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Bad day on Financial stocks, with Bear Sterns dragging the market down, and every other financial stock following the same path...Down.
Coming into the last hour of trading in the US and markets have remained below the 'Support-break', with some buying support after the FED stepped in to bail out Bear Sterns.
Obviously the bad sentiment of financial stocks will follow through early next week, and that's also the view with the breakout of the Support with the view that price is moving into a 'double-down' day into Monday.
Full Weekly Report out tomorrow.....
Expectation that GBP would come down on Friday to re-test the 3-day high breakout. (read previous report)
This was completed early on Friday and the Sterling rallied, but has now drifted back down.
This is now setting up a rotation back into the Weekly 50% level for next Week, as per previous report.
Below 'support' and expectation both markets are moving into a double- down day into Monday...
Both US markets consolidating under the Weekly 50% level, and below all higher timeframe levels.
The Trend remains down, but with March Contracts expiring next week, there is often a tendency to rise upwards during the week of expiry.....
Below and it's pushing down into the Weekly lows (5-day lows)
Even though the bigger picture is weak with the consolidation below the Weekly 50% level, the 5-day pattern is currently above the 5-day 50% level, so at this stage the bias is to move higher, until the opposite occurs... (Break of support)
SPI sold down into and R44 low and testing the Weekly lows (Support) 5165.
Not interested in trading Longs around the lows, and leaving the rest of the day to trade out, next trade Monday.
Full Weekly report Tomorrow.
SPI completed the R44 range down from open and has moved higher into another R44 range around the 5-day 50% level.
This is the first time in a while that this price action has occured, and still remains inside the Weekly lows @ 5165.
A breakout above today's highs in the afternoon could result in the market moving towards the upper target of 5284....
I switched back into shorts @ 5213 partial exit 5203 +10 ..... (stops 5218)
Random expectation market can swing around another 44 points like Tuesday, or break higher and continue the move towards the upper targets, which looks like happening.
GBP has continued higher, trading above all higher timeframe 50% levels, and with the expectation that price is heading towards the March highs 2.0600..
However Thursday's closed below the Weekly .618 high, and this week's UP move might have stalled until next week...any reversal down on Friday and the expectation is that the Quarterly highs @ 2.0184 should support price.
SPI pushing down into an R44 low....
Random expectation on whether market will rise upwards off an R44 low or not.
Hasn't been too many reversals above the 5-day 50% level after the initial down move and 44 point completion.
On most occassions it keeps on going down into the next support level (5165) ,after failing the 5-day 50% level.
Entry 5204 exit 5289 + 15
SPI opening near the 5-day 50% level @ 5209, and this is the trend guide for Friday.
SPI is also back inside the Weekly lows. (5165)
A higher open on the SPI and once again I favour a down move into an R40-44 low before any upside..
Note: the high of the last 44 point bar from Yesterday is 5166, which matches the Weekly 50% level, therefore I would like to think that this 'gap' can be closed this morning.
Today is Friday and price is still trading near the open of the Weekly timeframe from Monday, therefore we are looking for a push away from the open:- above 5209 and we are using the 5-day ranges from yesterday and today....
Upside levels of interest are 5247 and 5284.
Below 5165 and expectation the trend is closing down on Friday, trying to move towards March lows.
Last Word:- the 5-day ranges are a major driving force in the market, and the levels often play support-resistance, and also attract price towards the levels each day. The further the level away the greater the market will move.
However within the trading day, the range rotations don't always play out the same, yesterday was heavily influenced by 22 point rejections, whereas other days are often influenced by smaller ranges when markets consolidate (14-18 points)
On Tuesday 44 points was a major trading range, because of the 5-day levels (support-resistance)
It is often a good idea to keep an eye on price action within the trading day and adjust, espescially after the first 90 minutes of trading has taken place (thrust), because it will give intra-day traders a good idea on short-term 'scalping' trading whilst the market is travelling from one level to the next, or consolidating above or below the 5-day levels.
