Index Futures:- Weekly Reports 1st March 2008

Australian Index Weekly Report

US Index Weekly (DOW and S&P)


Please click Weekly reports to the right.......

DOW E-mini 29th Feb 2008 part 2

Expectation US markets would push further down on Friday into Support zones with the expectation that 'short-covering' would come into the market to swing it back towards the middle of the 5-day range.

A break of Support today, and any 'short-covering' is going to be limited, with the expectation the down-move is going to continue next week.....

Full Weekly Report Later.....

DOW E-mini 29th February 2008

Last trading day of the month and we have had a 2-day reversal in US markets.......

What's the chance of a 3rd day UP day with a higher close on Friday??????

I would have said much higher if Thursday didn't move down as far as it did, because the support levels have shifted much further down on Friday than what they were. (see previous US report)

Trading 'longs' off support was the set-up on Friday, but with the support levels pushed down, then a Friday similar to last week could occur, with late BUYing support in the last two hours of trading again.

Resistance levels above and support levels shown......

SPI Trading 29th February 08 part 4

14:55

The reversal set-up today @ 14:36 has occured in the opposite pattern that I would normally expect for any BUY rally to occur today.

Normally the Spiral low @ 14:36 would provide a robust entry for a rally into the close, but today it's moved into a Spiral top @ 14:36.

Even though there can still be short-covering in the market this afternoon, and the SPI could get a good rally into the close, the pattern isn't the right one.

In fact the past two days haven't provided the right patterns with the lack of rotation.....

Next trades on Monday.....

SPI Trading 29th February 08 part 3

13:19

Since the last post, price has come back up into 5553 (3-day lows) and has pushed back down further.

The breakout of the 3-day lows is a bearish pattern, and it was a valid resistance zone.

The only thing that favours a rise upwards this afternoon has been the 14:36 buying and from an R44 Spiral bottom, which could end up being down around 5480, another 44 points lower.

Normally the market would swing upwards into the close, and the past price action on previous occasions has been back towards the 5-day 50% level, and if that happens this afternoon I'd be very impressed. (5608-13)

Note: Market breaking the R44 spiral lows after 14:36 and price expectation is heading towards the 5-day lows....

FOREX GBP/USD 29th February 2008

GBP trading above the Weekly breakout, but it has stalled under December lows, and looking to consolidate on Friday between those two levels.


Thursday moved higher off support, and on Friday support should be used again.

I would have liked for the R110 pip high to have completed, and then use 1.9938 as a Risk for any reversal back down on Friday....

But at this stage there is no probability pattern:- it either consolidates above the Weekly breakout and heads higher into Friday..

Or it breaks support and moves back down towards the 3-day lows, like what has occured in the Australian Market today.

SPI Trading 29th February 08 part 2

11:35

SPI opened below 5608 and has pushed down into the 3-day lows @ 5553:- that was the price pattern today on open below 5608, however I didn't think price would fail below 5553....

Not a good sign to be trading below 5553 and the 3-day lows on Friday, however there is always the view of 14:36 buying and rotation back upwards into the close...

For me to trade shorts, which often provides a robust entry would have been a 22 point reversal UP and then trade down... once again there wasn't any 'short-setups' to trade down even under 5608.

The best entry would have been a 22 points rise back up into 5608 and then trade the move down, which often occurs, except the past two days.

.1 Entry L 5579 (22 point down move) looking for a fade back up into 5608, market moves up 11 points and then moves down stopped 5575 -5

2. Entry L 5562 (R44 spiral low) exit 5572 +10 stopped breakeven 62

3. Entry long 5554 stopped 5537 -7

4 Entry long 5539 partial exit 47 +6 stopped 5538 -1

5. Entry Long 5532 (R44 spiral low) Exit 48 +16

The r44 lows have been the levels where most buying has come into the market, most of my other trades have been using level in the market which has provided support but hasn't had the follow through....

At this stage of the day i'll sit it out until the afternoon.

SPI Trading 29th February 2008

Last day of the month and today's closing price sets up some important levels for March.

Yesterday's price action on the SPI and in the US markets has shown buyers aren't keen to BUY the markets around daily highs, and yesterday I mentioned the possibility of a reversal back towards the 3-day lows @ 5553, and we can't discount that happening today, especially with today's lower open.

