Weekly Index Reports 29th March 2008
Australian and US Index Markets: - DOW and S&P
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Banking Stocks Weekly Report 29th March 2008
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E-mini Trading Index 28th March part 3
E-mini Daily and 5-day intra-dayUS markets open the day session below Support on Friday, and head down towards the 5-day lows, as it makes its way towards the Weekly 50% level.
As per Monring report, price looks to be heading back into the April Balance point at the start of the new Month on Tuesday.
The 3-week highs are still driving the overall trend of the market, and most Global markets still can't close above those highs in 2008.
Full Weekly Report Later....
FOREX GBP/USD 28th March 2008 part 3
GBP/USD Daily and intra-day charts
Friday breaks support @ 2.0034 and heads back down towards the 3-day lows, finding support around 1.9907 on Friday.
One day left remaining until the end of the Quarterly and Monthly timeframes which will set up important levels of trading for the next 3-months
DOW E-mini 28th March 2008 part 2
DOW and E-mini intra-day
US markets about to open for the Day session, and price is trading below support and pushing down....
Below support and expectation is that price is heading back towards the 5-day lows, as per previous report.
I can't see any major Up move on Friday at this stage, normally if that was going to happen Price would be trading above the Support on Open.
It's either going to head down into the 5-day lows, or trade in narrow and choppy range either side of support most of the trading day to close out the trading week around the middle of the 5-day range.
FOREX GBP/USD 28th March 2008 part 2
GBP breaks support and is pushing down towards the 3-day lows..Next Support zone 1.99070, where once again there could be a rotation and support of 43 pip range...
DOW E-mini 28th March 2008
DOW & E-mini DailyReversal down from Weekly highs this week and back into the 3-day lows....
What's the chances of a higher close on Friday and breaking the Weekly highs for the first time this year?????
E-mini intraday
Looking at the Price action it favours a move back towards the 5-day highs.
Everything so far has played out: from the Break of the Wednesday support and down into Thursday's support, and now Friday's Support is the trend guide Upwards...
DOW intra-day
DOW missed by 8 ticks, but the same patterns are playing out...
Note: It's obvious that if price is trading below support on Friday it's not going up, but rotating back down towards the 5-day lows (lower green channels)
And a rotation back down towards the Weekly 50% level on Monday, which begins to align with the April Balance points
SPI Trading 28th March 2008 part 7
SPI 16:11I'll take that....
SPI hit 5417 and pushes back down ever so slightly before market close....
Entry 5416 exit 5406.... +10
no more trading today....
Market just looks like it wants to close higher on Friday...
SPI Trading 28th March 2008 part 6
15:30SPI Range trading between support zones and resistance zones this week using the Weekly levels.
Today saw a down move into Support and then a rally back up into the Daily resistance levels around 5417:- Double r44 range top.
Expensive afternoon to have off trading, because it has been the greatest range movement all week, especially the 2nd higher Spiral point.
Note: higher US market on Friday (report later) could result in the Weekly timeframe closing above 5464 in sycom...
Full Weekly Report tomorrow.
FOREX GBP/USD 28th March 2008
GBP/USD Weekly and Daily chartsQuarterly 50% level @ 2.0184 playing a resistance role for a number of weeks now...
The Shorter timeframes:- price is still trading with an UP bias trend, as it remains above the Weekly and Monthly 50% levels....
Intra-day...Price is pushing upwards as it follows the daily ranges higher each day.
No Probability pattern on Friday:- if it's going to head towards Friday's highs then it will break risk and continue higher.
A rotation down on Friday back into the 50% levels and it will break support and look to rotate back down into the 3-day lows
SPI Trading 28th March 2008 part 5
SPI 12:35
1.5 hours later and SPI consolidating above 5335 and either side of 5343.
It could remain like this until later afternoon and the last 100 minutes of trading.
I would still like to think that around these levels price could rise up at least 44 points, and more.
I took another long trade @ 5339 and got out @ 5349... +10
Going to take the rest of the day off and trade again from next Week, as I have to step out for a couple of hours.
Next SPI report 15:30
SPI Trading 28th March 2008 part 4
SPI 10:57SPI has pushed down into Support :- Weekly .618 and just above the previous Weekly 50% level @ 5335.
