Index, forex, stocks, Commodities 3rd August 2011 Weekly

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

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DOW and S&P Index Futures

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US Dollar INDEX, AUD/USD, EUR/USD

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OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

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Gold & Silver Weekly Reports

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Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, TLS, Banking Report Update

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S&P E-mini futures 5th August 2011 recap

the S&P is moving down into the Yearly 50% level :- major support @ 1169/73

Two resistance levels on Friday 1208.50, and 1222, in case the market rises upwards early

Ideal pattern would be for the market to move down into Friday’s lows and Major support levels and close higher.

S&P Weekly and Daily range.


Great volatility on Friday with a number of levels providing support and resistance zones for day traders to take 8.5 to 14 point ranges

Market shot up early as the job numbers came out better than expected, this saw the market nearly hit the intra-day resistance level @ 1222…

But once below 1208.50, the trend bias was down into the daily lows, which matched the larger Primary cycle support levels @ 1269/1273

Support levels provided an upswing off the lows and back into the resistance level @ 1208.50, using the 3rd Quarterly level, where it once again provided another 14 point resistance zone.

Weekly report out later.











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SPI Futures 5th August 2011 recap

Support 4074

Resistance 4131-37

SPI Weekly and Daily range.


Today’s BUY support @ 4074 only lasted a double R21 range, before it moved back down, closing on its lows on Friday.

4074 was an intra-day support level with the expectation it would rise back towards the Friday level @ 4131, matching the Primary BUY cycle lows @ 4137.

If that happened, then my view 4131-37 would form resistance on an intra-day basis, and probably dip lower overnight, as the S&P goes looking for it’s own support levels @ 1169-73. There is also a break and extend pattern in the Weekly cycles from 4321, and that can extend towards lower lows next week



This week’s top-to-bottom 5-day cycle has also broken the larger timeframe support levels @ 4137, and this could see further weakness in 2011.

Any further weakness in the SPI will be determined by how the S&P responds to it’s own larger timeframe support levels on Friday @ 1269-1273.



Weekly report tomorrow.








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S&P futures (e-mini) 4th August 2011 recap

For this week the resistance remains 1267-1272 (Weekly low)

Trend guide 1251 (monthly lows)

If below 1251 the trend bias in the S&P is down.


S&P Weekly and Daily cycles.


1251 was used as a trend guide, if above the expectation was that 1267/1272 would form resistance and drive prices lower.

However, the cash market opened below 1251, and this put pressure on the market to extend down towards the daily lows, and as part of a 5-day rejection pattern (top to bottom) towards the larger timeframe cycles.

This first target down is 1208, using the 3rd quarter levels, & The larger Primary timeframe reversal down is shown below
S&P Primary and Monthly cycles


The trend bias is following the Primary reversal from the highs down into the 50% level @ 1173, which is a pattern I’ve been waiting for to happen.

The Yearly 50% level is the critical support level, that would provide a bounce in the markets (next week)… helped by it trading above 1208.

if there's a bounce in the market (next Week) then it's likely to stall and fail around 1266 and the September 50% level, and continue down once again

Extremely bearish pattern if the S&P below the Primary 50% levels next week. (1270)


 



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SPI Futures 4th August 2011 recap

Resistance 4321 (Weekly lows) Support 4281 (monthly lows)

My view is that the market will remain between those levels in early trading. If below 4278 the trend bias is down into Thursday’s lows @ 4250, as part of Wednesday's break and extend pattern.


SPI Weekly and Daily range.The early price action played out precisely, with monthly support pushing the market back towards the Weekly lows @ 4321, along with the expectation that these lows would form resistance.

However, the continuation down towards 4250, wasn’t verified until the market started to trade below support levels @ 4278

And the current trend is moving down into the Primary support levels @ 4137/57







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S&P Futures (e-mini) 3rd august 2011 recap

Breakout of Tuesday lows should extend down into Wednesday's lows.


Wednesday lows  are seen as random support (8.5 to 14 points)


with a possible retest of 1267/1272 later in the Week


S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

S&P moved down into Wednesday’s lows, as part of Tuesday's break and extend pattern, and has risen upwards with a 14 point rise and more

As noted in the Daily report…

Expectation that price will continue to rise upwards from the daily lows, but because the market is below the Weekly lows, then my view is that it will form resistance during the current 5-day cycle








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SPI futures 3rd August 2011 recap

Support @ 4316/19

Resistance 4352

below 4316, then it's moving down into the August lows

SPI Weekly (24 hour range) and Daily range


As noted in the Weekly report, there was an expectation that the SPI was moving down towards this week's lows, as part of the break and extend pattern.

