Weekly Index Reports for Global Markets (January 26th 2008)

Please click Weekly reports to the right....


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DOW E-mini 25th January 2008 part 2

US markets are moving into the 2nd day of the stall and pushing back down towards the middle of the Weekly range...

Expectation that whilst price is trading below January lows, Markets will be hitting resistance levels and consolidating until the end of the trading month...

Full Weekly Report later...

DOW E-mini 25th January 2008

DOW:-

US Markets are trading around their highs but still under important levels on Friday…

There is still a large gap towards the 3-day lows, and there is still an expectation that Friday and easily have a down day…because of the change of the 3-day cycle.

I classify yesterday as a ‘stalling’ with most of the of the day spending below the Resistance zone of 12401 before a late move upwards towards the Daily highs…

If the markets are going to continue higher on Friday, they will need to break the channels highs:- That won’t occur until the break out of 12578… expectation that the DOW will move towards January 50% level and as high @ 12812…

Any reversal down would be towards the 5-day 50% level…(resistance 12401)

E-minis

Exact same expectation:- price is trading around the 3-day cycle highs 1360 (resistance)

Any rotation down would be towards the 5-day 50% level…

Breakout above 1377 and expectation price is moving toward 1397+

Whenever the channels come together there is a higher probability of a breakout, but it needs to be verified first by price trading outside the channel….

Full Weekly report tomorrow:-

If the market moves down into a ‘blow-off’ bottom in this quarter then I expect a massive counter-trend move upwards back towards the 3-month highs before the next major sell-off down in the 3rd Quarter.......... (US Weekly report 19th January)

SPI Trading 25th January 2008 part 4

14:28

Covered last @ 5740

Analysis:- Failure at the 3-day highs after such a big move, price can continue lower into the close.

Two possibilites coming into the last 100 mins of trading :- A swing upwards from an R44 low (2.50pm) and heads upwards closing above the 3-day highs. (expectation of a down move next week after change of cycle)

Or it can move down into the close back towards 5715, and even close the gap @ 5580 either late or overnight if US markets move down...

Blow-off top @ 5771

I'll let the market play out this afternoon, but whatever it does it won't surpise me either way....

SPI Trading 25th January 2008 part 3

13.40

SPI has moved into a blow off top @ 5771…..

Expectation that there would be some resistance around these highs based on the 3-day cycle….

A bullish market will continue higher into the close, closing above 5771.. that might come from an R44 reversal (Spiral bottom) which we haven’t had one today or there might not be any R44 reversal today…

This upper level is also a Sellers zone, so it won’t surprise me either to see selling into the close…


Entry 5771 (R11 Reversal) Partial exit 5754….

Looking for an R44 downmove and exit for the day...

Any up swing and the R11 Trio is resistance @ 5774 (don't short trade above this level in the 2nd half of the day.... (higher close)

FOREX GBP/USD 25th January 2008

GBP:- Expectation that price is swinging from the January lows towards February 50% level

First confirmation was yesterday's trading Set-up (5-day 50% level and breakout of 3-day high)

Expectation of Thursday breakout would move towards Friday's highs.

However, when I look at the forward Weekly timeframe there are 'DROPS', this often suggusts that the Friday can close down...

If that is the case then resistance on Friday is 1.97920 - (Friday's highs @ 1.8540)

And push lower on Friday would be back towards the Thursday breakout....

A DOWN day on a 'DROP' has a random length:-

It can move back into the Thursday breakout and stall before heading higher next Week

It can move down From Fridays highs back towards the 5-day 50% level or more (expected lower close), before heading higher next week...

Don't short trade above Friday's Resistance..

SPI Trading 25th January 2008 part 3

US Fed cut and this should stabilise global markets, and hopefully begin a gradual rise back towards the Yearly 50% levels over the coming weeks……

For any UP Trend reversal to take place, the first stage is the move above the 5-day 50% level,

The first baby step in any reversal is the 5-day 50% level (5435)

Any further moves upwards will be back towards the 3-day highs and previous 5-day 50% level @ 5715...that will happen if US markets continue upwards on Wednesday....

