Index Futures, Forex Reports 2nd Aug 08

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

DOW and S&P Index Futures


Note: Weekly BHP and Banking Reports Update

SPI Trading 1st August 2008 Recap

Morning Report.....

"SPI is opening below the August balance point, and at this stage I'm leaning to SET-UP B playing out.

The critical level today is simply going to be 4933-4....if it moves down the expectation it's moving towards the red channel lows @ 4859.

Look for short-covering after 14:50 (44 points) from support"

SPI Daily and 5-day pattern

SPI played the 5-day pattern precisely on the way down into support.

Around support was choppy for about 1 hour, but after price settled, the short-covering came into the market.

Weekly Report Tomorrow.

S&P (e-mini) DOW 31st July 2008 Recap

No Probability pattern on Thursday: - 5 day highs resistance and 50% level support

Yesterday's report

S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

Thursday consolidating trading day between support and resistance.

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  • SPI Trading 31st July 2008 recap

    SPI Daily and 5-day pattern

    SPI closes out July right in the middle...

    Should know by tomorrow and early next week, which direction the SPI will be moving, whether it follows the A set-up and a POP UP towards 5251....

    or follow the down move into August lows...

    Day trading:- SPI simply follow the 5-day levels and Spiral point trading:- rotation and extension.

    S&P (e-mini) DOW 30th July 2008 July 2008 Recap

    "US markets have Weekly hook patterns on Tuesday, which favours higher prices.

    Often price will come down and test the Weekly 50% level to verify support and then gradually close higher"

    Yesterday's report

    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

    Wednesday continued higher based on Tuesday's 'Hook' pattern, and a rotation back towards the August 50% level by Friday.

    We can see the rise UP from the 5-day 50% level towards the highs.

    But my robust pattern on 'HOOK' days, is an early fade back to re-test the Weekly 50% level, and then continue higher, which didn't play out as precisely as I hoped for.

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  • SPI Trading 30th July 2008 Recap

    "SPI supported around July's lows @ 4836 , and moving back towards the August balance point on Friday.

    Today:- 5-day 50% levels resistance

    A higher open favours a down move, ideally to close the gap and complete 44 points down....

    It could remain in a tight 44 point range day below the 5-day 50% levels for most of the day :- which could only be 1 bar.

    Morning Premium Report

    SPI Daily and 5-day pattern

    16:05 Recap

    SPI opens higher and stalls at the 5-day 50% levels and pushing down.

    By 16:05 the SPI hasn't even completed it's single 44 point range for today... not yet anyway.

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  • DOW S&P Trading 29th July 2008 Recap

    The pattern I favour is a down move into the 5-day lows and support.

    If that plays out early on Tuesday then my view is a rotation back up into the Weekly 50% level, which might occur late in the day.

    Trade on the side of the blue channel:-

    Yesterday's report

    DOW Daily and 5-day pattern

    Yesterday I was looking for a push down into Support and then a swing into a higher Daily close on Tuesday....

    Trade on the side of the blue channel:- and Tuesday moved higher, closing higher.

    Tuesday's trading has formed a 'hook' daily pattern back over the Weekly 50% level.....

    SPI Trading 29th July 2008 recap

    "I'm not expecting a major counter-trend move UP like what occurred
    in March this Year, my view is support forming around 4836 and
    remaining range bound below 5100 until the end of July, and if there is
    going to be a 'pop' upwards into the monthly 50% level, then there is more
    of a chance that higher prices would occur from August.

    After a rotation into the Monthly 50% level, my view remains that the
    Aussie market is heading down into the Yearly lows @ 4538-82, which will
    be helped by Resource stocks namely BHP”

    Weekly Report 12th July 2008

    SPI Weekly

    I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that my view on the SPI would
    remain range bound between 5100 (June lows) and 4836 (July lows) for
    the rest of this month.

    And if there is going to be a ‘pop’ back up into the August 50% level
    it was going to begin from August, and then the next trend downwards
    to complete the 2008 lows.

    With two days to go before the end of the month, I’m struggling to see
    the market ‘poping’ up into August 50% level from next week, but
    I can see the market down around the August lows.

    I’ll be back into financials around those August lows once again looking
    for the next 10-15% short-term counter-moves.

    SPI Daily and 5-day pattern

    SPI following the Weekly and 5-day pattern as it moves lower, (thrust from 50% level outwards) and the usual 44 point rotations intra-day....

    I mentioned in the last Weekly report two set-ups, and if price is trading below 50% levels, then there is a good chance that SET-UP B is going to play out.

    DOW S&P 28th July 2008 Recap

    DOW Daily and 5-day pattern

    Same pattern as the Aussie market, breaking support and selling down lead by banks.

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  • SPI Trading 28th July 2008 Recap

    "Because it's still trading below the 5-day 50% level, then the bias is to move down on open....Therefore I want to be short-trading down.

    This morning at 7.26AM the ANZ bank announced write downs of $1.2 billion.

    After Friday and Nab write downs this may effect all the banks, which could end up dragging the market down.

    This could factor in the market opening lower and completing the R44 range down @ 4951, therefore traders should adjust to the market based on the above levels if this happens....

    Below 4962 and expectation price is moving down into the red channel @ 4904 and another 44 points"

    Morning Reports

    SPI Daily and 5-day pattern.

    Banks dragged the market lower today.

    SPI completed the R44 range below 4962 and continued down nearly hitting the 5-day lows.