI opening around the Weekly 50% level and the 3-day highs.

    These levels are extremely important on any continuation upwards this week, as prices look to rotate back towards the Monthly 50% levels next week...

    A bullish Weekly trend will remain above this level (3682) and continue towards Wednesday's highs:

    Not so bullish:- and a higher open below 3682 will move right back down into 3622 and further....

    My overall view this week is higher prices towards Friday in US markets, but a 2-day reversal into the Weekly 50% level can often see a 3rd day DOWN day".

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    As pointed out in yesterday's report, Monday and Tuesday were based on a 2-day rotation back into the Weekly 50% level. (Read SPI 25th November recap below)

    An open below 3682 on Wednesday and there was a higher probability that the 3rd day would continue down.

    The market dynamics in US markets compared to the Australian market are different, where US markets are at this stage trading above their Weekly 50% level, the Aussie market is trading below.

    This also has a lot to do with the higher timeframe Monthly levels: US markets bounced off their lows last Week, whereas the Australian Market had closed below theirs.

    At this stage any higher moves in the Australian market this week, will have to picky-back off any potential higher moves in US markets...




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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 25th November 08 recap

    "US markets rallied on Monday, but there hasn't been a HOOK bar over the 50% level.

    Instead there has been a close right on the 50% levels, which now gives an each way bet on the direction of this week's trading.

    Because it's the last week of the month and bouncing off the November lows, I favour a higher Friday close:- November lows support and rotating back towards the December 50% levels

    There is no probability pattern on Tuesday other than trading either side of the Weekly 50% levels"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets continue higher on Tuesday, and has the potential to make it's way back towards the Weekly highs, which match the December 50% levels next week.

    There was no probability pattern on Tuesday simply because price was either going to rise towards Tuesday's highs, or rotate back down into Support and then continue higher.



    Posted by

    SPI 25th November 2008 recap

    "US markets have moved back into the Weekly 50% level, along with being the last week of the Month and Monday's UP day suggest that currencies and Index markets are rotating up off their November lows and moving back towards their December 50% levels next week.

    However the Aussie Market is trading below the November lows, which could easily 'cap' the market rising higher.

    Trend guide simply use 3582.

    Below and price will probably come down down into the 5-day 50% level:- random support 3472"

    Above 3582 and price will move towards the Weekly 50% level @ 3682"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    The SPI ended up trading either side of the Trend @ 3582 with a late rally after 3pm towards the Weekly 50% level.

    Even though US markets look to be rotating upwards into Friday, today's trading in the Australian market doesn't give any clues on the direction other than a rotation towards the Weekly 50% level in the first 2 days of the new week.

    The Aussie Market is still below the Weekly 50% level, and at this stage this 2 day reversal back towards the Weekly 50% level could easily reverse back down on the 3rd day.

    Therefore US markets need to continue higher on Tuesday, and the SPI needs to gap open above 3682 on Wednesday to get any more interested buyers into Friday...




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      • Posted by

      DOW (S&P) Daily 24th Nov 2008 Recap

      "US markets have moved down into November's lows:- current support.

      At this stage there is no Monthly low breakout, and with 1 week left on this month, there is a possibility that US markets could begin to rotate back upwards towards the December balance point next week.

      But first any rotation upwards would need to move back towards the Weekly 50% level, and then 'HOOK' above, which often leads to a higher Weekly close by Friday.

      Monday's trading is simple defined by the Support levels on both markets.

      Above support on Monday and price is rotating back towards the Weekly 50% level"

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      DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

      US markets have rotated back towards their Weekly 50% level.

      There has been some selling appearing around Monday's highs, but as the Monday report suggested, a Daily 'HOOK' above the Weekly 50% level along with November lows could see higher prices into Friday, as US markets rotate back towards their Monthly 50% levels starting next week.

      It's imperative that Monday closes above the Weekly 50% level, and Tuesday moves higher if any reversal pattern is going to continue this Week.


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      • Posted by

      SPI 24th November 2008 recap

      "SPI is trading below the November lows @ 3548.

      At this stage my view is that price is going to be 'capped' below this level for the next 5-days, until the end of the month.

      This resistance level will shift once the next month begins in December.

      Therefore today's higher open along with the view of price remaining below 3548 can see more weakness over the next 2 days, especially if price is trading below the 5-day 50% level @ 3480"

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      SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

      SPI trading below 3548, and Monday opened below the 5-day 50% level @ 3480 which sent the SPI down for most of the trading day until 3pm.

      "Coming into the last 100 minutes of trading and the SPI has moved above it's brown filter, which could see short-covering into the close whilst above 3399"

      Premium Report 14:10


      It wasn't until after 3pm that buyers appeared sending the market higher into the close.

      Today:- I would have expected more of a down day, along Tuesday opening much lower tomorrow, before any potential up swing later in the week.

      This could still happen if US markets sell-off on Monday, however US markets didn't breakout of their November lows, instead finding support.

      It will be quiet interesting to see if US markets have an UP day on Monday, and a continuation back towards the Weekly 50% level....




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