(Wednesday SPI Report 23rd Jan 8:30am)

Expectation that price will move to 5715 today

and a move towards blow-off top @ 5771 (today’s morning report 8:30am)

12:00 pm

Today's price action was not unexpected, the only thing it didn't allow myself any set-up to trade longs upwards into these highs.

I knew once above 6541 and the Dilernia Pivot trading shorts was open to Risk......

SPI Trading 25th January 2008 part 2

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Expectation market heading higher today towards 5715+

Higher open and expectation that price would come down first before it goes up…

Expectation that any down move would be back into the previous day’s highs @ 5580 before any UP trend would develop…

Dilernia pivot @ 5641 and Spiral top high

Bullish price action will find support and rally higher into close towards 5715

10:30

1. ‘Short’ Entry 5636…. Looking for 44 points down

Stopped 5639

2. Short Entry 5643

Stopped 5649

Market moves up 44 points @ 5667 next Spiral top

Higher risk ‘shorts’ as expectation heading towards 5715+

3. Short Entry 5664

Stopped 5669


I know where the market is trying to move towards, but today it’s not playing out the way I wanted it to….

This move upwards towards 5715+ is occurring much faster and early in the day for my liking, a more robust move would have moved down into the gap and then rallied higher towards the close.

When it’s heading towards the highs early, there often can be selling in the afternoon

SPI Trading 25th January 2008

SPI looking to move upwards towards the 3-day highs and the previous 5-day 50% level @ 5715.

This is also the Yearly 50% level @ 5716, so there is going to be some resistance around these levels if it gets that high today....

Price is opening higher today, and it's beginning to move away from support zones.... therefore we need to use the previous day's high and any R44 spiral point low to trade upwards....

Yesterday I was shorting R44 spiral tops:- I'll be doing the same today, because I think it has to move down into an R44 low before heading higher, but after the first sell and price is rising upwards from an R44 low or Yesterday's highs, I won't be shorting any R44 tops (above Dilernia Pivot) because I think there is going to be a late move upwards into the 5700+

Levels of Interest:-

Dilernia Pivots 5641 and 5580

Even though I have hypothesize a higher close today, there is no guarantee this will play out and the market could end up back down into the Weekly lows @ 5525.... (5-day 50%)

No Short trading above 5641
No long trading below 5580 (R44 spiral low)

Expected up move towards 5715:- a blow off top could end up as high as the 3-day highs @ 5771

FOREX GBP/USD 24th January 2008 part 3

GBP:- Continued breakout of the 3-day highs and moving towards Friday's highs...

Bouncing off January lows and breaking above the 3-day cycle and Weekly 50% level, and expectation that the sterling is rotating back towards February 50% levels.....

FOREX GBP/USD 24th January 2008 part 2

GBP:- choppy early around the 5-day 50% level before heading higher towards the Thursday channel highs...

Rising upwards from a 90 pip spiral low

These highs can become resistance today :- High Risk to be trading 'shorts' above 1.96690 as expectation price will move towards Weekly 50% level, and Friday's highs the next day.....

DOW E-MINI Report 24th January 2008

DOW:-

US markets have rallied, and the DOW has broken the 3-day highs, this is the 2nd stage of bottom confirmation, however the DOW is still trading below the January lows and the Weekly 50% level...

The Yearly 50% level is 12374.... (2nd stage of the bear market)

Even though there is a breakout of the 3-day highs, price is still trading inside the Daily channels, and trading below important levels, and whenever the market breaks the 3-day highs, there is an expectation of a 2-day reversal back down before heading higher next week...

I'd be very surprise to see the DOW move upwards without stalling for 2-days before heading higher on the 3rd day.

Levels of interest are 12401 (previous Weekly lows)

And Daily channel highs:- Resistance (don't short trade above those channel highs)

E-MINI

The ES hasn't broken the 3-day high but the same expectation as the DOW.....

Resistance Daily channel highs...

Note: Yearly 50% level 1374 (2nd stage of bear market)

5-day 50% level support...

