Weekly Index Reports have now been updated (19th Jan 2008)

Please click Weekly index reports to the right


Banking Stocks Update :- Click the Stock Report to the right


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DOW E-mini Report 18th Jan 08 part 2

US markets have continued down from the breakout the previous day, down into the 5-day extended lows on Friday..

Full Weekly report out tomorrow......

DOW E-mini trading 18th January 2008

US markets broke weekly Support yesterday and have headed down into Quarterly lows.

Around Quarterly lows is major support, and I expect support in US markets to form around these levels (shown in Weekly Report)

Trend guide has been the 5-day 50% level all week, and it should be used for Friday... don't short trade above the 5-day 50% level...

Intra-day support around the 5-day lows....

SPI Trading 18th January 08 part 6

15:30

Nice buying off the Quarterly lows today....

I mentioned yesterday about about a 'blow-off' bottom, and I think that was it....

But the Aussie Market is being pushed around by the US markets, so certain things need to happen in the US for any further upswings to eventuate.....

Full Weekly report tomorrow...

FOREX GBP/USD 18th Jan 2008 part 3

This Week GBP has had an UP bias with a lot of rotation going on....

Each day has been supported around the 5-day 50% levels and rising upwards into the daily highs, and then reversing back down

Also GBP has been moving in 120 pip ranges, and each swing low has provided a minimum 120 pip move from the spiral points....

This 120 spiral point low is matching the 5-day 50% level so the bias is to rise higher, and we know below the spiral low risk increases.

Since the last post price moved up 33 pip reversed back down into the 5-day 50% level and hopefully it will continue higher....

Don't trade longs below the recent low....

FOREX GBP/USD 18th Jan 2008 part 2

GBP tested support 5-day 50% level 1.9672 and now rising.....

Expectation that price is heading towards Friday's highs...

However, intra-day resistance is around 1.9715-1.9726

Therefore it needs to break above that, stall and consolidate before heading higher during US hours....you don't want to be shorting above intra-day resistance.....

Below 5-day 50% levels LONGS open to Risk...

trading longs off support look to partial exit around 32-43 pips off the swing lows, with stops just below the lows, and hold......

SPI Trading 18th January 2008 part 5

12:25

SPI moved back into the 5-day highs and took out my trailing stops at entry price.

There is still a lot of resistance around these highs....

Re-entered shorts (2 lots) @ 5677

partial exit 5669

and holding into 5640, last lot to be nuetral for today, and no more trading...

If stopped out again (breakeven stops) I won't trade again until Monday.

Note:- it wouldn't surprise me either to see late buying in the market and head higher into the close, and back above today's resistance, due to price trading around the Quarterly lows.

I spoke yesterday about a 'blow-off' bottom, maybe today is that day...let's see where it closes...

SPI Trading 18th January 2008 part 4

12:05....

SPI rallied up from the lows and moved straight back into the 5-day lows @ 5679....

Even though I had an idea this would happen, my systems were shorting on the way up, so I didn't get back into long trades

SPI touched 5679 (resistance) and entered into shorts @ 5675

partial exit 5662 (stops breakeven from entry)...

Next exit 5640

and holding 1 lot into close

FOREX GBP/USD January 18th 2008

GBP:-

Short-term:- UP bias during this Weekly timeframe...

Support 5-day 50% level
Resistance Friday highs @ 1.9805

SPI Trading 18th January 2008 part 3

10:47

SPI swinging down from the Spiral top and Risk high @ 5651

But in my opinion it looks choppy, I can't see much downside today, unless it moves up into the 5-day lows and the reverses down later...

last trade stopped at entry after bouncing off 22 point lows

moved back up into the R44 high again....

Re-entered shorts @ 5647 (1 lot) and exitted at 5636 (neutral)

I still have a feeling it's going up, but it looks choppy atm and i'll remain on the sidelines until things settle and get matching long systems into play....

SPI Trading 18th January 2008 part 2

10:26

Lower open on the SPI and rising upwards from a lower Spiral point: -

Expectation that the market would move upwards into 5651 (44 points) and could continue upwards towards the 5-day low break and resistance…

Risk around the spiral highs @ 5651

Entry long @ 5614 (spiral bottom) (closed out on system short @ 5626)

Entry shorts @ 5639 partial exit 5630


Looking for a move back down into R44 lows with breakeven stop from entry….

Note: potential support around the 22 point lows, and could move higher back towards the 5-day lows on any support today…

Trading either way today only 2 lots minimise Risk….

