Based on Friday’s trading and today’s open, it makes it hard to find a high probability 'short' trade on open.
In fact, looking at the filter,3864 looks like a continuation of support and price could push upwards to complete to 3892-97
In that case, 3897 & the Weekly 50% level becomes a resistance level on Monday"
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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern
SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.
I was bearish on Monday, ,but the most robust pattern was to short trade around the Weekly 50% level @ 3897 down towards the 5-day levels @ 3855-60.
The open and trading around 3864, there was the expectation that the SPI had to rise upwards into resistance before it reversed down :- spiral top and resistance.
My current view remains that a higher Weekly open should pullback over the next 2-days, which aligns with the start of the new Q
How far is the pullback?
That will depend on US markets, but if the S&P follows a similar pattern of a 2-3 day reversal from a higher Weekly open, then the S&P can continued down towards 874 this week, which would put the SPI around 3710.
I should have a good idea about any majoir reversals based on Monday's trading in the US, and whether the 5-day 50% levels break.
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