But it needs to get above the 5-day 50% level and then look for a move up 44 points....
Long 5345 stopped 5339 -6
Long 5340 stopped 5334 -6
I would have liked more Buying support of these levels today than a lack of volume.
But the overall view is to re-trace back into the April 50% levels, so I can understand that prices can come down....
On Sidelines below 5343..
SPI Trading 28th March 2008 part 3
SPI 10:36BUY zone remains 5343....
Hit a low of 5347 and moved up 22 points .....
Didn't trade the longs but moved into shorts @ 5369 on a 22 point rejection pattern, and exitted @ 5359 and 5355 +14 to be neutral...
At this stage seems to be a support zone around 5343-48
SPI Trading 28th March 2008 part 2
SPI 10:17SPI pushing back into Support:- Weekly 6.18 and the 5-day 50% level, which also matches the R44 low.
Around these levels will be my support zone to be trading longs for the first time this week.
Below 5343 I'll know I'm wrong, and the rotation back down could continue into the lower levels... @ 5319
No trades so far this morning....
SPI Trading 28th March 2008
Weekly highs Resistance @ 5443 and still have the View of Price rotating back down into the April balance point early next week before any 'potential' new UP trend can develop.
This week was the first time in 2008 that price was able to break above the 5-day highs and close above those highs. This was also confirmed with Price trading above the Weekly .618 highs.
I have been so accustomed to large 'range' days with DOWN moves that this week has been slightly less profitable because of the major drop in volatility. But I can see why that has been occurring, and why I have been trying to exit my trades at much less than 44 point lows, I've been focusing those exits around 30-36 points with an earlier partial exit of 10 points.
At this stage Global Markets look are 'range trading' until the end of the Month and Quarter before we can get some volatility back into it.
Yesterday I was looking to use 5417 and the first R44 spiral top @ 5424 as 'short' zones because of my view of the market moving down towards the April 50% levels, before a Late rally took it back up to 5443 (2nd Resistance) zone
Today:-
Lower open once again and it will probably try and move upwards again in early trading.
Today I don't have a major set-up but I think 5417 will once again play a 'RISK' level, and above 5417 the same pattern of moving higher towards 5443. But I won't be 'short' trading a Friday around 5443 because often it can break and head higher into the close. (higher Weekly close)
Below 5417 and it's moving down into the 5-day 50% level, which matches the Weekly .618, so this is a valid Support zone today:- 5343
FOREX GBP/USD 27th March 2008 part3
GBP/USD intra-day charts
GBP making higher highs, as it follows the daily dynamic ranges higher each day, but being pushed back down from the 3-day highs.
2.0024 will be support for Friday on whether price continues higher into the Weekly .618 range highs. as it follows the Daily highs, or reverses back down from 2.0150 on Friday
Full report later....
DOW E-mini 27th March 2008 part 3
DOW E-mini intra-dayUS markets have moved down into support on Thursday, with the E-mini finding buyers late in the day, but with little short-covering in the afternoon.
DOW just fell shy of hitting of Support by 8 ticks
Full Report later...
DOW E-mini 27th March 2008 part 2
US intra-day chartsAt this stage the same pattern is playing out as last Thursday;- reversal down into the 5-day 50% level, and then next day trades above the Risk level and heads higher into the close.
Whether that happens again today is a bit too early to tell, but the trend guide for today is based on using the levels above.
FOREX GBP/USD 27th March 2008 part2
GBP 'down' day isn't playing out and looks to be headed back towards the Weekly highs.
Was looking for price to come down into 2.0024 and then get some upside range movement, but it failed to reach hitting a low @ 2.0034
Trialing support is now 2.0097
DOW E-mini 27th March 2008
DOW and E-mini Daily charts
As Per Weekly report:- Expectation Weekly highs would play out resistance and rotate back down.
Looking for consolidation into the end of the trading Month where the April Dynamic ranges would give traders a better idea on the strength of the trend....
DOW and E-mini intraday 5-day chartsDownside was confirmed yesterday with price breaking support, and the expectation is that price is pushing down into Support the next trading day.