SPI Trading 18th January 2008

SPI will be opening below the Yearly 50% level and around Quarterly support levels. I was looking for the move down yesterday into these levels, and a 'blow-off' bottom, and maybe today will be the end of it, but I doubt it....

My expectation that in the bigger picture global markets will find some support around these extended lows in this Quarter, but it will be the next Quarter that is going to be extending to much lower prices in 2008, and there is a high probability that any further weakness is going to continue down and follow the 2nd stage of the bear market....




Today:- Risk is simply the 5-day lows....

On most occasions the 5-day lows will end up resistance, but it will move and swing around in 44-point ranges...

Focus on Spiral points and 44 point swings (higher spiral tops) and minimise risk around spiral bottoms...

DOW- E-mini 17th January 08 part 3

This week's rally was based on the follow through on Thursday above the 5-day 50% level.....

However the push down from the 50% level, and the coming together of the daily channels has sent the market down, breaking the channels lower....

US markets have continued down into some very important levels today......

The important part of any major bull trend and support is the Yearly 50% levels based on the past 3 years of trading

12347 DOW CASH and 1374 (S&P cash)

We have already seen how markets have sold off from the Yearly balance points in 2008 down into these levels, but it's these levels in the market that define overall Trends in the market

These levels in both markets are extremely important because it becomes the 2nd phase of the bear market which can send the market down into much lower levels in 2008....

These levels in US markets have often seen support within the Quarterly timeframe, but as pointed out before, the support has been occuring above the Yearly balance points, in 2008 it's not the case.

We can often anticipate reversals in the market by using support or resistance and trading the follow through the next day, that next day was Thursday, and Thursday's price action in the US doesn't show that anyone is really interested in any UP trend continuing at this stage...

DOW E-mini Trading 17th Jan 2008 part 2

US markets have moved into Thursday's 5-day 50% level during the night session and are being pushed back down before the day session opens

The UP move this week has to see these levels break....

The DOW it is currently being pushed down :- 95 spiral bottom 12490 (risk)

FOREX GBP/USD 17th January 08 part 2

GBP has moved up over 100 pips from the 5-day 50% level into the Weekly 50% level on Thursday, and has drifted back into a consolidating pattern.

As the previous post suggested:- up bias with range trading between levels.....

It needs to breakout of the daily channels to get some more volatility back into the currency....

Australian Weekly Report has been updated...

Please click Weekly report to the right

DOW E-mini Trading 17th January 2008

US markets are trading under the January lows, and are both supported above their Weekly lows...

Wednesday's price action is what I thought would happen, and now Thursday needs to break Wednesday's highs and I'm looking for a move back towards the Weekly 50% levels......


Expectation that Wednesday would rise upwards into the 5-day 50% level and drift back down into support, before heading higher on Thursday.

That needs to be verified with the break of the 5-day 50% level, and continuation upwards.

It might not break the channel highs on Thursday, but what needs to be used is the 5-day 50% level as support, because any higher push upwards could drift back down later in the day, and 5-day 50% becomes support, and then continues higher late on Thursday, and then up into Friday......

Note: Nothing is ever a forgone conclusion in trading, but what I've analysed so far has been playing out precisely this week....

The important part is the move back above the January lows....

SPI Trading 17th January 08 part 6

15.40.....

Exited last contract @ 5802 to be neutral positions....

I would have preferred much more weakness today, like a 'blow-off' bottom straight down into 5716 today....

Since my last post the market moved upwards 22 points from the swing lows and failed by 1 tick taking my stops…

As the market is coming down from major resistance:- previous 5-day lows @ 5847 ,
Spiral top highs @ 5842 and the Trio R11…@ 5845

I re-added a short-term trade on the @ 5841 and partial exit the same trade @ 5831

Still held my shorts from 5844 (stops 5850)

As it just looked like it wanted to go down today……

Next exit 5811 (R44) and exit last @ 5802

Let's see how US markets go on Thursday....

FOREX GBP/USD 17th January 08

Trend bias UP in GBP:- no high probability trades other than using the Risk levels in the charts above.....

At this stage GBP looks range bound between daily channels until the end of the trading week....

SPI Trading 17th January part 5

11:30

SPI is continuing down from spiral top highs and hopefully continues down and not get supported above the previous R44 high @ 5824 which is currently happening

added shorts @ 5840 exitted those shorts @ 5832 on the swing up....

and remain in short positions from 5844 (stops 5850)

Risk is the R11 Trio at 5845

Note: if stopped out @ 5850 I probably won't trade shorts again until much later on, and it would need to rotate around for awhile and use the R11 trio once again and trade down from its high....