If I find a range rotation that is dominate in the market for the day, I will try and inform you.
US markets pushed down early in the day, failing to reach the support zone that I wanted to trade longs, before swinging back towards the Weekly 50% level.
The move back above the Resistance line, is an important price pattern that could set up another higher move on Friday.
Note: Expiry of March contracts next week, and there is a tendency to push markets higher into expiry.
Full report later
US Markets failure at the Weekly 50% level and push back down on Wednesday.
Will the same price action occur in the US markets as what occured in the Australian market:- break of the Weekly lows????
Resistance as shown above in both markets, and any selling pressure and expectation price is being pushed down into support.
Random expectation on whether support holds or breaks on Thursday.
Breakout of support and expectation of a double down day into Friday, as it moves towards March lows.
SPI has continued down into the Weekly lows @ 5165.
This is an extremely important support zone in the market today, because below 5165, it becomes a breakout after a failure of the 3-day high.
The next Support levels are much further down....
I'm not trading longs off the Weekly lows @ 5165 today because it looks like it wants to go down in March lows....
SPI consolidating under the 5-day 50% level from Wednesday, and has played out two
22-point rejection patterns, with the highest probable pattern being the 2nd R22 rejection....expectation that the R44 will complete @ 5195.
Entry short 5318 exit 5310 +8
Entry short 5324 exit 5309 +15
Very choppy this morning
Note: after R44 completion it has a random outcome on direction, and with price trading below the 5-day 50% levels it can easily continue lower.....
The direction on Thursday is going to be defined by the above levels in the market, but first of all the last 44 point range bar from Wednesday needs to complete the range to get the first Spiral point.
For example: And this will depend on where the market opens, the spiral point @ 5227 needs to be pushed away 44 points to officially moving into Thursday's trading, so that's the Risk level on open.
Once the 44-point range is complete then the 5-day levels will be confirmed.
If the market is going to follow the Weekly trend down after the failure of the 3-day highs yesterday, then I would like to see the first 44 point range complete on the UPside to give me a higher Spiral point and 5-day 50% level to trade the market down.
If the market moves down on open and completes the R44 Spiral point, then this is a lower Risk level to be going long, as long as it matches the Weekly lows @ 5165.
Above the 5-day 50% level today and expectation is price is pushing back towards 5342
Below the Weekly support @ 5165 and market is moving down towards the 5-day lows.
This week will be defined by the Support on Thursday...
Full report later
The Weekly 50% level should be the trend guide for Wednesday's trading.
SPI filled the rotation down into the 5-day 50% level @5235 and has found support...
Once price moved under 5334, the next support zone down was the 5-day 50% level....
The price action that I wanted to play out this morning before any higher moves this week....
Quarterly 50% level still resistance:- 2.0184
This Week has seen a higher Weekly open and expectation of a 2-day reversal down. This has completed with Tuesday finding support .
There is still a large gap to the Weekly 50% level.....
SPI Exit 5338 + 27
SPI is coming into an R44 low, which matches the 3-day break, and is also trading above an important Quarterly level....
If there is going to be a reversal up into the 5-day highs, then this is the level....
Otherwise trading below 5334 and the lower gap could fill (5-day 50%)
Note: If market keeps on rising upwards without reversing down 44 points, then we might get a R44 Spiral-low closer to 14:36 with more late buying into the close
SPI Rallied on open 44 points and into the 3-day highs and Risk level @ 5334.
I'm still looking for a 44 point reversal down before the trend can continue higher, but I know that trading above 5334 the market can move higher.
Short 5342 R11 reversal bar stopped 5351 -7
Short 5346 partial exit 5338 +8 (stops 5351)
Looking for a down move before it can head higher....
Higher open and expectation that price will fill the gap on the downside and into the 5-day 50% level @ 5236 (44 points down)
After 'gap' completion the rest of the day has a random outcome.....
