Index, Forex, Equity & Commodity Reports 7th MAY 2011

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

US Dollar INDEX, AUD/USD, EUR/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/

OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, TLS, Banking Report Update





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S&P (e-mini ) 6th MAY 2011 Daily recap

Friday is about whether it continues towards a lower Friday close…


Or remains choppy between the monthly 50% level and the Weekly level @ 1347



S&P Weekly and Daily range…


Friday remains choppy and range bound between both levels in the upper timeframes.

Weekly report out later







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SPI Daily 6th MAY 2011 recap

whilst the market is below support levels, it is trying to move towards the MAY lows... and a lower Friday close

However, whilst above 4714, we have the same pattern as yesterday, which could see the Friday try and move up towards the breakout @ 4765... (84 points from the spiral lows)

SPI Weekly and daily range.


My view was that the Market would try and close lower, based on the breakout of support levels, and a continuation of the trend towards Friday's lows

 However, we have the same pattern as yesterday, a rise up from the Spiral filter low @ 4714,  above 4735, and  another retest of Wednesday's break of the MAY 50% (support)







Posted by

SPI Daily 5th MAY 2011 recap

R84 range has completed the Spiral low @ 4689 in sycom

therefore I'm not sure that the trend will continue lower on Thursday...but in fact swing back up towards the breakout once again @ 4765

Early trend guide  4706, & if above 4706 it's moving back towards 4737-39

Random resistance 4737-39...
Support 4687 (thursday's lows)



SPI Weekly (24 hour) and Daily range

As noted in yesterday’s afternoon recap….


"We have a bearish pattern, with today breaking support (4759-63)...and moving down 42 points, & with the expectation that the minimum move is 84 points towards the channels lows (sycom @ 4684-89)"

That completed precisely overnight, therefore today was either going to try & swing back towards 4765,

Or remain flat under 4737.

Early rise from 4706 stalled at 4737-39 , but then moved above, which then saw more afternoon buying as part of a reversal pattern from Sycom lows....

as it tries to move back towards Yesterday’s breakout @ 4765

Currently the trend remains below Support, even with today’s higher close…and because of this, there’s an expectation that the trend is moving down towards the MAY lows, which is a mirror of 2010.

However, it will now depend on whether US markets continue lower on Thursday, or rise upwards (Thursday and Friday), providing a ‘fake break’ pattern in the Aussie market.



Posted by

S&P (e-mini ) 4th MAY 2011 Daily

Daily range in the S&P doesn't favour an UP day, but a rejection pattern at the 5-day 50% level

If shorting, then treat the market as moving down 8.5 to 14 points

 

S&P Weekly and Daily range…

2-day reversal down into 1347 held support, but the pattern in the daily range favoured more weakness….

Resulting in a 14 point down move from the 8.5 highs @ 1355

Currently the market remains within the daily range…

However, whilst below 1347, I favour more weakness towards 1324.50 (critical Support)





Posted by

SPI Daily 4th MAY 2011 recap

Weekly lows @ 4763

Today's open is below the Support levels on the 3rd day, which is a bearish pattern, and is currently mirroring the same as in 2010.


SPI Weekly and Daily range…

We have a bearish pattern, with today breaking support (4759-63)...and moving down 42 points, & with the expectation that the minimum move is 84 points towards the channels lows (sycom)

If the market follows the same pattern as in 2010, then the trend bias is down towards the MAY lows, but it needs help with the S&P moving lower, as it remains above the Weekly level @ 1347 after the 2-day reversal.

We saw a similar pattern in the S&P 500 a couple of weeks ago, breaking support and a lower Daily close.

However, it ended up a fake break pattern, which then saw a rally towards the monthly highs in April.





Posted by

S&P (e-mini ) 3rd MAY 2011 Daily recap.

Resistance 1362-64

Random support @ 1354 (4.25 to 8.5 points)

S&P Weekly and Daily range…

Tuesday’s trading was based on a 2nd day reversal pattern to start the week, and whether the Weekly level @ 1347 would hold support, or break and continue lower

However, the first trade during globex hours was using intra-day support @ 1354, which resulted in a precise 4.25 point rise, but then a failure to move 8.5 points into resistance levels.

As we can see, the Weekly level has supported the current trend, and this could result in the next 3-days trying to move back towards the highs…..

Unless there’s further selling during globex hours







Posted by

SPI Daily 3rd MAY 2011 recap

Trend guide 4804

If below it’s retesting the support levels

Higher timeframe support @ 4765-73.

Above 4804 and it’s moving up towards 4844, which is seen as resistance.

SPI Weekly and Daily range

Below 4804 on the open saw early weakness down into support levels…

As noted in the Daily report @ 12:57pm….

there is still a lot of support around these levels @ 4765-73 that could see a late move upwards (after 2:50pm) Target 4804, with a potential swing towards 4844

14:50 buying came in, helped by the breakout above the previous bar high @ 4780…

However, the initial move towards 4804 failed to reach, resulting in an 'inside day'

Note:- As pointed out in yesterday’s recap….

We should know by Wednesday how valid these support levels are in the larger Primary and Secondary cycles... above 4828-40 by Wednesday should help validate support....


Currently we have support holding in the SPI, without the 2nd day break of support

Once again today's support will depend on whether the S&P holds its own support levels on Tuesday (1347)







Posted by

S&P (e-mini ) 2nd MAY 2011 Daily recap.

whenever the market rallies towards the weekly highs during Sunday's trading, it normally reverses back down towards the 5-day 50% level as a minimum target.

Resistance 1373.25

S&P Weekly and Daily range.

S&P reversedl down from resistance levels and towards the trailing target zones @ 1359 (14 points)

As noted in the weekly report…

Expectation that the market would retest this week’s levels @ 1343-47, to see whether the current upward trend in MAY remains stable



Posted by

SPI Daily 2nd MAY 2011 recap

Below the Weekly level (4828) and Monday is part of a move down to test the Double Weekly lows and the MAY 50% level.

Trend guide 4835



SPI Weekly and Daily range.

Early sell off on Monday has seen the trend move down into the lows, resulting in higher timeframe support coming into the market.


We should know by tomorrow or Wednesday how valid these support levels are in the larger Primary and Secondary cycles

If above 4828 by Wednesday it should help validate support....

Otherwise watch for a potential 2nd day 'break' (tomorrow) which was the same pattern as 2010.

The latter pattern will depend on how the S&P responds to the Weekly highs on Monday, as per Weekly report…

Or,

whether the news of Osama being killed pushes the S&P higher & towards the MAY highs @ 1383



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