We can see the coming together of the Daily channels tomorrow, when the daily channels converge together there is more chance of a breakout occurring, therefore I favour price hitting resistance levels and consolidating, rather than a breakout of the Daily channels on Thursday.

SPI Trading 24th January 2008 Part 9

16:29

Market moved into another R44 Spiral top @ 5572 near the end of the day and repeat the process........

SPI Trading 24th January 2008 Part 8

15:52

Moving down from spiral top @ 5448

Entry 5448

partial exit 5533 next exit 5510

It's either going to swing upwards from an R22 low and take out my stop (breakeven entry)

Or move down into an R44 low by the close....

SPI Trading 24th January 2008 Part 7

15:28

SPI supported at the 5-day 50% level and moving higher into the close....

Risk high @ 5548 (spiral top)

Haven't traded since this morning...

There is still a large gap to the 3-day highs @ 5771, which is a possibility tomorrow depending on US markets on Thursday....

FOREX GBP/USD 24th January 2008

GBP:- expectation that this week would consolidate until moving higher next week using the Weekly 50% level as a Trend Guide..

Price action is in a 3-day Sell cycle, and for any new trend to begin these 3-day highs needs to break higher...

Market is trading around the 5-day 50% level (choppy)

Looking at price action and the past 3-day of trading, the 5-day 50% level is an area of interest because of the head and should pattern formation :- below and its heading down...

However, a bounce off the 5-day 50% level on Thursday and I'd look for a move towards the Thursday highs and and maybe a follow through (breakout)...it would need to remain above yesterday's 5-day 50% level....

1.95405 Risk

Previous Week and consolidation moved in 120 pip ranges. This week we can see the same, and with the higher spiral point today I would favour price rotating down before heading higher from a lower Spiral Point..

However:- A break above the Spiral high @ 1.9592 and I wouldn't short the GBP as it would look to follow the move back towards Thursday's highs, as it rises upwards from the 5-day 50% level...

SPI Trading 24th January 2008 Part 6

11:10

Entry 5489

Partial exit 5498 & 5516 (neutral positions)

bounce off the 5-day 50% level and exit on R44 highs..

Market is now trading between the 5-day 50% level 5484 and the Weekly lows @5525...

Market will pop either way.....

On sidelines until this afternoon..

SPI Trading 24th January 2008 Part 5

10:55

SPI has rallied 44 points and reversed back down into the 5-day 50% level @ 5484

A bullish market will be supported around these lows and continue higher into the close back towards 5525 (Minimum 44 point up swing)

I personally won't go looking to short-trade the top again

A consolidating pattern outside the Weekly lows can still swing upwards but stall and rotate back down from an R44 top and move into a sideways pattern for rest of the day...

A weaker day will break 5476 (R44 low) and continue down into the previous 5-day 50% level..... which I won't be shorting and/or trading longs below..


Dont go long below 5484 and don't short trade 5525 again..

SPI Trading 24th January 2008 Part 2-4

10:12am

Market opened much higher than expected pushing back towards the 3-day highs @ 5529… (resistance 3-day cycle)

Price moved upwards 43 points… But such a higher open it would have to have some stalling price action before any continued rise upwards, especially from an R44 spiral bottom…

1. Entry 5527 Stopped @ 5530

2 . Re-entry 5539 Added 5534

Partial Exit 5521 (stopped trailing 5538)


Still looking for a 44 point down move before the up trend might continue

44 points down and the 5-day 50% level @ 5484 is the level of interest….

10:27

Market continued upwards completing the R44 spiral top, but still trading above the breakout of the 3-day highs…

I was still shorting because I didn’t think the market would continue higher without stalling and reversing down 44 points..

3. re-entry Shorts 5545 (R11 reversal and R44 spiral top @ 5546)

Partial Exit 5531

10:34

Exit last 5516 (R44 Reversal)

Expectation that price is moving down towards the 5-day 50% level…

No idea how the rest of the day will unfold...

Whilst trading below 5525 the market is part of the consolidation pattern outside the Weekly lows....

A bullish market will see the 5-day 50% level hold and move upwards into the close...