The trend is going to be defined by the Risk levels (red), as shown above.
They provided the early warning of continued weakness on Wednesday, and the same will apply today :- High risk to be shorting above Risk on Thursday.
Ideally a push down into Support on Thursday and hopefully a 'short-covering' rally off support into the close.
High risk trading longs below 'support'
SPI Trading 27th March 2008 part 5
SPI 15:10
Didn't get taken out on the lows, as I placed my exits @ 5391, hitting a low @ 5392.
That's twice in two days my exits have missed by 1 tick, I'll have to stop disclosing those exits from now on... lol (I don't think that makes a difference)
Exit shorts @ 5413 +9 to be neutral
No More trades today
FOREX GBP/USD 27th March 2008
GBP/USD Daily and intra-day chartsGBP trading above the Weekly and Monthly 50% levels, along with the market trading in a 3-day BUY cycle.
Everything in the Medium term looks bullish, but there is a 'forward drop' in Friday's trading which suggests that Thursday 'could' be a down day......
GBP intra-day chartsRisk levels for Thursday above, if Thursday is going to be a down day then price needs to be trading below 2.0024.
Around 2.0024 we could get the usual 43 pip reversal 1-2 bars (UP)
Yesterday provided the Support and continuation upwards
Below 2.0024 and it's heading back down on Thursday...
Note:- down has a random length it could support price around the Weekly 50% levels, or it could go back and re-test the 3-day high breakout @ 1.9886
SPI Trading 27th March 2008 part 4
11:09 SPI
SPI has pushed up into an R44 high @ 5424 and stalled, but it's trading above 5417...
I've entered shorts @ 5422, but I know that whilst it's above 5417 it's high risk...
I dip below 5417 and I think I can relax a bit, but over the past 3-days there hasn't been much downside to the market...
Stops 5429...
looking to partial exit at 10 points again and move stops to 5427....
~~~~~~~~~~~~
SPI 11:24
Partial exit 5412 +10 moved stops to 5425
Target and exit is 5391 to be neutral
Even though there is a possibility of further weakness today:- R44 spiral top failure and move back under 5417...
SPI Trading 27th March 2008 part 3
SPI 10:16SPI has hit a high of 5417 and stalled....
Short entry 5416...... Stops 5422
higher Risk short trade because of price not trading down from an R44 high @ 5424....
but a 44 point high puts it above 5417....
If stopped out I 'll short trade again if it fails at 5424 and moves back below 5417......
looking to Partial exit 5406 and hold...
Above 5417 and shorting is open to RISK....
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SPI 10:19
Partial exit 5406 + 10
Moved trailing stops to 5420
SPI Trading 27th March 2008 part 2
SPI 10:00Lower open on the SPI (lower Spiral point) and price is moving upwards.
We can see SPI is trading above the 5-day breakout from Monday, but under the Risk level @ 5417.
I was looking for a 22 point rejection under 5417 to 'short' trade, which the market has completed, but it's not hitting resistance or an R44 high...
On sidelines at this stage....
SPI Trading 27th March 2008
SPI Weekly ChartThe reversal upwards from March lows and the higher move on Tuesday has pushed price back into the 3-Weekly cycle highs @ 5464.
In 'Bear' Markets price won't spend much time above 5464, and the failure around that high yesterday is an important level and reference point.
5464 could end up being a major resistance level for many weeks, and that will only change once there is a 'friday' close above that level.
SPI Weekly charts 2002-2003Above is the Weekly charts in the last down-trend in 2002-2003, and we can see how important the Weekly cycles are in defining the overall trend of the market....
And it was until 2003 (double Yearly low pattern) that the Weekly cycles defined the UP trend reversal.
If and when price closes above 5464 on a 'Friday', only then we can look at the market in a different light, but at this stage I still favour global markets are heading lower in each Quarterly timeframe.
SPI Daily and intra-day chartsIn Yesterday' s report I mentioned I would like to see the SPI reverse back down and move lower into the April balance point next week for the next UP trend to eventuate.
If this is going to play out then price should be moving lower today, and the Risk level of the DOWN move is 5417.
Below 5417 and price is moving down, with a 'max' move back towards the 5-day 50% level.
