Index Futures & Stock Reports 25 July 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

DOW and S&P Index Futures


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

S&P (e-mini ) 24th July 09 recap

"July highs reached @ 974, based on the 3rd quarter Thrust pattern.

At this stage any reversal down is towards the Weekly 50% level.

However, Thursday has a 5-day breakout, which normally favours a higher move into Friday’s highs"

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

US markets continued upwards on Friday because of the 5-day breakout from Thursday, resulting in a Weekly close above July highs.

There is a Quarterly Thrust Pattern that is pushing the Market higher, and because of this pattern price can continue to follow the Weekly ranges and push upwards next week.

Any trend reversals in the market often occur at the start of the new trading week, A higher weekly open that sells down towards Support, in this case the Weekly 50% level.

Therefore next week becomes critical on the direction of the market, even though I still think markets are going higher in the 3rd quarter.

It will depend on how price responds to a higher Weekly open and trading around the 5-day highs, which is when most trend reversals occur.

The minimium pullback based on this pattern is a 2-day reversal, but it's how the 2-day reversal moves that will make a difference.

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  • SPI Daily 24th July 2009 recap

    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    July highs reached and there are a number of 'gaps' that could be closed on the downside.

    Today's higher open and 'sell' down closed yesterday's gap.

    We have seen the previous 3 months reverse down towards the Weekly 50% levels, and we can see where this level is currently @ 3947.

    If the Market is going to move down then the SPI should open below 4067 next week and break the 5-day 50% level in early trading:- higher Weekly open and Sell down into the Weekly 50% level and lower Weekly close.

    However, there is a 5-day breakout pattern, which is now currently supporting the market @ 4065, along with the potential to move towards Monday's 5-day highs if US move upwards.

    As posted below... S&P has hit the July highs and stalled, but Thursday has closed above the 5-day highs, which often can see a move upwards on Friday.

    At this stage, I don't have an bias of which way the market will go, other than knowing that on the previous 3 occassions that price reversed down( April, MAY and June) price wasn't trading above the 5-day highs.

    Weekly report out tomorrow

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  • S&P (e-mini ) & SPI 23rd July 09 recap

    S&P Weekly and SPI weekly

    Thrust patterns in the 3rd Quarter have seen markets rally into their July highs without any short-term pullbacks.

    S&P 500 974
    SPI 4120

    Precise tops in both markets, along with a 'Stalling pattern' around a higher Weekly close and July's highs, with next week's open the trend guide on any short term reversal pattern

    Currently there are 5-day breakouts in both markets on Thursday, so it's a bit early to tell whether Friday will reverse down or Friday closes near those highs.

    There is still a view of higher prices in the 3rd Quarter, and July's highs will dynamically move upwards in August.

    We are due for a short-term pullback into the Weekly 50% levels, but I
    have seen 'Thrust' patterns before and they are what they are:-
    Trending patterns.

    Dilernia Principles:- all trends originate from 50% levels and extend outward.

    All trends end around support or resistance and rotate inward

    Currently there is a Primary Trend that's rotating inward:- 1037 & 4400

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  • SPI Daily 23rd July 2009 recap

    SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern

    Resistance 4067 along with the 5-day highs @ 4067

    Except Price won't go up and test the 5-day highs, and we are left with trading ranges that can turn off any day-trader because of the lack of volatility.

    Should be an intersting day tomorrow being Friday...

    Every monthly high reversed down from the 5-day highs at the start of the new Week...

    Tomorrow is the last trading day of the Week.

    DOW Futures 22nd July 2009 recap

    DOW Weekly and Monthly

    US markets are trading around their Weekly and monthly highs, but not dropping below support levels intra-day.

    There is a Thrust pattern in the 3rd Quarter trying to send markets higher, but after 9 days of not testing any 50% levels, I would like to think that eventually price would move into a 'stall' pattern.

    That would be towards the 5-day lows.

    However, Friday closes above these upper levels, there is a good chance markets will continue higher.

    SPI Daily 22nd July 2009 recap

    "SPI hit the July highs @ 4066 using the Weekly bar chart and stalled.

    Resistance 4058

    Random support 4014

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI Trading around July highs @ 4067. (high 4066)

    These Monthly highs have stalled the market over the past 3 months
    and could do the same.

