SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern
Another choppy trading day with little range length.
My preferred options today didn't play out...
Sell down on open towards 3738...
or at least swing back into a higher 42-44 high @ 3804 and sell the market down again.
Both failed the eventuate..
Weekly report out tomorrow.
S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern
Even before the JOBS data came out, S&P futures were selling down from the 5-day 50% level and heading towards the 5-day lows on Thursday.
Once the jobs figures came out, the 4 hour close below the 5-day lows, set-up further weakness down towards the July 50% levels.
Public holiday in the US on Friday.....
Weekly report out tomorrow
SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern
SPI opened below 3874, which was a pattern set-up to move down into 3846.
Support failed @ 3846, instead moving down into 3834 to close last week's gap, and the SPI closed back above 3846 after rising up from the R44 spiral low.
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The SPI reversed down from the 5-day highs @ 3927 yesterday, and the start of this month is the first time in 3 months that price has opened below the Weekly 50% level.
The previous 3-months price has opened above the levels Weekly 50% levels, and the market rallied towards each monthly high:- April, MAY, JUNE.
Therefore the trend guide is 3846 (July 50%) and at this stage it's not looking like it's going higher.
I also mentioned in last week's report… “that I'll get a clearer view of the
market after another 5-days of trading and the end of next week to see
if there is going to be a 3rd quarter UP move....
That is based on this Friday's close.
For the market to continue up, I would like to see the SPI continue to consolidate around and above 3846, and then open above 3907 next week….
Otherwise the 3rd quarter rise is open to risk.
SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern
Last day of the quarter and the bullish price action that I’ve been looking for in the 3rd Quarter is half way there with today’s move above the Weekly 50% level @ 3897
The other half is a 5-day high breakout, which hasn’t occurred:- close above 3927.
Instead rising up into Tuesday's highs and reversing down, but still able to close above the Weekly 50% level.
And with 5-day high breakout patterns in the US, it's hard to think that markets won't continue higher this week.
I’m bullish on the market in the 3rd quarter as long as price remains above the July 50% level, but at this stage depending on the price action in the US overnight, could remain range bound within a tight 2-day sideways pattern above the July 50% level until Friday.
3rd Quarter has closed, and the trend guide is now 3849 (July 50% level), with an expectation of a potential 'Thrust' pattern occuring in the new month
S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern
SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern
SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.
I was bearish on Monday, ,but the most robust pattern was to short trade around the Weekly 50% level @ 3897 down towards the 5-day levels @ 3855-60.
My current view remains that a higher Weekly open should pullback over the next 2-days, which aligns with the start of the new Q
How far is the pullback?
That will depend on US markets, but if the S&P follows a similar pattern of a 2-3 day reversal from a higher Weekly open, then the S&P can continued down towards 874 this week, which would put the SPI around 3710.
I should have a good idea about any majoir reversals based on Monday's trading in the US, and whether the 5-day 50% levels break.
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