SPI Trading 17th January part 4

10:55am

Last Short position and hopfully it follows through this time....

Idealy it needs to cracks the trio low support @ 5329 and then looking for a move into 5810, and hopefully a continued sell-off down........

entry 5844

partial exit 5835....... Stops 5850

next R44 down and holding 1 lot....

SPI Trading 17th January part 3

10:44

Big rally from RISK low @ 5785 straight into RISK high @ 5842

Entry Shorts 5832 stopped 5839

Re-entry Shorts 5838 after hitting 5842

Stopped 5845

I was Looking for an R44 completion down from this level and hopefully not a rotation upwards into the 5-day 50% level.

Because if it did rotate back down, there was a good possibility of a further push down into the Yearly lows, as it follow the overall 5-day pattern lower, which is what I want to see before any major reversal upwards, as per earlier post….

I will look for 1 more short trade today…..(maybe it’s a losing battle)

SPI Trading 17th January part 2

10:02 .....

SPI rising upwards from the lower Spiral and hopefully moving into 5824

Entry 5786 partial exit 5804 and holding with breakeven stops from entry

next exit 5819 to be neutral on longs.......

10:09....

Exitted last @ 5815 to be neutral

A couple of things I'm looking for today which could provide major swings Upwards in Global markets....

Firstly US markets have to break back above the 5-day 50% level on Thursday, and my view is price is heading upwards into Friday.. It will be an important low in the market this week that has so far been confirmed around the Weekly lows, but it needs upside follow through tomorrow to confirm a move upwards.

So far US markets this week have been playing out precisely..

If that is the case, and the SPI is heading down towards the Yearly 50% level @ 5716, I'll be looking for support and counter-trend moves upwards, because if both play out today, then important lows in the market have been set for January.....

And i'll be looking for moves back towards the Yearly Balance points, probably not in this month, but rising upwards from the February balance points next month...

Full report on the Weekly index reports this weekend .....

SPI Trading 17th January 2008

Technically:- a move down to 5716 is still a possibility today.....(Yearly 50% level)

Price is back inside the 5-day range and it's pointing down to 5690

(Dilernia pivot 5706)

Risk 5785 Spiral low

5842 Spiral top

Hard call on market today: moving into a spiral low can often send the market upwards before reversing back down (higher spiral point) and following the overall trend back down into lower prices....

Then again it wouldn't surprise me to see a swing back towards the 5-day 50% level either....

No high probability trades today;- manage positions using Spiral points and higher timeframe levels

DOW E-mini 16th January 08 part 4

US markets have pushed back down into the lows from the 5-day 50% level.....

Traders now need to see some buying support back into the market, and then it has to be back above Thursday's 5-day 50% level for any upside move into Friday to eventuate....

DOW E-mini report 16th Jan 08 part 3

That's the first stage of support playing out with a rotation back into the 5-day 50% levels in both markets and hitting resistance...

We would need see the move and close above the 5-day 50% level, but it wouldn't surprise me to see prices drift back down into the lows again before heading higher the next day.....

" The market moved up off its lows, hit the 5-day 50% level, reversed back down into lows again, and then a late rally back above the 5-day 50% level"...earlier report

Because price looks lagging that late rally might be overnight.... but it looks like it's setting up for the counter-trend move upwards off the Weekly lows and higher prices by Friday

FOREX GBP/USD 16th January 08 part 4

GBP moved into a choppy consolidating pattern around the 5-day 50% level, but eventually rallied up into Wednesday's highs and reversed back down into the 5-day 50% level once again....

This week's looks like it's going to be a choppy trading week with an UP bias...


My first trade yesterday is highlighted (green circle) and the partial exits along the way...

Once I got stopped out at entry price, I didn't trade again (sleeping), but the breakout on the intra-day Ranges and crossover the 5-day 50% level was the trade I would have taken up into Wednesday's highs, and back down again if I was awake....

the Above chart is using a 22 pip range with a 32 pip Next trio, as a trend guide within the Daily ranges...

DOW E-mini Trading 16th Jan 08 part 2

9 hours since my first post on US markets, and coming into the opening hours : - US markets are still supported around the Weekly lows....

Please read the first report.....