Support 5-day 50% level:- the market can move higher from a lower Spiral point and back towards the highs again
Above 5334 and expectation that price is moving back towards the 5-day highs (Weekly 50%) 5450+
In conclusion:- It's going to depend on where the market opens, but I favour a rotation down into a lower R44 spiral point before any Upside moves will continue.
The Levels is the right hand chart should be used for 'day-traders'.
And keep in mind that yesterday was heavily influenced by the previous day's 5-day levels.
Therefore the levels from yesterday should also be used for any short-term resistance and support:- i.e. 44 points down will go close to matching yesterday's 5-day 50% level @ 5261
Today is the first day of a 2-day reversal UP....
Full report on later for Wednesday
I would expect some intra-day resistance around these levels before there could be any further UP move later in the day.
It was a bummer that both markets didn't 'test' Tuesday's support levels before making this reversal move.
These Weekly lows are viewed as 'support', and any support can result in a 2-day counter-trend move UP towards the Weekly 50% level before price reverses back down....
And that's going to depend on the Support levels on Tuesday.
Monday's view was to push down (confirmed with the break of support), which will normally result in a double-day down move into next day's 'support.'
The most probable levels of support on Tuesday as shown in the above charts.... UP and a upward rise will play out:- 2-day counter-trend move.
Breaks 'Support' and continuation down.
Expectation of a 2-day reversal back down towards the 3-day lows at the start of the new Week.
Monday was the first down day, and Tuesday is the 2nd day.....
Ideally I would have liked GBP to pop up into the Monday highs before reversing down, but the support level on GBP is the 5-day 50% levels, as shown in the above chart.
Because Tuesday is the 2nd day, a break of the 5-day 50% level and expectation is that price is come back down into the Weekly 50% level as part of the 2nd day reversal.
SPI completes the R44 and moving back into 'gap' closure from Monday....
Rest of the day has a random outcome after 'gap' closure:- rotate back down into an R44 spiral low and consolidate until the afternoon.....
Note: No more trades for me today, taking the day off to take my Mother out for lunch on her 77th Birthday.
Next report later this afternoon ...forex, US markets, and SPI update.
Whilst price is trading below 5165 expectation is that it's pushing down into the 5-day lows @ 5065-59....which is going close to match the Monthly dynamic lows.
Today:- The overall trend of the market is moving towards March Lows, and following the 5-day ranges lower, but as we saw yesterday, there are 'bursts' of price trends and then market moves into consolidation phases of 'price-range' rotation.
I don't have a morning 'set-up' to trade, but I will look for intra-day rotation using the above levels in the market within the 5-day range along with R44 spiral points.
Levels of interest are:- Weekly lows 5165
5-day range levels:- 5097, 5065
Note: above 5165 and the Weekly lows I still can't discount a rotation back towards the 5-day 50% level.....lower Weekly open and a 2-day rotation upwards before the trend resumes down.
Both the DOW and S&P are pushing down towards the March lows, this was confirmed with the break of Weekly lows on Friday and the continuation down.
The expectation is that price will push down into the Weekly lows again this week in both markets, but it might take another week before the next Weekly dynamic range matches the March lows.
At this stage the trend is down, but not every day will be down.....
Friday's trading pushed down into Support. That was the view because of the break of the Thursday's support (double day movement).
On Monday I don't have a view, other than trading on the side of the Support level.....
Below support and price is pushing down into the Weekly lows....
Above support (test and bounce) and price is moving into a 2-day reversal pattern upwards:- Lower weekly close followed by a lower weekly open with a probability pattern of a 2-day rotation back towards the 3-day highs before the next move down....
Note: The best trading set-up once again would be from a higher daily open and then trading the break of 'support' and following a double day movement once again towards the Weekly lows.
SPI pushed down after the R22 rejection into the R44 lows, and found support.
Same price action occuring and moving into a 44 point rotation upwards.
14-point rotations taking place above the R44 spiral point coming into the close of the trading day......
No more trades today, next trade and report tomorrow....