Don't short trade around 5529 if there is a late move back up....

SPI Trading 24th January 2008

8:20am

US markets rallied off the lows on Wednesday and looking to move into a 2nd stage of confirming a bottom with the move back towards the 3-day highs after crossing over the 5-day 50% level.

The SPI will opening outside the Weekly lows @ 5525, and the 2nd stage of the Australian market finding a recent bottom will be a break of the 3-day highs @ 5529..

Keep in mind that price in global markets are still trading below their January lows (expected Resistance until February)

Today the SPI will open below the 5-day 50% level 5484 :- therefore the trend remains down.

It will also open at a higher spiral point, which favours 'short-trading' before any UP move...

In conclusion:- Market will try and rise higher today, above the 5-day 50% level shorting is open to Risk, as it will try and move back towards 5525 and the 3-day highs...

Ideally I would like to see a 44 point down move from a higher open, and if there is going to be any UP move, the most logical place would be from an R44 Spiral low and breaking the highs...

A 44- point down move doesn't guarantee that any UP move will occur today, but it's still a pattern I'll be using today.

Levels I'm interested is :-

Today's 5-day 50% level @ 5484
Yesterday's 5-day 50% level @ 5436
Previous 5-day low 5413

DOW E-mini Trading 23rd January part 2

US markets going through a consolidating pattern around recent lows.....

Expectation that this price action will continue into the end of the Week before any new short-term UP trend to develop from next Week....

Full report later....

DOW E-mini trading 23rd January 2008

Same Expectation on US markets, as the SPI...... greater expectation on any new UP trend developing from next Week; if or when price is trading above next week's 50% level...

At this stage view the market as a consolidating pattern for the next 3-days...

The difference between the SPI and US markets are the Weekly lows. In the Australian market this was resistance today pushing the markets down, as part of the consolidating pattern.

Whereas in the US:- futures are currently inside the channels...but that might change by the time US markets open in 8 hours time...

Intra-day is simply going to be defined by the 5-day 50% level.... trading around the 5-day 50% level can be choppy....

If markets are trading below the Weekly lows on open, then price could easily move back towards Daily channel lows once again...

Resistance 3-day high channels (blue).... don't short-trade above them on Wednesday...

Note:Expectation of a blow off bottom on the Weekly charts, but it would need to break above the 3-day highs and move back above the Weekly 50% level to verify any bottom.

This is more likely to happen next week than this week....

SPI Trading 23rd January 2008 part 5

15:25

Today’s Price action was ideal for my style of trading: - regressive swing trading using Market Trends, Support & Resistance along with R44 spiral points….

As you notice I can often miss those 100-point moves in 1 trading day, but those types of days don’t happen that often, I focus on trading 44 point moves within market Trends….

If the market is trending and continues to move in 1 direction then it’s extremely hard to get back into trends….

When markets rotate like they did today, then it’s much easier to hop back into TRENDS using Spiral points, as long as there is an understanding of the overall Trend of the market….

I wasn’t going to trade again, but two more opportunities arose during today, and both around the R44 Spiral tops….

The first one I waited for until a break of the R11 Trio because of price trading above the 5-day 50% level, but the 2nd aligned perfectly with an R44 Spiral top and also the 5-day lows @ 5413….

What was support earlier, became resistance afterwards…(5-day lows 5413)

I wasn’t going to trade any R44 Spiral bottoms whilst price was under 5413…

Note: - If markets move into a consolidation phase over the coming Weeks, I expect the same kind of price action, which will suit this style of trading.

What the Dilernia Model is for Trend Trading, Spiral points are for Day trading

SPI Trading 23rd January 2008 part 4

11:55

SPI has sold off from resistance and moved back down into the previous 5-day low @ 5413 and Support....

Expectated price action is to consolidate outside the Weekly lows until next week where we look for a move above the Weekly 50% level to begin the UP trend....

We can see the R44 hook reversal under the Dilernia Pivot @ 5385 heading back down another 44 points and lower.....

I exitted my shorts @ 5462 because of my systems.

