Index Futures, Forex Reports 14th Mar 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

DOW and S&P Index Futures


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

Note: Weekly BHP and Banking Reports Update

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  • S&P (e-mini) 13th March 09 recap

    "US markets moving into the bottom to top trading week:- Higher weekly close.

    Because of the breakout of Thursday, the trend guide should be based on Thursday's 5-day high

    With the potential to move towards Friday's high.

    Friday's high Random resistance"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Friday continued higher as part of the push upwards this week, and probably reach the March 50% level by next week.

    SPI Daily 13th March 2009 recap

    "2-day stall and 3rd day higher open

    Hard to go long on a spiral top, but any downside and the Weekly 50% level is viewed as support with a R42-44 spiral low.

    If it's not trading below 3295 it's not going down"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    A higher open and any trader would normally look to fade the open back into support.

    That was based on price moving back down into the Weekly 50% level @ 3271.

    But as pointed out in the morning report, if it's not below 3295 then it's not going down.

    That was based on a 5-day breakout pattern sending the SPI towards the 100% move @ 3345.

    If US markets continue higher on Friday, SPI should be around the highs on Monday.

    S&P (e-mini) 12th March 09 recap

    "Wednesday reversed down from the highs and into the 10-day 50% level, which was viewed as support.

    We have two plays on Thursday:-

    Set-up A:- rises up from support hits the Weekly 50% level once again and then reverses back down breaking support:- 2nd day.

    Set-up B:- rises up from support and continues towards Thursday’s highs:- not a 2nd day reversal."

    S&P Monthly and 5-day pattern

    US markets continued higher on Thursday following the bottom reversal pattern around the March lows.

    Thursday's support aligned nicely pushing towards Thursday's highs, resulting in a breakout and a probable continuation towards the March 50% level.

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  • SPI Daily 12th March 2009 recap

    "SPI Trading around the Weekly 50% level:- resistance @ 3271

    Yesterday was a breakout of the 3-day cycle (white line).

    More often than not price usually stalls for 2 days before heading higher from a lower open the next day :- 2-day stall & 3rd day up move.

    SET-UP A:- Weekly 50% level resistance pushes down into 3242 and then continues higher towards the 5-day highs:- 3293

    Break of 3238, and part of a 2-day stall pattern"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Thursday had two conflicting patterns:-

    1. A breakout of the 5-day highs normally goes chasing the 5-day highs in the next day.

    2. Weekly 50% level resistance @ 3271 and a break of the 3-day cycle normally stalls for 2 days.

    Price started with a move up into 3271 which provided the first set-up back down into 3242.

    If the market was going to continue towards 3293, then price should have remained above 3238-42.

    Once that failed the SPI moved into the 2-day 'stall' pattern.

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  • S&P (e-mini) 11th March 09 recap

    "Wednesday's highs are viewed as resistance, which could see the S&P reverse down from 729.

    Two probability patterns on Wednesday:- expectation of a Weekly 50% level resistance and reversal down, as part of a 1-2 day reversal.

    Any reversal down and the 10 day 50% level could support the market on Wednesday, but continue down Thursday, as part of the 2nd day reversal"

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    S&P Weekly & 5-day pattern

    S&P hits Wednesday's highs are reverses down into the 10-day 50% level support.

    There is an expectation that there is a 2nd down day on Thursday, as it goes looking for lower support levels before any potential continuation upwards.

    SPI Daily 11th March 2009 recap

    "SPI opening around the Weekly 50% level @ 3271

    Therefore the Weekly 50% level is viewed as resistance:- Today could end up a higher open range day between 3271 and the 5-day highs

    The SPI will open above the 5-day high, which is a breakout:- more often than not, the breakout day normally consolidates within a 44 point range, and either continues higher from the next day or overnight.

    Probability:- A slow day that consolidates around the highs all day and takes until late afternoon to move back down"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    As per the morning report:- slow range trading day between support and resistance...

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  • S&P (e-mini) 10th March 09 recap

    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P found support last week around 669, with the view that support should push prices higher this month...

    The first sign of confirming price action was the move back above 695 and a break of the 5-day 50% level & rally into the 5-day highs.

    There is a view of higher prices this month, but I would look at the market stalling around the Weekly 50% level.

    The ideall pattern would be to see a down move from a higher Daily open back into 695 over 1-2 days and then continue higher from a lower Daily open...

    SPI Daily 10th March 2009 recap

    "the trend today is simply going to be defined by 3131....

    Above and the 5-day 50% level is @ 3153, which is viewed as resistance.

    Above 3153 and price is moving towards 3186:- major resistance.

    3186 March lows..

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI pushes down early but then Hooks over 3131 sending the market back towards the 5-day 50% level @ 3153.

    The 5-day 50% level is always viewed as resistance, but once the R44 HOOKed over 3153 there was a bias to continue back towards 3186.

    3186 is a major resistance level based on the March lows, which aligned with the spiral tops and sellers hit the market into the close....

    S&P (e-mini) 9th March 09 recap

    "US markets trading below their Monthly lows( blue channel)....

    And even though US market found support on Friday, there is still more downside to go..."

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Price action tells the story....

    5-day 50% level along with the March lows resistance, pushing the market back down towards Friday's lows...

    Any further weakness would follow the Weekly timeframe towards the Weekly lows...

    SPI Daily 9th March 2009 recap

    "SPI trading above 3120 from Friday, therefore the bias is to complete the move up towards 3185…

    There is no probability to trade the open:-

    Around 3135 is the R44 low:- bullish pattern price rising UP from 3120 and the R44 @ 3135 can continue towards the 5-day 50% level @ 3184"

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    SPI weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI moved up higher on open but failed to reach the 5-day 50% level @ 3184:- resistance.

    SPI moved down during the day finding the R44 lows @ 3135.... finding buyers

    and supporting the market into another consolidating trading day.

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