SPI Trading 16th January 2008 part 7

16:02....

i've been sitting in my 1 lot short since this morning and the SPI has been swinging around in 44 point waves without the weakness that I wanted in the markets....

The r44 upswing and spiral point gave me another Short trade:-

Entry 2 lots 5824 and partial exit 5808.....

looking for a move into R44 low hopefully by the close (exit 1 lot on close)

Stops nows moved to 5830 and holding 1 lot overnight (exit 5770 R87)

Note: covered overnight @ 5791

DOW E-mini Trading 16th January 2008

US markets have been hovering around their Weekly lows since moving down here on Tuesday, and they haven’t budged from this level.

This move was modeled to come down to this level early this week, and then reverse off these levels and head back towards the Weekly highs.

I’ve based this price action because of the similar pattern around November lows 2007, and it was around these lows back then when US Fed cut rates.

Therefore any rally upwards needs to be pushed by a Fed announcement, because I can’t see how it’s going to happen any other way..


The Tuesday down move was a simple trade taken whilst price was trading below the 5-day 50% level, but there is no simple trade on Wednesday….

Below Weekly supports and all bets are off…

So what happened last time?

The market moved up off its Weekly lows, hit the 5-day 50% level, reversed back down in the lows again, and then late in the day rallied back above the 5-day 50% level closing above it…..

Then on Thursday it drifted back down, hit the 5-day 50% level and then rallied higher into Friday…..

So this is a pattern that I’ll be watching for…..but it needs a kick in the backside by the Fed...

FOREX GBP/USD 16th January 08 part 3

GBP/USD continuing higher and moving above the Tuesday breakout...

Next partial exit is 1.9653 (moving into 90 pips from swing lows increased risk)

and then holding last lot into Wednesday highs with breakeven stops from entry

FOREX GBP/USD 16th January 08 part 2

GBP rising above the 5-day 50% level and heading back towards Tuesday’s breakout of 1.96390…

I have no idea how things will re-act around yesterday’s breakout, but any upside moves are back towards Wednesday’s highs….

Long on break @ 1.9608

Partial exit @ 1.9632 and holding

Run stops below 1.96000 or breakeven from entry, and hopefully it doesn’t stop and heads upwards…

Obviously a failure and move back under the 5-day 50% level and trading longs is open to Risk..

DOW E-mini report 16th January 2008

Expectation this week there would be an early push down into Weekly low levels...

These levels are important reference points, becasue of the possibility of reversals upwards from these levels and the market swings back upwards towards the Weekly 50% level.

Technically there needs to be a couple of things that will need to happen to verify any reversals....

But the major thing that will drive any Upward pressure will be an announcement by the FED regarding % rates....and it has to be soon....

All bets are off with prices trading below the Weekly lows, but i'll update this thread in a couple of hours and things we need to see happen to verify a higher close into Friday. Because at this stage it's simply to early to think that this will happen

SPI Trading 16th January 2008 part 6

11:40am

SPI is rotating in 44 point ranges whilst it trading outside the 5-day lows @ 5847..

It is also trading outside the Weekly lows, and the Monthly lows... it's all pointing to lower prices...

I would like prices to sell-off today and continue down into the Yearly 50% level @ 5716 because that's the next level down as there isn't any other timeframe support in the market.

However, I know that the SPI can consolidate and continue down towards that lower level, tomorrow or overnight...but let's hope it does it today

Because this is going to complete a major rotation down in the Primary trends, and if US markets act like they did last November, there could be major trend reversals in markets this Week (Full US report later)

FOREX GBP/USD 16th January 2008

The Weekly direction was going to be defined by Wednesday's trading, the 5-day 50% level and the breakout of 1.9639..

Tuesday's late sell down has given us a fair indication of where GBP is probably heading....

A failure of the Weekly 50% level, and move baack under the break, and now trading below the 5-day 50% level the only conclusion is that price is heading down into Wednesday's lows, and probably continue down into much lower levels this week...

Wednesday's trend is defined by the 5-day 50% level....

I'd be surprised to see price move back above Tuesday's breakout on Wednesday... if it does the expectation is that it's going back to re-test Wednesday's high....(less probability)

Traders should use above levels to minimise Risk...

It's Wednesday the middle of the Week, and it's trading in the middle of the 5-day range:- each way bet

SPI Trading 16th January 2008 part 5

10:46

exitted @ 5816 and now holding l lot into close....(breakven stop from entry)

The market is either going to sell-off and moved down into the Yearly lows @ 5694, or its going to rotate in 44 point ranges outside the 5-day break of 5847...

