Index Futures, Forex Reports 23rd May 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/



Posted by

DOW Futures 22nd MAY 2009 recap

"US markets look like consolidating around the middle of the Weekly range...

use the levels in the 5-day pattern.

no probability on direction"

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DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

With Thursday's failure to move up, Friday was simply seen as a consolidating trading day between the 5-day levels.

If Support breaks the previous day, then the 50% level is seen as resistance, but I wasn't expecting too much downside on Friday.



Posted by

SPI Daily 22nd MAY 2009 recap

SPI back under the Weekly 50% level @ 3789

It is also below the 5-day 50% level and the Channel lows:- 3790

Today is simply about trading on the side of the the trend lines:- 3787-89

With the bias to push down 40-44 points.

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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI didn't open close enough to 3786 to get into ideal short-term 'short' trades on open, and instead the SPI remained in a tight 21-23 point range for most of the trading day...

Which suited me fine using the spiral points and filters during the day.



Posted by

S&P (e-mini ) 21st MAY 09 recap

"Two day stall above the 3-day cycle highs, should in theory continue into a higher daily close

short-term pullback into blue/Yellow support zones

Today it's all about trading on the side of the 5-day 50% levels"

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S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

I was expecting an UP day on Thursday based on this week's patterns, especially the
2-day stall above the 5-day 50% level.

The pattern I was looking for was a move down into channel support and then for price to move above the 5-day 50% level and conrinue back towards the highs

Instead price broke support on Thursday and moved back down into the Weekly 50% levels.


Posted by

SPI Daily 21st MAY 2009 recap

"There is a Weekly HOOK pattern and this normally favours a higher Friday close.

Unless Support breaks @ 3800, then the bias is to move up today and another 40-44 point range.


Support 3795-3800"

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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

2-day stall above the Weekly 50% level, and today rising up from support @ 3795-3800.

The SPI has struggled to move more than 44 points in a trading day, but based on HOOK pattern probability, price should continue towards the Thursday highs and into Friday during sycom.

That's also based on US market's 2-day stall above the 3-day cycle breakout, which should continue higher from support (Report below)







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    • Posted by

    DOW Futures 20th MAY 2009 recap

    "2-day stall pattern after Monday's break above the 3-day cycle highs (White line)

    Wednesday highs resistance

    Support 8388"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    2-day 'stalling' pattern above the 3-day cycle highs has played out, with precise movement between the levels of resistance and support.

    This 2-day stall pattern above the 3-day highs would normally continue higher into Friday:- retest breakout and verify the level and then price continues higher from a lower Daily open, which is Thursday.

    But it's hard to have that view when price is already trading around the MAY highs.



    Posted by

    SPI Daily 20th MAY 2009 recap

    "I'm expecting a 'down' day, or at least a 44 point reversal down.

    Therefore in early trading our Trend guide is 3847, along with the expectation price is reversing back down into the 5-day 50% level @ 3805...

    As part of a retest of yesterday's break

    Support 3782-89"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early sell-down on Wednesday to retest Tuesday break and Weekly HOOK pattern.

    Based on the current price action and as part of the Weekly HOOK pattern, there is now an expectation of higher prices into Friday.

    However, that's going to be determined by US markets and how they re-act to their own 5-day 50% levels, and whether the SPI opens much higher.




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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 19th MAY 09 recap

    Normally a higher open would come back down and retest the 3-day cycle high break out from yesterday, which is around the 5-day 50% levels:- 2-day stall

    Tuesday's highs are random resistance.


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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Tuesday high reversal pattern towards Monday's 3-day break @ 897.

    Today is the first day of a 'stall' pattern to retest Monday's 3-day high break.

    Next Probability needs to be defined after Wednesday's trading.

    It's hard to see more Upside due to the MAY high Resistance levels, but at this stage I can't discount it.



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 19th MAY 2009 recap

    "Price now opening above the Weekly 50% level @ 3789 in the SPI.

    I mentioned in the Weekly report, that a Tuesday move above the Weekly 50% level could result in a HOOK pattern that pushes prices higher this week.

    Tuesday:- Support 3788-91"



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened above the Weekly 50% level resulting in a push upwards, and with a late move to complete the range @ 3844.

    It will be interesting on what happens in the US markets on Tuesday, because such a rally on Monday would normally come back and retest the 3-day cycle break the next day to verify the break.




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    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Daily 18th MAY 2009 recap

    "US markets currently supported around their Weekly 50% levels.

    An up day would be towards the midpoints and a higher daily close"





    DOW S&P Weekly

    US markets opened on the Week's 50% level, a lower Weekly open, and around the 5-day lows providing a probability of an UP day and a higher Daily close.

    But I'm even surprised about how far US markets moved up on Monday.

    An ideal pattern would have seen US markets stall and close below the 3-day cycle highs (White line), providing a higher Daily open and short-sell on Tuesday, as price is coming down from the MAY highs.

    Above the 3-day cycle highs, and Tuesday looks like a small range day.


    Posted by

    SPI Daily 18th MAY 2009 recap

    "Last week there was a 5-day breakout pattern and a retest of the breakout pattern on Friday.

    This favours a continuation down:- retest and verify the break and continues with the trend.

    If price moves down early, then Monday should be defined by 3722 with the expectation of a 40-44 point range completion"



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early selling pressure into random support on Monday @ 3722

    Late range reversal into the close.

    The rest of this week should be defined by the Weekly 50% level @ 3789.


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