Today's price action is dependant on the direction of the Weekly close, and how price is trading either side of the 5-day 50% level, and how price reacts to 14:36 buying.

We have seen Friday's 14:36 buying come into the market pushing price upwards, either towards the 5-day 50% level late in the day, or towards the 5-day highs.

Two Scenarios:- Support 5608

1. Lower open moves up 44 points consolidates and then moves higher from a lower Spiral point and 14:36 into the close:- higher Weekly close away from open, and can move higher towards the 5-day highs if US markets reverse off BUY support on Friday (US report later)

2. Pushes down into the 3-day lows, and again same buying price action with a reversal towards the 5-day 50% level from a lower Spiral point:- Weekly close in the middle of the 5-day range, which has occured the last three weeks.

DOW E-mini 28th February 2008 part 2

DOW and E-mini

Today's view was leaning towards a 2nd day stall-reversal pattern, it was something I was looking for to happen earlier this week, and in both markets it was a case of moving into support levels and then trading below them.

With two hours to go in both markets and trading above the 5-day 50% levels, there will probably be some short-covering coming into the market pushing the markets higher off their current lows

When looking a Friday's ranges, I would like to both markets to come down and test the support levels, which match the 3-day lows for a better 'long' set-up.

FOREX GBP/USD 28th Feb 08 part 2

GBP has followed the break of the Weekly timeframe after testing the 5-day 50% level on Thursday and has continued upwards moving into a double R110 pip range...

Friday's trading is going to be defined by the dynamic shift in the support line @ 1.9938, whether price continues upwards into Friday, or reverses back down into the Weekly breakout @ 1.9793

DOW E-mini 28th February 2008

US markets trading below higher timeframe resistance levels, as shown in the Weekly charts yesterday.

Because there hasn't been a 2-day stall in the Weekly trend this week after the change of cycle, there can still be a possibility of 1 more down day this week before finding support on Friday (next up day).....

DOW intra-day

Support shown above @ 12647.

However I'm still looking for the Range bar to complete down into 12600, before any up trend is going to play out....

Therefore it needs to bounce off 12600 and swing back above 12647, otherwise and break of 12600 on Thursday and it will be part of the 2nd day reversal and expectation that the move will be a 144 point range.

E-mini Intra-day

lower support @ 1369....

In conclusion:- There are two scenarios today:- a bullish weekly trend will have 1 down day and then continue higher into Friday.

Yesterday we had that 1 down day, and today will follow the above patterns using 'support'

2nd Secenario:- breaks intra-day support and has a down day with the movment back towards the 3-day low channels as targets and support. (1348)

This is part of the 2nd day reversal after the change of the 3-day cycle, similar pattern to what occured in the Australian market today.

SPI Trading 28th February 2008 part 5

15:45

SPI has come down tested the 3-day break @ 5624 and has bounced up into an R44 spiral top and consolidation into the end of the day.

I was looking to trade around 5606 and the previous 5-day lows, but ended up paying 5637 just before the 14:36 buying came in.

The reason for the trade was the expectation that the R44 was going to complete the range @ 5655.

Entry Long 5637 and exit 5651....

The entry 'short' spiral point that I was looking for all day occured late in the day...... (no trade)

SPI Trading 28th February 2008 part 4

13:15

SPI has rotated back into the 5-day 5% levels and has found support but with a lack of buyers....

Even around a robust level as 5539-44 we can't get a 22 point rise upwards, which favours more weakness towards 5605 and into 14:36.

5606 is the previous 5-day range:- any support should be verified along with 14:36...

Entry longs 5642 & 44 partial exit 5650 +8 stopped 5637.. -7....

Note:- today could easily be a down-trending day without any robust 44 point reversals today, as part of the rotation towards the 3-day lows.

SPI Trading 28th February 2008 part 3

11:45

The entire bullish set-up today was based on price rising up from 5707, this is the normal pattern in a strong trending Weekly timeframe.

Today that hasn't happened, and by looking at the Daily chart on the left we can see a 3-day consolidating pattern above the Weekly timeframe (support 5-day 50%), but also a large gap towards the 3-day lows.

Normally when markets breakout of the 3-day cycle they like to either come back and test the breakout or move into a 2-day reversal pattern which can go as far as the 3-day lows.