I won't be trading longs around any r44 lows now 5811.....

Trend is defined by the 5-day lows and break

SPI Trading 16th January 2008 part 4

10:40am

SPI Rallied up into the 5-day lows and now consolidating around them....

First short entry 5841 and 5844 (stopped 5851)

Re-entered Shorts @ 5844 partial exit 5834.....

exitting around 44 point lows @ 5816

and hold 1 into close....

SPI Trading 16th January 2008 part 3

10:21

1 lot entry @ 5805 exit 5827 Nuetral positions....

Risk 5847

Above risk and price is closing the gap on the upside:- 5909-29

Below and its moving in 44 point rotations

SPI Trading 16th January 2008 part 2

10:00am

SPI opened below 5847 and has moved down into an R44 range low....@ 5790

high Risk continues to remain whilst trading below this level, but I don't have any overall levels to trade towards whilst below this......

Yearly levels @ 5716......

No trades taken this morning, as I was looking for an R22 spiral top to trade into the R44 lows....

I'll watch how the market trades for the moment, as price could swing back towards athe R44 top once again before heading down later in the day (as it remains below the 5-day lows)

If trading upwards from the R44 lows, limit longs to bear minimum lots as it's high risk....

SPI Trading 16th January 2008

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"The overnight moves are going to be dictated by US markets, and if price opens below 5920, then we could be heading down into those Quarterly targets in the Weekly report quicker than expected... (15th January)"

US markets are moving down into the Weekly low Targets and it's dragging the SPI lower, and price is opening below 5920 today....

Risk 5847 5-day lows (support) look for upside gap closure @ 5909-29

Gap trading favours upside, but only as long as price remains above the 5-day lows....

High Risk trading longs below 5847..

FOREX GBP/USD 15th January 08 part 4

GBP has continued up into the Weekly 50% level and stalled.

Often this level is a resistance level and the market continues down into the Higher timeframe support levels. However, one of these support levels has already been reached.

When we look at the Weekly timeframe, we want to be trading in the direction of the Weekly close:- Will the timeframe close higher or lower away from it's opening price?

In this case price is moving upwards away from it's open, and in theory price can move into higher prices by Friday...

If this is going to be a weekly timeframe that closes higher, then support is around the breakout and 5-day 50% level, it will often support price the next day and head towards Wednesday's high...

If the Weekly 50% level is going to be resistance, then price will often still rise towards Wednesday's highs first, but reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level and close on it's lows around this level....

Day-Traders have two levels to use to minimise Risk on Wednesday...

Position traders or swing traders, would have partial exit around the Weekly 50% level on the'breakout' but remain in the trade and filter the weekly trend with the 5-day 50% level for the rest of the week....

With the breakout on Tuesday, I would focus on moving towards the Wednesday highs, as long as price remains above the breakout on Wednesday...

DOW- E-mini 15th January 08 part 2

Price has come down into lower support levels, after move down from the 5-day 50% level...

This is the same price action that occured in November when US markets made a lower low:- Expectation that these levels can break and move down into the Weekly lows channels...

DOW 12462-401

ES 1377.82 1371.83 (As shown in the Daily charts, and as explained in the Weekly report)

FOREX GBP/USD 15th January 08 part 3

GBP has followed the statistical UP day on Tuesday forwarned by the 'rise' in Wednesday's low....

Price breakout and heading towards the Weekly 50% level, and expectation that it will move towards Wednesday highs tomorrow...

FOREX GBP/USD 15th January 08 part 2

Since my earlier report, GBP has been rising upwards, and this was forewarned by the rises in tomorrow's ranges (higher lows).....

Tuesday has a random length:- but there are certain levels, that traders should not be trading against:- above 5-day 50% level and don't short heading towards 3-day highs and certainly don't short above 1.9639 (breakout)

1.9369 is still viewed as a valid resistance zone in the overall downtrend, but a break of this high and the view is the market is heading back towards Weekly 50% level +

DOW E-mini 15th January 2008

US markets supported around Janaury lows, but my view is the markets are range bound between the Weekly tops and bottom (circled above).......

We have seen how volatile the Australian market has been today, and it could just as well be the same in the US...

Below 5-day lows and expectation is going down into Tuesday's lows, and above the 5-day 50% level, the 3-day highs should be view as resistance with some confirming intra-day tools...

12849 (DOW) and 1426 E-minis (don't short above).....