Index Futures & Stock Reports 4 July 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

DOW and S&P Index Futures


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

SPI Daily 3rd July 2009 recap

"5-day low breakout overnight @ 3819, as price is pushed down from the Weekly 50% level breaking the July support levels.

5-day breakout has two patterns based on Resistance @ 3804

Could see the SPI continue down into Friday's lows @ 3738.

However,whenever price breaks those lows I would look for a swing back into those levels to confirm the break @ 3820.

I'm not expecting that to happen to today, but I will be looking for that move early next week."

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Another choppy trading day with little range length.

My preferred options today didn't play out...

Sell down on open towards 3738...

or at least swing back into a higher 42-44 high @ 3804 and sell the market down again.

Both failed the eventuate..

Weekly report out tomorrow.

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  • S&P (e-mini ) 2nd July 09 recap

    "US markets range trading below the Weekly 50% level and monthly BP.

    Those ‘creeping 5-day lows’ are interesting, because an ideal pattern for the market to move higher would be to see US markets come down into those 5-day lows, bounce, and close back above the 5-day 50% level

    It is bearish if prices break the 5-day lows and close below them, as markets are slipping down into July 50% levels"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Even before the JOBS data came out, S&P futures were selling down from the 5-day 50% level and heading towards the 5-day lows on Thursday.

    Once the jobs figures came out, the 4 hour close below the 5-day lows, set-up further weakness down towards the July 50% levels.

    Public holiday in the US on Friday.....

    Weekly report out tomorrow

    SPI Daily 2nd July 2009 recap

    "The closer it opens above 3861 we should be trading upwards to complete the Range @ 3881.

    Once it gets to that level it is an each on the direction, with a bias to push up towards the 3905.

    Below 3881 will push downwards a random length towards 3856"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI trading between the July 50% level and the Weekly 50% level, which is what I thought would happen until it gets closer to Friday.

    I'm very bullish in the 3rd Quarter, however that can only happen if the SPI opens above 3907 next week, and begins to consolidate above that level over 2-3 days.

    For that to happen there needs to be a bias to rise upwards, but during the day things can be choppy for the rest of this week, which was the case today.

    Once price moved up into 3881 (spiral filter high), the market was choppy back down into July's 50% level.

    Let's see how tomorrow closes, as there will be no leads from the US on Friday because of indepenece day

    DOW Futures 1st July 2009 recap

    "The DOW is starting the new Month below higher timeframe levels, but on Wednesday at this stage they are starting the day above the 5-day levels.

    No probability pattern on Wednesday, as Wednesday could remain range bound between the 50% levels and the highs."

    DOW Weekly and 5-day 50% level

    Early rally saw the DOW and S&P move up from the 5-day 50% level and back into the highs....

    Resulting in a range bound trading day below higher timeframe 50% levels.

    SPI Daily 1st July 2009

    "Today starts the new month below the weekly 50% level, where in the previous 3-months, each month began above that level sending the SPI higher each month into the each monthly highs.

    Trend guide 3874

    Resistance 3911

    Below and it’s pushing down into support @ 3846"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened below 3874, which was a pattern set-up to move down into 3846.

    Support failed @ 3846, instead moving down into 3834 to close last week's gap, and the SPI closed back above 3846 after rising up from the R44 spiral low.


    The SPI reversed down from the 5-day highs @ 3927 yesterday, and the start of this month is the first time in 3 months that price has opened below the Weekly 50% level.

    The previous 3-months price has opened above the levels Weekly 50% levels, and the market rallied towards each monthly high:- April, MAY, JUNE.

    Therefore the trend guide is 3846 (July 50%) and at this stage it's not looking like it's going higher.

    I also mentioned in last week's report… “that I'll get a clearer view of the
    market after another 5-days of trading and the end of next week to see
    if there is going to be a 3rd quarter UP move....

    That is based on this Friday's close.

    For the market to continue up, I would like to see the SPI continue to consolidate around and above 3846, and then open above 3907 next week….

    Otherwise the 3rd quarter rise is open to risk.

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  • S&P (e-mini ) 30th June 09 recap

    "Tuesday continues higher on using Monday's 5-day highs as support....