At this stage I don't know how the market will re-act this afternoon. Personally I would like to see a 44 point move up off these lows before seeing whether the market will swing down from an R44 high 5707-11, or rally upwards into the close.

I haven't traded short positions because I would need a spiral-top to trade down, and that nearly happend earlier when it hit a high of 5703.

Have been in longs @ 5673 for awhile :- partial exit 5683 (+10)

Running stops @ 5669 looking for a move upwards 5703 before heading down, but it still looks like it wants to go lower today.

At this stage buyers aren't keen on the market, but I don't have a 'short-setup' to trade the market down.

FOREX GBP/USD 28th February 2008

GBP: Weekly and Daily charts

Weekly range on GBP is hitting some resistance around these highs based on the December range breakout of the lows, and we can see the reversal 'daily' bar occuring on Wednesday.

That reversal bar was expected to happen, and if price is going to rise upwards on Thursday then the breakout of the Weekly .618 range should support the currency, otherwise it's rotating back down towards the Weekly 50% level and 3-day lows...

Wednesday's expectation that price would rise higher into the daily dynamic highs and then reverse back down into support.

Support has been confirmed, but I would like for price to re-test it on Thursday for a move back upwards 110 pips +

Break of support and the 5-day 50% level and price is rotating back down into the 1.9707

SPI Trading 28th February 2008 part 2

10:22

today's set-up was based on the market moving upwards from 5707 and heading back up towards yesterday's highs and beyond, as it follows the expectation of theWeekly trend.

Today's price action and move below 5707 and it could be heading back towards the 5-day 50% level, as part of the 2-day stall reversal after the change of the 3-day cycle

Stopped out on two occasions this morning using the above levels

Long 5710 5702 -7
Long 5698 partial exit 5710 +12 stopped 5693 -6

Double R44 low @ 5668 has found support and closed an intra-day gap from Tuesday.

On sidelines for the moment....

SPI Trading 28th February 2008

Expectation market is heading towards the March 50% level:- rising upwards from Quarterly support, above the Weekly 50% and a 3-day BUY cycle......



Yesterday played out precisely:- following the 5-day ranges with the highest probability pattern rising upwards from the R44 spiral bottom and the 5-day high @5707.

Today:- If the market is going to move higher, then the expectation is that 5707 is support and the R44 spiral bottom completion from yesterday @ 5715 should give traders an idea about how robust Thursday's trading is going to be, and where price could move UP towards, if it's trading above 5759.

Note:- Always respect the price action within the 5-day range, and if it's trading below 5707, because price will try and gravitate back towards the 50% levels.

However It's not part of today's set-up for a rotation back towards 5656

DOW E-mini 27th Feb 2008 part 2

E-mini

Bounced off support and moved higher, but there is alot of resistance around these upper levels when we look higher timeframes and Weekly charts.

With the breakout of the 3-day cycle range on Monday, I was looking for a 2-day consolidating pattern before any higher close on Friday could play out:- today is the first, and on Thursday will be the 2nd day using the same levels.

DOW intraday

Expectation that DOW would come down and test support. With under 2 hours to go before the session closes the expectation that price should come down and complete the R144 range and re-test the 5-day high breakout of 12600.

Full US report later.....

Forex GBP/USD 27th Feb 2008 part 2

GBP pushed up into the Wednesday highs and has stalled moving into a rotating pattern of 110 pips ranges.

At this stage GBP is trading above the breakout of yesterday's 5-day high and support, along with Thursday's 5-day 50% level to continue to trend upwards.

A move below support today and expectation price will move back towards 1.9724 to re-test the 3-day breakout

DOW E-mini 27th February 2008

DOW and E-mini Weekly charts

Rising up from Quarterly support and moving towards critical levels based on the 3-week cycles.

Just like the 3-day cycle, the 3-week cycles are important for the overall trend bias of the market. We can see the resistance zones back into December 2007 and failure.

If the US markets are well supported, then the expectation is that this Week should close above them, and then we would look for a rotation Up towards the April Highs.

A failure to close above those 3-week cycle on Friday and it is beginning to line up for further weakness at the start of April.

DOW and E-mini Daily charts.

US markets rallied on Tuesday, and moving into a multi-day rally towards the 3-week cycle highs.