Today:- Early 21 point rise from support, but it then failed to continue towards the resistance level @ 4352 (Wednesday’s 5-day lows)

Once below the support, the bias was to follow the trend towards the August lows.

The SPI and the S&P are now trading around their August lows. This is the first time in 2011 that both markets are now in sync with the monthly BUY cycles.

However, as noted earlier this week, the Monthly rejection pattern during this current 5-day cycle has a bias to continue lower.

Therefore, after this week's 5-day cycle there is a possibility that next week swings back up towards the monthly 50% level, validated using lesser timeframes.

Any further weakness in the S&P and the trend bias is to continue towards 1209, whilst the SPI moves down into 4137/57





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S&P Futures (e-mini) 2nd August 2011 recap

Resistance :- 1285-1288

Random Support Tuesday’s lows (8.5 to 14 points)

With the possibility that the trend continues to move towards the August lows @ 1251

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

As noted in yesterday’s recap….

"trends that originate from the monthly 50% levels in the first week of the month can often continue to trend outward during the current 5-day cycle:- This could see the S&P down into its August lows @ 1251 as a minimum move"

Tuesday failed to hit resistance levels (intra-day), but has continued downward, as part of the monthly 50% level rejection pattern, completing the move into the August lows @ 1251

There is a breakout of Tuesday’s lows, therefore there’s an expectation that the trend will make lower lows on Wednesday....

And there is also a breakout of the Weekly lows @ 1271, therefore there is still the expectation that this week will be a top-to-bottom 5-day cycle.

any further weakness in the S&P is towards 1208 (3rd quarter channel lows),





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SPI Futures 2nd August 2011 recap

Trend guide 4409

Resistance 4442/45

Below 4409 and trend bias is down towards Tuesday’s lows @ 4374


SPI Weekly and Daily range.


As per Weekly report, whilst below the weekly levels @ 4438/42, there is an expectation that the trend is following a break and extend pattern down into this week’s lows.

Early support @ 4409, but it then failed to move beyond the weekly levels..

Once the market began trading below 4409, there is a bias to continue downward, but it failed to continue towards Tuesday's lows.










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S&P (e-mini) futures 1st August 2011 recap

With a 'gap' open from Friday's lows, and also the S&P already trading near the Monthly 50% level...

My view is down on open 8.5 to 14 points towards the channel lows

S&P Weekly and daily Range

S&P sell off on open, as the market was rejected down 14 points from a multiple of timeframe 50% levels (Daily and monthly)

However, the trend kept on going down, completing the break and extend pattern into this week’s lows @ 1271, before the S&P found some buying support.

Is the S&P going to rise upwards from these lows???

It could, but a couple things traders should consider…

#1) trends that originate from the monthly 50% levels in the first week of the month can often continue
 to trend outward during the current 5-day cycle:- top to bottom. Therefore the channels in the 5-day
range will be important

And more importantly…

#2) the failure to reach a 4 trillion spending cut (only 2.5) as part of the compromise on raising the debt ceiling hasn’t met Standard & Poor’s requirements.

This has the potential to see the US lose it’s AAA credit rating. If this is announced it will send markets lower, with a minimum move towards 1251, and the August lows.

Therefore the current downward trend can stabilise around these lowerlevels, but, if the S&P cuts the credit rating of the US, then markets will spike lower on the news.










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SPI Daily 1st August 2011 recap

If something is done over the weekend to resolve the debt ceiling, then Markets can open much higher, and quickly move back towards the August 50% level …


(Weekly report)

SPI Weekly and Daily

Finally something was done, and the SPI opened higher and proceeded to rally on the news, stalling at the previous breakout from last Thursday @ 4489.


Whilst the SPI is above the Weekly level @ 4442. the trend bias is to move towards the Weekly and monthly 50% levels @ 4519 to 4530.

Any further gains overnight will depend on the S&P’s higher open that aligns with the August 50% level, which could act as early resistance.










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