However the previous Weekly 50% level @ 5335 could end up playing a 'support' role today.
Today is simply defined by 5417
Will open at a lower Spiral point @ 5418, and in UP trends this often favours an UP move, therefore whilst price is trading above 5417 the expectation is price is moving up 44 points again.
Chart reading:- I favour a down move but it's hard to 'short' trade' a lower spiral point, so I'll be looking for any 22 point rejection patterns below 5417 and 5443 (Weekly tops) .
DOW E-mini 26th March part 3
Coming into the close and US markets have remained range bound between the levels, with the expectation price is pushing down into the Support levels on Thursday...Full Report later...
DOW E-mini 26th March 2008 Part 2
DOW and E-mini intra-dayUS Markets reversing down from the Weekly highs and breaking support on Wednesday.
First downside target was the 5-day 50% level, which the DOW has reached, but whilst price is below support then the rest of today has a random outcome on how far a 'down' day will move, as per previous report.
Valid support for the 'next' UP day will be tomorrow's 'support' level.
FOREX GBP/USD 26th March 2008 part 3
GBP/USD Intraday
Bounce off 1.9936, along with the 5-day 50% level has resulted in the usual double 43 pip reversal but this time it has continued back towards Wednesday's highs.
New Upper Risk level @ 2.0116 until Thursday.
FOREX GBP/USD 26th March 2008 part 2
GBP has pushed up into the 3-day highs on Wednesday and now reversing back down into the 're-test' of Tuesday's breakout.The move down from Wednesday's highs has a random length:- which could stall above the breakout from Tuesday and consolidate into Thursday....
Or it could end up into a 'down-trending ' day and continue into a lower close, retesting Monday's lows.
Around 1.9936 there is normally some intra-day support:- 43 pips (1-2)But below this level the trend remains down on Wednesday..
DOW E-mini Trading 26th March 2008
DOW and E-mini Daily chartsWeekly highs has played out resistance for the first two days of this week.
Any further weakness on Wednesday and expectation is a push back down into the 3-day lows, as shown above, and could go as far as the Weekly 50% level the following day...
DOW and E-mini intra-dayUS markets are trading below the Risk levels early and for further weakness must be confirmed with a break of support.
Downside has a random length, but often a break of support and expectation price will move lower into the following day.
Day traders simply trade on the Side of the above levels:- first target 5-day 50% levels.
And that includes a bounce off 'support' and back above the Risk levels.....
SPI Trading 26th March 2008 part 8
SPI 16:00last 30 minutes of trading and with a slight push upwards into 5451 taking out my trailing stops @ 5445 -4
Re-entered on the move back under 5443 with still the expectation of a 44 point completion to play out...
Entry 5439 partial exit 5429 + 10 Stops 5441
Target and exit 5416......
SPI Trading 26th March 2008 part 7
SPI 15:32SPI has hit 5443 and stalled, and hopefully this time it gets some follow through on the downside.
Entry 5441 partial exit 5431 +10 Stops 5445
Exit target 5407
Note: Interesting that out of the 4 banks CBA is the only 1 that is green today.
Hopefully CBA hit the exit target tomorrow or the day after.
SPI Trading 26th March 2008 part 6
SPI 15:15SPI is pushing up into close and moving towards the Weekly highs @ 5443.....
However, there hasn't been a rise upwards from a R44 spiral low for an advanced UP move, so I would still expect a down move into a 44 point low, whether that happens late this afternoon or tomorrow is another matter.
SPI Trading 26th March 2008 part 5
SPI 12:53
Eventually SPI is making it's way down into an R44 low @ 5374
My Exit zone was 5380 but I've jumped the gun and exited @ 5384 + 33
rest of the day has a random outcome, but it could continue lower into the close, as per morning report with the reversal down from 5418 today.
Note:- With 1 week remaining until the start of April, my view is for the markets to come down and test the April Balance point (as shown in the Daily chart) before any further UP move can eventuate in the next Quarter.
Next SPI report @ 15:20
SPI Trading 26th March 2008 part 4
SPI 11 :38We have our 2nd spiral-point set-up this morning @ 5418 and hopefully we get more follow through on the downside than earlier this morning.