    Tuesday reverses down from the 5-day highs and tries to move back towards the 5-day 50% level over the next 2 days"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Based on my probability pattern from Monday, I was looking for a continuation upwards into Tuesday's highs for a reversal back down into the 5-day 50% level.

    Price didn't rise high enough on Tuesday, and Price reversed down into the 5-day 50% level quicker than expected.

    Based on Tuesday's close of the Month and Quarter, and whilst price is trading below the Weekly 50% level and the July's balance point, It's hard to see UPside moves in the short-term.

    I mentioned in last Week's report, that for a 3rd Quarter rise "I'll get a clearer view of the market after another 5-days of trading and the end of next week"

    And at this stage that look's like the case, because of the weekly timeframe is still trading inside the 2nd quarter, and won't complete until Friday.

    Otherwise, whilst below the Weekly 50% level, a push down towards the July 50% level could play out.

    SPI Daily 30th June 2009 recap

    "SPI Trading below the Weekly 50% level and the 3-day cycle @ 3904...

    Whilst price is below this level, the short-term is still viewed as trading 'resistance'

    However, whilst the SPI is above the spiral level @ 3887, expectation price is pushing up towards Tuesday’s highs @ 3924-27 (resistance)"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Last day of the quarter and the bullish price action that I’ve been looking for in the 3rd Quarter is half way there with today’s move above the Weekly 50% level @ 3897

    The other half is a 5-day high breakout, which hasn’t occurred:- close above 3927.

    Instead rising up into Tuesday's highs and reversing down, but still able to close above the Weekly 50% level.

    And with 5-day high breakout patterns in the US, it's hard to think that markets won't continue higher this week.

    I’m bullish on the market in the 3rd quarter as long as price remains above the July 50% level, but at this stage depending on the price action in the US overnight, could remain range bound within a tight 2-day sideways pattern above the July 50% level until Friday.

    3rd Quarter has closed, and the trend guide is now 3849 (July 50% level), with an expectation of a potential 'Thrust' pattern occuring in the new month

    S&P (e-mini ) 29th June 09 recap

    "The view is for the US markets to reverse down from these levels based on a higher Weekly open and trading below resistance:- Weekly 50% level

    However, if prices aren’t below the 5-ay 50% levels on Monday, then Monday could end up range bound between support and Monday’s highs"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    As per Weekly report, US markets were trading below the Weekly 50% levels along with higher Weekly open, and I was looking for a 2-day reversal down into the start of the 3rd Quarter.

    Expectation on a higher Weekly open below resistance is a pullback over the next 2-days towards the July 50% level, however Monday started the day near or around the 5-day 50% level sending the S&P into Monday's highs and stalling.

    I’m leaning to bullish patterns in the 3rd quarter, but I need to see certain price action to confirm another UP move based on price trading above the Weekly 50% level along with a 5-day high breakout.

    Based on Monday's trading, the price action is nearly there, as Price has closed above the Weekly 50% level but not yet on the 5-day high breakout in the S&P.

    Last day of the Month and Quarter on Tuesday, but 916 now becomes the trend guide for this week

    SPI Daily 29th June 2009 recap

    "Higher Weekly open and trading below the Weekly 50% level, and I would for early weakness in the SPI this week until the end of the Quarter.

    Based on Friday’s trading and today’s open, it makes it hard to find a high probability 'short' trade on open.

    In fact, looking at the filter,3864 looks like a continuation of support and price could push upwards to complete to 3892-97

    In that case, 3897 & the Weekly 50% level becomes a resistance level on Monday"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    I was bearish on Monday, ,but the most robust pattern was to short trade around the Weekly 50% level @ 3897 down towards the 5-day levels @ 3855-60.

    The open and trading around 3864, there was the expectation that the SPI had to rise upwards into resistance before it reversed down :- spiral top and resistance.

    My current view remains that a higher Weekly open should pullback over the next 2-days, which aligns with the start of the new Q

    How far is the pullback?

    That will depend on US markets, but if the S&P follows a similar pattern of a 2-3 day reversal from a higher Weekly open, then the S&P can continued down towards 874 this week, which would put the SPI around 3710.

    I should have a good idea about any majoir reversals based on Monday's trading in the US, and whether the 5-day 50% levels break.

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