Price moved up into a high and matching system, and what I should have done was move back into Shorts as it moved back under the Dilernia Pivot (5485), because the expectation was the R44 would continue back down 44 points and into the 5-day 50% level...

That trade was an ideal trade because of market dynamics trading as prices moves between 5-day levels within the Weekly timeframe, and the movement of 44 point ranges...

Price continued down into 5413 and Support...

Entry longs @ 5413

partial exit 5425 and 5447

no more trading until tomorrow... when things settle down

FOREX GBP/USD 23rd December 2008

Expectation that GBP was heading down towards the January lows @ 1.93320, price hit 1.93370 when US FED cut rates pushing GBP back upwards...

Around these extremes in monthly timeframes, the currenny often swings back towards the monthly 50% levels, in this case price moving upwards towards the February 50% level starting from next week.....

When Price broke Monday's lows, then expectation that price would move down into Tuesday's lows....

The market is trading in the middle of the 5-day range, therefore it can go either way until the end of the trading week, before a new trend establishes from next week...

At This stage I would use the Daily channels as Risk plays, trading Resistance and or breakouts, because it wouldn't surprise me to see the rest of the week continue to move into a sideways pattern until next week..

No probability trades for Wednesday...

SPI Trading 23rd January 2008 part 3

10:53am

Covered shorts @ 5462 to be neutral

no more trading today ...next trade tomorrow

Note: Trading outside of the Weekly lows 5525 and the expectation that price could actually end up consolidating below this for the next couple of days..... (dependent on US markets)

SPI Trading 23rd January 2008 part 2

10:45

SPI opened above the 5-day 50% level 5435 and rallied into the Resistance level @ 5525….

Expected Resistance level based on the previous 5-day lows and Weekly lows….


Market is trading above the Dilernia Pivot @ 5485…. If there is an R44 hook below and market is trading below 5485 expectation that an R44 down move back into the 5-day 50% level can play out today….

Otherwise it could end up supporting the market and heading upwards into the close from a lower R44 spiral point……


I couldn’t go long today because of the higher open and not opening near support…

First short @ 5497 R11 Reversal

Partial exit @ 5487 stopped on breakeven stops

2nd short @ 5523 and added again @ 5518 (resistance high)

Partial exit @ 5487 and looking for a 2nd R44 reversal downwards into 5448 to be neutral

SPI Trading 23rd January 2008

US Fed cut and this should stablise global markets, and hopefully begin a gradual rise back towards the Yearly 50% levels over the coming weeks.

The previous drop in August 2007, the market reversed but it wasn't confirmed until price moved back above the Weekly 50% level in the following week.

For any UP Trend reversal to take place, the first stage is the move above the 5-day 50% level, and then the break of the 3-day highs, and also the Weekly 50% level, therefore we will need another 3-days of trading and for this Week to close out to get a better chance of a reversal starting from next week...

In August last year the market rallied and made new highs over the next 2 months, in my opinion I don't think this will occur this year because of the Yearly 50% levels. Last year we were trading above them, this year we are not.

I can see a consolidating market over the next 6-months, but further weakness in the 2nd half of the year....


The first baby step in any reversal is the 5-day 50% level (5435)

We need to judge the market by this level, and don't be surprised if it's not trading above it today, we simply trade the trend based on this and focus on 44 point moves...

Above and expectation the market is moving back towards the previous 5-day lows @ 5525 and also the Weekly lows (resistance)...

Any further moves upwards will be back towards the 3-day highs and previous 5-day 50% level @ 5715...that will happen if US markets continue upwards on Wednesday....

We simply have to trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level and use the R44 spiral points as Risk Trades, along with support and resistance...

Support and Resistance is the previous 5-day ranges that have occurred, and the dynamic 5-day ranges in the present give us a market path for the future and expectant path that price can travel towards…

High Risk Trading Longs below 5413

DOW E-mini 22nd January 08 part 3

First baby step in the 'blow-off' bottom turning around is the move back above the 5-day 50% level.....

The 2nd baby step is going to be the 5-day 50% level for Wednesday, and the break above the 3-day channel highs......