    That will mostly likely occur with a 5-day high rejection pattern and price trading below the 5-day 50% level.

    That 5-day 50% level jumps up tomorrow @ 4013..

    Each monthly high was confirmed by a matching 5-day high, and at
    this stage there hasn't be a test of the 5-day highs this week.

    Current 5-day highs @ 4067, and matching the Monthly tops

    However, 3rd Quarter Thrust patterns can breakout and continue to move higher.

    If price is trading above 4067 tomorrow it will also be above the
    5-day high tomorrow, which normally leads to a breakout and
    continuation upwards.

    What do we also notice above the previous reversals down from the
    Monthly highs, and even the March Lows...

    They all started from higher Weekly opens (or lower Weekly open in March) and at this stage that's not the case.

    A number of critical patterns are starting to line up, which should give
    traders including myself an idea about the direction of the market.

    Pullback or continuation of the trend UPwards...

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  • S&P (e-mini ) 21st July 09 recap

    "This weeks view was to continue higher on Monday then continue higher on Tuesday.

    I also mentioned that Tuesday's 5-day highs will be the first probability pattern that will finally reverse US markets back into their 5-day 50% levels.

    It is not guaranteed this will happen, but I'm simply using previous probability patterns to model a future scenario.

    Yellow Support levels are the trend guides on Tuesday"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    This week's trading has played out precisely, except Tuesday didn't close down near the 5-day 50% level instead bouncing up from support once again.

    Normally this 2-day extension on Tuesday would send the market into a lower Daily close....

    However, the Thrust pattern from the July 50% levels keeps pushing the market higher without a retest of the 5-day 50% levels.

    Wednesday will be the 8th day without a retest.

    Wednesday's will be hitting July's highs, but As pointed out previously a Quarterly 'Thrust pattern can breakout of the Monthly range and continue to trend.

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  • SPI Daily 21st July 2009 recap

    "5-day highs @ 4077-87 resistance.

    Trend guide @ 4046"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Each of the reversals down in April, MAY, & June reversed down from the Monthly highs, but on each occasion they were matched by price hitting the 5-day highs on the same day.

    If this is going to follow a similar pattern, then there was an expectation that price would push up into the 5-day highs @ 4077 and then begin a reversal pattern down towards the 5-day 50% level.

    My trend guide was to trade longs above 4046, and then switch into shorts.

    I also mentioned in yesterday's report that I'm expecting a higher move on Monday and Tuesday, and then looking for a reversal back down from Tuesday's 5-day highs.

    Instead the SPI opened lower and moved up into 4046, which then became a spiral filter 'top' and it ended up a random pattern (consolidation).

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  • S&P (e-mini ) 20th July 09 recap

    "US markets heading higher towards the Weekly highs

    Price looks to be pushing up on Monday into the 5-day highs"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P continues higher on Monday following the larger trend towards the Weekly and July highs.

    As mentioned in Today's Premium Report....

    "I’ve seen these patterns before, when Monday pushes higher and then continues higher on Tuesday. And once price hits the 5-day highs on Tuesday then there is a greater probability that price will reverse all the way back into the 5-day 50% levels"

    Therefore I'm looking for another push upwards on Tuesday, which may align with the Weekly 'highs', and finally around those highs might provide the first rotation back into the 5-day 50% level in 7 days.

    If or when that happens, I still have a view of higher prices in July.

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  • SPI Daily 20th July 2009 recap

    "SPI is heading higher in July.

    Trend guide:- trade longs above 3979 UP.

    Random resistance 4021"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Last Friday was rising up from 3965 so there was a bias to follow the 5-day pattern higher today, with a medium term view of heading higher in July.

    Normally we would look for a reversal downward because of the higher weekly open, along with the expectation that price would reverse down into support and then continue higher into a higher Weekly close by this Friday.

    But because last Friday wasn't reversing down from the 5-day highs, Monday foten continues higher and follows the 5-day pattern range upwards based on the overall trend of the 'Thrust pattern'

    Today there was a bias to move upwards, but around 4021 was a similar pattern as last Friday (3965) where price consolidates around the value area.