I've been so accustomed to having the downside 44 point ranges completing quickly for the past 3-months, but in UP trending markets volatility begins to drop, so I want to be focusing on taking out my first position earlier than normal...
Trailing stopped @ 5411 -4 from previous trade.
Entry Shorts 5417 partial exit 5397 +10 trailing stops 5421
Exit to be neutral @ 5380
Once again my view is a completion of 44 points to the downside.
Once again my view is a completion of 44 points to the downside.
Because this is the 2nd 'play' as per morning report, I'm not looking to trade longs today around 44 point lows because of the potential of a further down move. Once out of the trade I won't be trading again today.
A continuation upwards and price is heading towards 5443
A continuation upwards and price is heading towards 5443
FOREX GBP/USD 26th March 2008
GBP/USD daily and intra-day chart2-day UP move has resulted in the second day breaking the 3-day highs and continuing upwards towards the next 3-day highs in Wednesday.
Once again there is a 'two-play' scenario:- A continuation upwards into Wednesday highs (resistance)
Or a move down early on Wednesday back into the 3-day breakout to re-test the breakout level and then continue higher into Wednesday's highs on Thursday....
Risk levels Shown above:- 2.0030Above 2.0030 and it's pushing upwards into Wednesday...
Below 2.0030 and trend bias is to head down into 1.9936
SPI Trading 26th March 2008 part 3
SPI 10: 28Partial exit 5397 + 10 stops 5411....
Target 44 points down....
Next Exit @ 5474 to be neutral positions on shorts....
Random expectation after 44 point down move, whether it swing upwards from a 'spiral-low' and heads back towards 5443 and the Weekly highs, as per Morning report
SPI Trading 26th March 2008 part 2
SPI 10:11
SPI has pushed back up into the Spiral top and my view price is trying to complete the R44 down move in early trading.
Entry S 5407......
Note:- a lot of support early in the trading day with Banks still pushing up, so it could move higher into 5418 and into Weekly highs @ 5443
SPI Trading 26th March 2008
SPI Daily and intra-day chartsYesterday opened above the 5-day highs and the expectation was that price was more than likely going to rotate around in 44 point ranges.
Today will move back inside the 5-day range so there will probably be much more of a 'range' day than yesterday.
However we still need the 44 point range from yesterday to complete before we move into the 5-day range for today.
Wednesday:-
Price is coming down from the higher Spiral point so the expectation is that price is going to move down into an R44 low before the market decides on the direction of the day.
So I want to be focusing on shorting the market early into an R44 low from a higher spiral point @ 5406.
But, at the same time price could actually move up into a 2nd higher Spiral point around 5418 before it comes down into an R44 low.
Basically I have two views on today......
If price comes down from yesterday's spiral point @ 5406 there is probably more chance of a price moving higher towards the Weekly highs @ 5443 (resistance)
If Price pushes down from a 2nd Spiral point @ 5418 then I would favour a move back down into yesterday's 5-day level @ 5352.
Therefore I'm focusing on looking to 'short-trade' down into an R44 low, after that I don't have an overall view for the rest of the day other than using the previous 5-day levels as RISK levels.
Note: I won't be looking to trade Longs if price is trading below 5352 because of the view the market is moving back into the 5-day 50% level.
And there is a possibility of moving higher today into 5443 and the Weekly high range.
DOW E-mini 25th March 2008 part 2
DOW E-mini intra-dayUS markets are trading between the upper Weekly channel highs and the Daily support levels with just over 1 hour to go before the day ends.
Wednesday's support levels have moved up, which should provide traders with an early indication of this week's first down day if prices are trading below those levels tomorrow.
FOREX GBP/USD 25th March 2008 part 3
GBP/USD Daily and and intra-day chartsGBP/USD has completed the 2-day reversal pattern back into the Weekly 50% level.
The rest of the trading day has a random outcome, as price can continue higher into the next day as it chases the new 3-day highs on Wednesday.
At this begining of the trading week I had two views on the direction, and this rotation back into the Weekly 50% level was the first (confirmed with the break of the 3-day highs), and I'll need to see how the trading day closes to get a better view on Wednesday's trading.
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