As a bullish set-up I would have preferred to have seen a 2-day consolidation and then a 3rd day rally up allowing for a higher probability Friday close above those 3-week cycles, than have the start of the week rally upwards, because I still expect a 1-day down day within the Weekly timeframe.

DOW intra-day

Tuesday's expectation was a rise upwards into 12625 and then reverse back down into support. However the market continued upwards 144 points before stalling...

Therefore my expectation is that price is coming back down into support....

Support can be valid for a continuation of the UP Weekly trend, or it could be part of a 1-day reversal down into support.

E-mini intra-day

Use the above levels......

Resistance 5-day highs, which matches February 50% level...1395

Forex GBP/USD 27th Feb 2008

GBP has followed the rotation upwards from Quarterly lows and is moving towards March 50% level.

Ideally I was looking for 1 more consolidating day before the market moved higher:- 2-day stall 3rd day UP move using the 5-day 50% level as support.

Tuesday moved into a breakout of the 3-day high, and will probably go a test Wednesday's high...

Resistance:- Wednesday's high

Support:- Tuesday's 3-day breakout and 5-day 50% level @ 1.9724

SPI Trading 27th February 2008 part 3

13:08

SPI pushed upwards following the 5-day pattern, and now consolidating above 5707 and an R44 spiral low......

I haven't traded since this morning, just got back as I had to step out for a couple of hours. I wouldn't have traded the UP move, but if I was around I would have certainly have traded the R44 reversal back down, and be long now off the R44 spiral low and 5707 Risk..

Risk support 5707 upside 5759......

SPI Recap:- 17:00

Following the Weekly trend upwards, as it rising up from Quarterly lows.

Intra-day patterns heavily influenced by the 5-day ranges and R44 spiral points....

SPI Trading 27th February 2008 part 2

SPI 10.30

SPI opened much lower than expected, I was looking for a push up or an open around 6734 to short-trade the gap down into 5690, but it opened around support, which wasn't part of my set-up....

The market moved up 22 points and reversed back under 5707, which looks to me like it wants to move down 44 points before heading higher.....

short 1 lot entry 5705 exit 5692 +13 for a quick trade....

The open has thrown me out this morning

level of interest of going long would be around the R44 lows @ 5674 and moving upwards back above 5683.....

Simply judging today's market using the 5-day ranges.....

SPI Trading 27th February 2008

Expectation that the Australian market is rising upwards from Quarterly lows and swinging back towards the March 50% levels.

This is occuring in most global markets, along with Forex, and hopefully provide some good gains on banking stocks as they swing back towards April 50% levels next month.

Yesterday's expectation was that price would push down from early on Tuesday from 5685 and then head upwards towards 5707...

Today will open up around 5707 with the expectation any further gains will be towards 5759.

My levels of interest are 5707 5683 and 5759, all based on the 5-day dynamic ranges, as shown above.

I also subscribe to the view that a higher open today will try and fade the market down early into 5690 or 44 points down.

Two scenarios:- follows the above price action and then heads up into a higher close, as it moves back towards the monthly 50% level:- don't short trade above 5759

2. Moves back under 5685 and continues back into this Week's 50% level @ 5658

The 2nd scenario is still a possibility because of the change of the 3-day cycle yesterday, and with the expectation that the market is moving into a 2-day 'stall' after the change of cycle.

However I favour the first scenario, with my view of resistance around 5734 and down into 5690, after that I don't have a probability pattern other than trying to fade to open, and then trading the 2nd half of the day either way into the close.

Take my profits where I can, and keep stops tight....

DOW 26th February 2008 part 3

DOW has stalled at 12732, and with two hours to go until market closes today, my expectation this is a resistance zone, however I wouldn't expect a major reversal back down from these highs today, with the breakout of Tuesday's highs.

I would still think that price will come back down and re-test support and yesterday's breakout, probably once the new day begins......

FOREX GBP/USD 26th Feb 2008 part 2

GBP has continued higher on Tuesday and has moved into the 5-day highs using 110 pip ranges.

The expectation on global Index markets and forex this week, was a rotation upwards towards the March 50% level, ideally I wanted a 110 pip down move first and using the 5-day 50% level to trade upwards....

However GBP has continued upwards on Tuesday and is hitting resistance around today's highs, with expectation price is moving towards the Wednesday highs....

