Index, Forex, Stocks 26th Feb 2011 Weekly

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

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Posted by

S&P (e-mini ) 25th Feb 2011 Daily recap.

For the past 6 months the Weekly low level (1295) has provided support, as the market followed the Primary cycle towards the highs in 2011.

This could see the S&P continue to rise back towards next week's 50% level @ 1322.50.

Random resistance:- 1312-/14



S&P Weekly and Daily range.

S&P has continued to swing back toward next week’s 50% level @ 1322.50

I was looking for a minor resistance pattern of 8.5 points around the Daily 50% @ 1312-14level …

But that only lasted 4.25 points, and the larger swing pattern from Thursday’s lows took over, as Friday closed higher.

Weekly report out later



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 25th February 2011 recap

    As mentioned in yesterday's report... 4767 is a robust support zone, only after 1295 plays a supporting role in the S&P 500.

    Therefore, there is now the expectation that the SPI can move up towards next week's 50% level.

    Random resistance @ 4832



    SPI Weekly and Daily range.


    SPI has moved down into the trailing Weekly support levels @ 4767, after Monday’s break of the 5-day lows

    As mentioned in yesterday's recap... 4767 is a robust support zone in the SPI, but
    only after 1295 plays a supporting role in the S&P 500, as it did last night, and as it has done so for the past 6 months since September 2010.

    Currently we have a short-term counter-trend move up from the current lows, and back into yesterday’s level @ 4832 (random resistance), also forming a higher spiral filter which pushed the SPI back down.

    And the market closes near the middle of the Weekly range @ 4824

    Weekly report out tomorrow.





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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 24th February 2011 Recap

    Over the past 6 months the dynamic Weekly lows has supported the market during the current trend towards the highs in 2011 from the lows in September 2010

    Support 1295.



    S&P Weekly and Daily range.

    S&P found support at the Weekly and Daily lows @ 1295, providing a trading range reversal of 8.5 to 14 points.

    As mentioned in last nights’ report….


    This level @ 1295 could still play a supporting role during the current month, however these Weekly support levels diminish once the 2011 highs have already been reached.

    Whether 1295 holds support for more than a couple of days is unknown as yet.


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 24th February 2011 recap

    the trend bias is to move down into 4767, however the Daily lows could form a support zone in early trading.

    Resistance 4832.

    SPI Weekly and Daily range.

    Expectation that the SPI is following the Weekly trend back down into the Weekly level @ 4767…

    However, the daily lows @ 4793 once again formed a support zone in early trading.

    4767 is seen as a robust support zone in an uptrend, however my view is that the S&P 500 is moving lower, as well as the SPI, as it rotates down from the monthly highs in February towards the monthly 50% level in MARCH.

    And with the SPI already trading near 4767 on Thursday....it's likely to follow the trend down into 4721 (3-week lows)


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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 23rd Feb 2011 Daily recap.

    I favour a continuation of the trend towards Wednesday’s lows :- resistance 1321.75



    S&P Weekly and Daily range.

    Even though Tuesday had found support @ the Weekly 50% level @ 1312, my view was that the trend would continue to move down into Wednesday’s lows, based on another break and extend pattern (daily close below Tuesday's lows)

    Sadly on my part, it didn’t rise high enough into the resistance level to capture Wednesday's pattern.

    The current price action suggests more weakness down into the Weekly level @ 1295.



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 23rd FEB 2011 daily recap

    The Trend is likely to continue down into the Weekly level @ 4767, which will be seen as a robust support zone for this week.

    However, I'm not sure Wednesday will move down that low, as price completes the break and extend pattern from Tuesday's low into Wednesday's low.

    Trend guide 4811 (spiral filter)



    SPI Weekly and Daily range.

    The market is currently trading within the daily range after finding support using the spiral filter @ 4811, and consolidating above Wednesday's lows @ 4826

    Wednesday has also closed above the Weekly 50% level @ 4824, and this could see the market swing up towards 4881/83 (tomorrow).

    However, as noted in the morning report, today could simply be a gap fill to yesterday’s low in the day session @ 4838, and tomorrow continues down into the Weekly lows @ 4767.

    Either move will depend on the price action in US markets overnight, after the S&P 500 completed it's 2-day reversal back down into the Weekly 50% level @ 1312.


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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 22nd Feb 2011 Daily recap.

    Tuesday is still part of a 2nd day reversal pattern from Friday's highs

    Whilst below 1329/1331, the downside is towards the Weekly 50% level


    S&P Weekly and Daily range…

    Tuesday’s low provided a swing back towards the trailing resistance levels @ 1332-1334, within the daily range.

    Those levels were part of a 2nd day reversal pattern towards lower lows, which has seen the market continue down into the Weekly 50% level @ 1312, and find random support.

    There is a breakout of Tuesday's , which will normally extend lower the next day, however based on the market finding random support at the Weekly 50% level, Wednesday could move into an 'inside day'


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 22nd FEB 2011 daily recap

    Expectation that the Market will continue down, as part of the February high resistance.

    Resistance 4883-89

    Below 4863 and trend guide is to continue down into 4841 (random support).



    SPI Weekly and daily range.

    As noted in yesterday’s recap and today’s price action…

    Trend bias is to continue down helped by today’s higher open and rejection from today's resistance levels, as part of yesterday's 5-day break and extend pattern towards today’s lows.

    Once again my view is that there’s a larger timeframe reversal pattern in play that could see the next 5-days rotate towards lower support levels.

    We have another 5-day breakout on Tuesday @ 4863, which once again can extend lower on Wednesday, unless the S&P 500 closes higher.

    Anything below the Weekly 50% level @ 4824 this week, and trend bias is to towards the Weekly lows.




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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 21st Feb 2011 Daily recap.

    if below 1339.25 (channel highs), then it's part of a 2-day reversal pattern, which is a continuation of last week's 2nd resistance @ 1339 and a 8.5 to 14 point reversal towards 1329



    S&P Weekly and daily range

    Even though the cash market was closed for a public holiday, the futures market was open and a break of the channel highs @ 1339.25 reversed down precisely 14 points.

    This reversal pattern was a continuation of last week’s 2nd resistance level @ 1339, which never completed last week.

    The rest of this week is now defined by 1329/1331.







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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 21st February 2011 recap

    trend bias is defined by 4917.

    If it moves down 42 points it will break the 5-day lows.



    SPI Weekly and Daily range

    As per Weekly report, the larger timeframe trend guide is defined by 4881/83.

    This was super-seeded by today’s breakout of the 5-day lows, which often extends towards lower lows in the following day.

    However, at this stage it’s too early to tell whether the trend will continue down, or whether this is a fake break.

    As pointed out 2 weeks ago in the Weekly report, I don’t want to be buying the market at these February highs, and I would wait until the market moves back down into trailing support levels.

    And with the market trading below those 5-day lows, this is the first sign of the market reversing down towards lower support levels, but late futures buying after the cash market had closed keeps the SPI above those critical higher timeframe support levels @ 4881/83






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