Index, forex, stocks, Commodities 1st October 2011 Weekly

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

DOW and S&P Index Futures


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

Gold & Silver Weekly Reports

Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, TLS, Banking Report Update

S&P 500 e-mini futures 30th September 2011 recap

Daily 50% level @ 1151.50 is the trend guide.

Bearish below 1139

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

Trading below the Weekly 50% level and below the daily 50% level was going to push pressure on the market to move lower.

Along with 1139 providing less probability of support, as the market will often extended outward on Friday:- lower Weekly close.

Weekly Report out later.

SPI Futures Australian stock Market 30th September 2011 daily recap

Today's trading is based on whether price remains choppy and closes near the middle of the 5-day range @ 3978

My view is that 4034 might act as resistance in early trading and push the SPI down into 4014... this will form the next spiral filter that aligns with the daily level @ 4014.

My view is that it will then try and move up towards 4046-49 (resistance)

SPI Weekly and Daily cycles

Early sell down from 4034 into 4014 (21 points), this set-up a move upwards using the daily level and matching spiral filter, with Friday reaching a high of 4045

Once the market closed back under 4014, it was going to struggle...

as it tried to close in the middle of the 5-day range.

S&P 500 e-mini Futures 29th September 2011 daily recap

Daily channel matches the Weekly 50% level @ 1165 (resistance)

Therefore there's a strong reason why price could be pushed down 14 points...and as low as the daily channel lows @ 1133. (support)

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

nice short-trade set-up @ 1165 using the daily channel and the Weekly 50% level  providing a move down into the daily 50% level @ 1149....

and then further weakness towards the channel lows @ 1133 (support)

SPI futures Australian stock Market 29th September 2011 daily recap

There are two plays in early trading...using 4022-25 as resistance.

continues down from 4022 & below 3997, and moves down to 3980, this will form the next spiral filter...(random swing point)

Therefore 3980 is a potential swing point 90 minutes, which could result in Thursday moving into a consolidation 'choppy' trading day', but as high as 4033

SPI Weekly and Daily range

Early sell pattern down into 3980…

This formed support on the 2nd bar, and then price reversed back up towards 4022-25.

4022 was the top, resulting in a consolidating trading day above the 5-day 50% level @ 3997, with an upward bias...

but below the Weekly level @ 4025 (remains bearish)

S&P 500 e-mini futures 28th September 2011 Daily recap

Trend guide 1170

Resistance Wednesday’s highs

Support 1148

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

Wednesday tried to continue upwards, without reaching  the daily highs…(resistance)

Resulting in a late sell down into 1148, which hasn’t provided support.

And this could put added pressure on the S&P 500 if it begins trading below 1133 on Thursday

SPI Daily Australian Stock market 28th September 2011 recap

I'm leaning towards the SPI coming down into 4029, (84 points down from sycom highs) and that could happen from 4054.

If it happens from 4054, then it has more reason to move upwards & complete the next spiral filter (42 points up)

SPI Weekly and Daily cycles.

Market moved down on open from 4054, and this completed the Primary range @ 4029 from the sycom highs.

This then set-up buying support & a rotation upwards from today’s lows, but without reaching 42 points. (4069) during the cash market hours

S&P 500 e-mini futures 27th September 2011 recap

Tuesday's levels in the daily range favours an UP day, but I'm not sure price will continue as high as the daily highs:- which match the Weekly highs (resistance)

Support:- 1155 & 1144

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles.

As noted in Monday’s report….

the DOW finding support last Friday around it's single monthly low (red), it has more reason to rise upwards in the last week of the current month, and move back towards the Weekly highs.

The S&P doesn’t have that exact same support pattern, but it looks to be following the same price action of moving up towards the Weekly highs/ new monthly 50% level in October.

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 27th September 2011 recap

My view is that the SPI will fade the open towards the 5-day 50% level @ 3947.

if above 3980-85, the market will try and continue up towards the Weekly level @ 4025 (resistance)

SPI Weekly and Daily cycles

Early sell on open towards the 5-day 50% level, and then more buying to send the SPI up towards 4025.

This Weekly level can form resistance and send the SPI back down towards the Weekly lows later this Week.

However, that will depend on price action in US markets...

as a rise upwards in the last week of the current month can often see the usual rotation towards the new monthly 50% level in October.

S&P 500 E-mini futures 26th September 2011 Daily recap

Patterns at play...remains within the blue channels (first target 5-day 50%)

note:- blue channels match the Weekly levels in the S&P 500 (1117-1119)

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

Support came into the market around the daily and Weekly levels @ 1117-1119.

This saw the market rise into the 5-day 50% level @ 1149, which formed an intra-day resistance zone of
14- points

And more buying has seen the trend continue up towards the Weekly 50% level.

SPI futures Australian Stock Market 26th September 2011 recap

resistance @ 3942

and with the expectation that price is moving down into Monday's lows @ 3863-73

as price moves towards the Weekly lows @ 3809

SPI Weekly and Daily

higher daily open, but when price dipped below 4942, it stayed below....

 and continue down into Monday's lows.

downside target Weekly and Monthly lows