GBP/USD Weekly and Daily charts

DOW 26th February 2008 part 2

DOW moved higher on Tuesday towards 12625, expectation of resistance because of thechange of the 3-day cycle, but price has broken through and has continued higher into another R144 range towards the 5-day highs....

12727-32 expected resistance around today's highs.....

full report later....

DOW E-mini 26th February 2008

US markets have pushed upwards, breaking the 3-day highs and probably moving as high as the February 50% levels this week ( expected resistance until March)

When the market moves above the 3-day highs, there is an expectation of a 2-day 'stall-reversal' until the 3-day lows catch up with price. Those 3-day lows are all the way down to the bottom of last week's lows.

I've drawn two purple bars on the DOW daily chart, because I expect a 2-day 'stall', that can stall and consolidate around the highs using the 5-day 50% level as rotation points, or it can come down much further this week over 2-day's (back to the Weekly 50% level as first reference)

We can see both US markets have stalled at the Weekly .618 range and closed below, those upper levels are important RISK levels for Tuesday's trading.


I'm going to limit today's trading set-up to the DOW mini.

Monday close above Monday's dynamic highs, therefore my expectation is that price will push upwards into 12625-53 before reversing back down into support.

Support zone is more a reference zone for any down move on Tuesday and exit.

Support can be also use the trade longs, but it's a much higher risk because of price moving into a 2-day stall-reversal pattern.

Yesterday:- price action moved up into the highs from Thursday (expected resistance) and then came down and retested support level @ 12399 before moving higher into the close.

Therefore 12451 should be used as a reference for any exits.....

SPI Trading 26th Feb 08 part 4

14:50

SPI pushed down into a low of 5632 and bounced without completing the R44 range @ 5629

What I wanted to see was a low around 5624-29 and then bounce after 14:36....

Still on sidelines, and risk increases on longs after 14:50 if it comes down and test those levels....

Don't trade longs below 5624

The expectation was for the market to move down today and then rise up into the close:- 44 points minimum move upwards.

SPI Trading 26th Feb 08 part 3 Recap

12:13 Recap

SPI consolidating after being pushed down from the resistance highs this morning and now moving into a sideways pattern around the Weekly 50% level @ 5658...

Expectation still remains that I would like the SPI to come down and test 5624 before moving higher into the close....

Note: 5629 is a double R44 down bar, which aligns with support and a spiral low....

Don't trade longs below 5624

FOREX GBP/USD 26th Feb 2008

Expectation GBP is heading UP towards the March 50% level, however the first
part of the trading week is the view that price will stall for two days before heading higher into Friday, as long as price remains above the Weekly 50% level on the 3rd day.....

GBP consolidating above the 3-day high break, however I would still like price to come down from the R110 pip high @ 1.97250, move down 110 pips into the 5-day 50% level, and then move higher the following day.....

Lower Daily close followed by a higher move the next day.....

SPI Trading 26th February 2008 part 2

10:15...

SPI has pushed up into the resistance zone this morning with the expectation that price is moving back down into the 3-day high break @ 5624....

Weekly 50% level @ 5658 supporting the market today .....so far

entry short 5689.... partial exit 5674 +15

next exit @ 5659 + 30 10:18

ABOVE WEEKLY 50% even though expectating more weakness today

NEUTRAL POSITIONS

SPI Trading 26th February 2008

Expectation SPI is moving back towards the March 50% level, rising upwards from Quarterly low support.

Today the market will open higher, and expectation that price will come back down and re-test the 3-day highs @ 5624.......

The higher open today and I'm expecting that Monday's 5-day high @ 5683 and the previous Weekly 50% level @ 5685 will form a resistance zone and fade the 'gap' on open....

Two scenarios:- fades the gap and then reverses upwards from 5624 and moves towards Tuesday's highs @ 5707....

2. Fades the gap and then continues back towards the 5-day 50% level.....

In conclusion:- expectation that the market is rising higher this week, and if price is trading above 5624 by 14:30 it will probably follow the higher move into the close of the day...especially if price is trading above the current Weekly 50% level @ 5658.

Note: I'd be surprised to see the SPI come all the way back to the 5-day 50% level:- expectation 5624 is a valid support zone today, along with two resistance levels:- 5685 and 5707