Index Futures, Forex Reports 20th Dec 08

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/

Note: Weekly BHP and Banking Reports Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/







Posted by

S&P (e-mini) 19th December 08 recap

S&P Weekly and 5-day range

Flat trading day on the US markets on Friday, but I must admit I expected far more upside than what happened, especially with favourable news regarding the auto industry.

Weekly Report out now....



Posted by

SPI 19th December 2008 recap

"An expectation that price should come down into the lows @ 3507 to complete the R87 lows.

I still have the view that the SPI continues to be well supported around 3506-11.

Simply trade the levels:- below 3542 price is moving down.

Above 3542 and price is once again consolidating around the middle of the 5-day range and above 3590 after 3pm is Bullish"

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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Today played out precisely.

From the push down early on Friday into support and the swing back towards the 5-day 50% level.

And after 3pm more buying on the break of 3590.

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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 18th December 08 recap

    "If US markets are going to continue higher then they should be rising upwards from Yellow support towards Thursday's highs.

    Below Yellow support and next Support levels are the blue filters"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets trading in another 5-day consolidating pattern, and traders simply had to trade on the side of the Yellow trend line.




    Posted by

    SPI 18th December 2008 recap



    SPI Monthly and Weekly

    Thursday:- more consolidation and rotation back into the 5-day 50% level.

    Make no mistake about it the SPI will end up around those lower levels in 2009, and probably lower :- SET UP A

    However I’m still looking for the move upwards into the First Quarterly 50% level before any new down trend continues:- SET UP B


    This is simply based on price rotating back into the higher timeframe midpoints before the next trend continues lower in the new year.

    For every breakout price will normally come back and test the breakout in the next Timeframe and then continue with the trend. A perfect example was October breakout and then the rotation back into the November 50% level, and then Drive down into lower lows in November.

    The down trend in the 4th Quarter ceased once price moved back above the Weekly 50% level, and has moved in a tight 3-week sideways pattern, which eventually will breakout of.

    As mentioned before, any up-trend won’t occur until there is a breakout of the 3-week highs.

    Next Week gets interesting on the SPI as there is a divergence of the Weekly timeframes and a shift in resistance to below (brown).

    Resistance drops, therefore the downtrend can continue lower next week if trading below 3526, which is part of the bigger picture.

    But it also can be the spring board for the rotation upwards, which is what I’m looking to happen and complete the retest of the breakout and the rotaiton back into the higher timeframe central zones.


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    • Posted by

    DOW S&P 17th December 2008 recap

    "Weekly highs resistance (until broken)

    Whilst price is below Tuesday's highs, expectation of a pullback into Support...

    Above Tuesday's highs and price is following the 5-day pattern higher towards the Weekly highs"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Wednesday moves down into Support and then moved higher.

    Once the cash market closed, futures were sold down late in the trading day....




    Posted by

    SPI 17th December 2008 recap

    "US Fed cut, and in my opinion Tuesday's rally from the 5-day 50% level is the start of the reversal trend back towards the first Quarter 50% level in 2009 in US Markets.

    SPI :- In this case trade on the side of 3604"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Wednesday started well, with the UP move beginning from the 5-day 50% level and moving above 3604.

    But once price dropped back below 3604, the UP move was open to risk, and the same pattern of rotation into lower channels played out again:- More consolidation.

    Financials and CBA rights issue weighing down the market today.



    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 16th December 08 recap

    "Whilst the US markets are trading above their Weekly 50% levels the bias is to continue higher.

    The FED meets today which could cut rates and has the potential to put a rocket up the markets.

    There is enough outside influences to push the markets upwards today if things go favourably.

    Yesterday's view was:- below support and price was moving back down into the Weekly 50% level.

    Today:- above the 5-day 50% level and US market moving towards Tuesday's highs.

    Prefer to trade on the long Side"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Tuesday rallies from the 5-day 50% level and moves to Tuesday's highs.

    In my opinion US markets should continue to move upwards tomorrow and complete the move into the Weekly highs.

    If there is a Friday close above those Weekly highs, then the price action explained in the Weekly report should continue higher as part of the rotation towards next Quarter's 50% level




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    • Posted by

    SPI 16th December 2008 recap

    "The trend guide is simply defined by 3587.

    Depending on where the market opens today keep in mind that the last R44 bar has to complete to move into Tuesday's trading @ 3572

    Above 3587 I'm bullish, below 3573 and limit trading longs"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Another consolidating trading day with an afternoon reversal back towards the midpoints late in the day.

    Once the Last 44 point range closed @ 3472 the bias was to push down.

    Once back above 3535 in afternoon trading, the bias was to swing back into 3573 and stall.


    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) 15th December 08 recap

    "Whilst price is above the Weekly 50% level there is an expctation that price is moving towards the Weekly highs once again......

    Above yellow support and price could move as high as the 5-day highs on Monday:- random resistance.

    Below the Yellow support and US markets are pushing back down into the Weekly 50% levels..."

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Monday's trading was simply trading on the side of the 5-day filter (Yellow).

    Resulting in Monday pushing down into the Weekly 50% level once again found buying support.

    FED meets on Tuesday, and with any cut in rates should hopefully get US markets moving higher and towards the December 50% levels.



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    • Posted by

    SPI 15th December 2008 recap

    "I have an expectation that the Aussie market is moving up towards the Monthly 50%levels, as long as price is above the Weekly 50% level.

    However in the short-term my view is price is going to act the same as it has acted over the past 3-weeks :- a higher open which normally closes lower:- Resistance 3666"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    “Today its completed the R87 highs. There is still the potential of a reversal back down into the support levels,

    I favour a continuation back down, which should complete the R87 points from today's highs….” 12 :10pm Premium Report

    Rally on open today moving up 87 points.

    Once back below 3666 my expectation that the market was going to rotate back down into support and complete the rotation into the intra-day support levels.


    Note:- trend guide Weekly 50% level.


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