Index Futures & Stock Reports 26 SEPT 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update


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    • Posted by

    DOW Futures Daily 25th Sept 2009 recap



    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    This week was about looking for a continuation down into a lower friday close.

    US markets pretty much followed the 5-day pattern precisely this week and into Friday's lows.

    Based on this week's price action I would favour more weekly rotation starting with an early 2-day UP move from the lower Weekly open next week.



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 25th September 2009 recap



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern


    5-day lows @ 4653 on Friday and the September highs @ 4656 support the SPI sending the market back into higher highs, which was much higher than I expected today

    At the start of the day I was bearish because of the price action in US markets, but if the 5-day lows don’t break price will swing back towards the 50% level.

    Expectation was Set-up A lower open and rest the 5-day lows on Friday with the expectation they would fail.

    The up swing wasn’t unexpected towards 4705-12

    Set-up B:- was a bounce off 4653 (Friday’s lows) and back above 4663 would more than likely swing the SPI back into the 50% levels:- 4705-12

    Normally I would look for a swing back into the 5-day 50% level and for the market to stall, and even reverse down into the close:- SET-UP C

    As pointed out in the Report, if it starts to trade above 4705 (intra-day spiral filter) there was a potential break on the upside towards 4745.


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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 24 September 09 recap

    "2-day rise into the 5-day highs on Wednesday set-up a break of the 5-day 50% level and move down into the 5-day lows on Wednesday.

    As per the set-up, there is an expectation that there is going to be a lower Friday close, which could see prices back around the Weekly 50% levels.

    2-day pattern play….

    Thursday rises up from Wednesday’s 5-day lows and hits Thursday 50% levels and continues down into the lows (SET-UP A)"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    5-day pattern sell from Wednesday has continued down into the Weekly 50% levels.

    There is a view of a lower friday close, however with the Weekly 50% levels it will depend on friday's 5-day set-up on whether the trend will continue down and below 1035.




    Posted by

    SPI Daily 24th September 2009 recap

    "Because of the price in US markets on Wednesday along I’m focusing on short-trading today using the levels in the 5-day range.

    Support 4703 resistance 4739

    For the market to continue down into Thursday's lows we need to see a R42 close below 4703 @ 4697"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early move down into 4703 saw a swing back towards the upper channels and resistance.

    Today remained in a tight trading range between the levels in the 5-day range, but I was looking for more weakness into the 5-day lows.

    The SPI never moved down into 4697 to confirm a HOOK and break pattern.




    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 23rd September 09 recap

    "The pattern I would like:- the 5-days hit, stall, and then look for a break of the Support levels on Wednesday from a move down into the 5-day lows with the potential of a lower Friday close"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Expected up move and sell pattern occurred 1 day late using the 2-day pattern rise and 5-day high sell, but the important pattern was Wednesday’s break of the 5-day 50% level and move down towards the 5-day lows..

    As per the pattern, whilst price is below 1062 I would look for a continuation down towards a lower Friday close, which could end up around the Weekly 50% levels.

    Because there isn’t a break of the 5-day lows, the market can still remain range bound within the 5-day range over the next two days.







    Posted by

    SPI Daily 23rd September 2009 part 5

    "Robust support 4656:- September highs and 5-day 50% level.

    If the SPI is going to continue higher it will remain above 4705 and continue towards Wednesday's highs"



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    There was a 2-day stalling pattern on Monday and Tusday this week, but remaining above the robust support zone of the September highs.

    There was also an expectation that US markets would continue higher on Tuesday, setting up a continuation of the trend on Wednesday.


    Today's set-up was based on the breakout within the 5-day filter on Wednesday above 4705, with a bias to continue towards the 5-day highs in the short-term.






    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 22nd September 09 recap

    "I mentioned in the Weekly report & Yesterday's report that I have a feeling that US markets would continue higher into Tuesday.

    Yesterday's price action of early selling and then a higher daily close above support often sends markets higher, with a continuation towards the 5-day highs on Tuesday"




    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    I expected more upside on Tuesday & hitting the highs.

    If that price action had occurred then Wednesday's 5-day 50% level would be the trend guide for the rest of this week.

    Often when the first two days continues higher and reaches the 5-day highs on Tuesday, the proceeding day can reverse the trend on Wednesday, simply because price is already trading around the monthly highs in September.

    That would be confirmed with price trading below the 5-day 50% level the next day.

    Because this hasn't occured there is a bias to continue towards the Weekly highs.



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 22nd September 2009 recap

    "4656 is a robust support zone :- September highs and 5-day 50% levels.

    The first 21 range today will set-up the trend guide...

    if it moves down then the bias is to continue higher on Tuesday towards 4728+

    If it moves up and forms a higher spiral point @ 4690, then there is a potential drift down into support levels:- 4655-59"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI remains trading above support levels on Tuesday but it was an extremely slow and frustrating day.

    Once the first 21 point range completed, it was either going to continue higher and follow the 5-day range into higher highs towards 4728+

    or it was going to hit 4690 and then drift back down into support.

    It drifted for most of the day below 4690, but it was extremely choppy and didn't follow through into support levels.



    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 21st September 09 recap

    "The S&P has hit the 3-year 50% level @ 1073 and stalled.
    There is a higher Weekly open and trading below the September highs @ 1062.

    If there was ever a reason for this week to reverse down then this pattern should provide that.

    However, I'm not sure that's going to be the case in the first two days because of Friday's close above the 3-week channel highs @ 1055, which might see another push up towards the 5-day highs again in the first 2 days"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Monday started with the usual higher Weekly open and sell pattern, helped by higher timeframe levels:- resistance.

    However, because of last week's close above 1055, I didn't think markets would close lower on Monday.

    The push down and higher close above support in the 5-day pattern can see price around the 5-days highs once again on Tuesday, if price is above 1062.



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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 21st September 2009 recap

    The Trend guide is going to be the spiral filter @ 4676: support

    Resistance 4715 ...


    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    Early rise into a spiral high @ 4715 and a reversal down, but remaining in a tight trading range.

    At this stage price is trading above the September highs @ 4656 and above the 5-day 50% levels, which are viewed as the trend guides for this week.

    As pointed in the Weekly report, i'm not expecting a break of support in the first two days this week, but that can obviously change if the S&P reverses down from resistance levels on Monday.





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