Index Futures, Forex Reports 21st FEB 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/

Note: Weekly BHP and Banking Reports Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/







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    • Posted by

    DOW Futures 20th February 2009 recap

    "Expectation US markets are heading down into February's lows, along with the breakout of the Weekly lows.

    But it's not often that you get 4 days down in a row in a Weekly trend and expect the last day of the week to continue down.

    Trade on the side of support up towards the 5-day 50% level and exit.

    If Friday ends up a higher daily close, then the move down towards 7250 be part of next week's trading"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    DOW completes the move into February's lows @ 7250.

    There was an expectation that Friday's lows would support the market with the view that any support would continue down into 7250 next week.

    Except during the trading day the market broke that support and pushed the market lower completing the move down.

    Read Weekly Report




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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 20th February 2009 recap

    "Yesterday's expectation was that price would rotate back down into 3365, which didn't occur in the day session but will occur today.

    Depends on where the market opens:- closer to 3411 and we short the market down to complete the move down into 3360.

    Once the move down into 3360 completes there are two probabilities:-

    SET-UP A continue towards 3390 :- R44 high

    SET-UP B continue towards the 5-day lows @ 3322."

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened higher and began the move down towards 3360-65, which was my expectation from yesterday, so it made it a robust set-up for the morning trade.

    I wasn't keen to go long around 3360 because of the view that the market is heading down towards 3128.

    But with price remaining above the .618 Weekly lows 3351 @ 2.30pm then that change.

    Range bars and Spiral trading

    The rest of the day remained in a tight trading band between the Weekly lows @ 3351 and 3375.....

    And this was taken into account with trading this afteroon in 22-point swing patterns using spiral points and timeframe levels.


    Weekly report tomorrow.

    Posted by

    DOW S&P (e-mini) 19th February 09 recap

    "Whilst below the Weekly lows the expectation is price is moving down into the February lows:- 7250 & 725

    set-up on the US markets and rotating back towards the 5-day 50% level should push upwards from the Yellow support levels.

    Weekly lows and 5-day 50% level resistance"     Premium Report


    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P didn't move down far enough on Thursday in early trading to trade longs upwards.

    And price didn't move higher enough to trade shorts back down into the lows.

    Expectation remains that markets are heading down towards their February lows.



    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Rise upwards into the Weekly lows, and a push back down as price continues lower towards 7250.

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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 19th February 2009 recap

    "Set-up A:- Continues to be supported around @ 3353 and moves up to complete the R44 range higher and into 3419.

    This will complete the move towards 3419-25.

    If you want to position trade the market you would hope that SET-UP A plays out and you short-trade the top.

    For a move back down into 3364"

    Premium Report




    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI bounced off 3353 and completed the move back towards the highs.

    Once those highs were reached, and as per Premium Report the expectation of position shorts for a move back down towards 3364.

    I have the view that the SPI is heading down into 3128 (February lows) and these completed highs would be an ideal area to take a position.

    The rally was precise, but the tops weren't, as it kept on breaking above the channel highs @ 3432.

    Actually I expected the SPI would remain below 3425 and continue down.

    I like my patterns precise and today's 'short set-up' was frustrating, as I expected far more resistance and selling around today's highs.

    I was expecting a move back down towards 3364 in the day session after today's early rise.

    It will now depend on US markets on Thursday if the SPI has further follow through on the downside for the SPI.




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    • Posted by

    DOW Daily 18th February 2009 recap

    "There is a breakout of the Weekly lows on Tuesday, and this is a confirming pattern that price should continue down towards the February lows in both the DOW and S&P.

    Which both align around the 7250 & 725 levels.

    Push down into Wednesday's support in early trading and a swing back towards the breakout levels and weekly lows on Wednesday.

    Expectation that these levels are resistance which could push the market back down"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Weekly low breakout on Tuesday, and the same Weekly lows have resisted price on Wednesday.

    Wednesday's lows supported the market for today moving back into the Weekly lows, but once again pushing the market back down into the close.

    The expectation is for price to continue down towards 7250.






    Posted by

    SPI Daily 18th February 2009 recap

    "As per Yesterday's report:- the breakout of the 5-day 50% level and expectation price was heading down into 3353.

    This will put the SPI below the Weekly lows @ 3375, therefore the market might struggle to rise higher.

    Set-up:- opens lower moves down into 3340 and finds support, but then my view the SPI could end up in a small range day between 3340 (R44 lows) & 3375 (weekly lows)"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened lower completing the Primary range down into 3353.

    Expectation that the R44 would continue down into 3340 along with the spiral low providing a swing back upwards into a R44 high.

    As pointed out in the Premium Report, the SPI will probably struggle to move higher than 3375 today.

    As pointed out the the Premium Report:- expectation global markets are heading down into the February lows:- 3128.





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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 17th February 09 recap

    "Bearish on US markets in February, as per Weekly report:- Expectation price is heading down into February's lows.

    But it's hard to be short-trading when prices are trading around the Weekly lows....

    Looking at the 5-day patterns, you would be trading longs from Support levels back into the 5-day 50% level:- resistance.

    Break of support and extremely bearish"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Eventually it was going to have to happen if price was heading down into February's lows:- break support.

    For Tuesday's trading there wasn't any ideal 'short' set-up whilst above the channel lows, as they have often provided the support and swing up over the past few weeks.


    Once the 5-day lows failed to hold, they became resistance and the S&P will probably continue lower for the rest of this week and continue down towards the February lows @ 725



    Posted by

    SPI Daily 17th February 2009 recap

    "If it pushes upwards completing the move to 3507, then once again we have a higher spiral points with the expectation of price moving down...


    Higher Spiral points on both the R87 and R44:- trade shorts.


    Random support 3478.

    A break of 3478 today and the expectation that price will complete the move down into 3437"

    Premium Report




    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened lower on Tuesday pushing upwards from Monday's support and completing the move into 3507.

    This provided the ideal entry level for short trading down using the spiral techniques.

    I also pointed out to the readers about the 5-day filter within the 5-day range, each day the lower channels were creeping upwards.

    As each day provided support, I knew once 3478 failed to hold, then the completion of the Primary range of 87 points down into 3437 was going to finally complete.

    As pointed out in the Weekly Report:- I'm bearish on resources stocks and BHP has closed below Friday's lows.

    Tomorrow will give a good indication on whether BHP folllows the move futher down towards the recent lows in January 2009.

    Posted by

    SPI Daily 16th February 2009 recap

    I continue to be bearish on the SPI, and the trend guide for this week is 3499.

    Once again we have a higher Weekly open, with the view that whilst below 3499 price is moving down into a lower Weekly close:- random length.


    Depends on where the market opens on Monday, but around 3503-3499 I'll be looking to short for the completion down into the R44 low.

    3462-70 is random support

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    SPI Weekly and 3-day pattern

    higher open below 3499 and a move down into support.

    Monday ended up a consolidating trading day between 3503 and 3462....

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