(full report later)

DOW E-mini trading 22nd Jan 08 part 2

Fed cut rates .75 points, US markets rally into 5-day 50% level and stall.....

Trend guide on markets for Tuesday is the 5-day 50% level....

DOW E-mini Report 22nd January 2008

US markets will be opening outside the Weekly lows, and expectation that price is heading down.

As per Weekly report:- 'blow-off' bottom in global markets with the level of interest around 1234-40 on the S&P....

Historically, whenever the S&P comes off 23-25% from the 'peak' it's the time to be moving back into stocks (long-term).

Today when the S&P opens it will be down from it's peak 22%...however I think it's still to early to move into Stocks just yet, because I think the S&P will head down to 1170, as per Weekly report and the 3-year dynamic lows later this year... (10,450 DOW) , and much better Value for long term holdings.

Around the 5-day lows today, they are starting to align with those support zones I'm looking for....the interesting part is that my downside levels were 1234-40 based on Yearly levels, and todays 5-day lows actually match them, so it will be extremely interesting how things play out today...

The trend won't change until prices moves back above the 5-day 50% level and then follow through with a break of the Weekly 50% levels, which might take another week...however don't expect major market rallies......

Don't trade longs below Tuesday's 5-day lows......that's obvious

Resistance:- Weekly lows, and Monday's breakout and 5-day 50% levels

SPI Trading 22nd January 2008 part 6

13:30pm

The SPI and XJO are trading around the .618 Yearly pivots @ 5313....

When we look at similiar patterns over the years we can see around these lows the Australian Market can be supported...

We can also see that a 3-year pattern lows can end up being down towards 4453 in 2008...

I'd be extremely surprised to see the Aussie Market down that low, without a consolidating pattern for a couple of months and a 'Sell-down' in the 2nd half of the year....

I've analysed the S&P to come down into 1234-40, as a area that I would favour a major reversal upwards from, this translates to about 200-300 points lower on the DOW..

The first sign of any bottom is going to be the move back above the 5-day 50% level, and then the break of the 3-day highs.

With the large gap between those 3-day highs and where we are now, it will take probably until next week for any valid support to be confirmed...

As traders, we simply trade the 5-day ranges and 44 point spiral points..

SPI Trading 22nd January 08 part 5

10:40

entry 1 lot 5411 exit 5387

Whilst price is trading below 5413 I'll keep selling 1 lots and protect morning profits...

44 point swings below 5413...

Not interested in trading longs outside 5413

SPI Trading 22nd January 08 part 4

10:23am

SPI moved up off the R44 lows, hitting resistance once again @ 5413...

Entry 1 lot 5412

Exit 5400 neutral positions

SPI Trading 22nd January 08 part 3

10:04 am

Exit last 5375

R44 completion (no more trades today)

High risk trading longs below 5413....

Often the market that opens outside the 5-day range lows can swing around in 44 point ranges all day.....

No short trading above 5413.....

SPI Trading 22nd January 2008 part 2

9:58

SPI opened below the 5-day lows @ 5413, moved up and has moved down.....

Whilst trading below 5-day lows high Risk trading and LONGS

Entry 5411 and 5408

partial exit 5397

next exit 5375 to be nuetral all shorts (R44 lows)

SPI Trading 22nd January 2008

SPI opening outside the Weekly lows @ 5525 (resistance)


SPI opening inside the 5-day range 5413 and 'Gap trading'

Support 5413 .....

I favour Gap trading using support up towards the Weekly lows and previous 5-days lows as Resistance...

I favour Gap trading 'longs' inside the 5-day range, and not outside the range.

High Risk trading longs below Support, and trading longs around resistance..


Today is going to be wild, spreads wide, volume thin, slippage highly probable on any stops...


US markets are moving into a blow-off bottom, which I'm keeping an eye on around 1234-40 on S&P for any low and major counter-trend rally to stabilise markets, before heading down lower in the 2nd half of the year (Weekly report)

FOREX GBP/USD 22nd January 2008

GBP moved down into Weekly lows on Monday.....@1.9404

Once again resistance around the 43 pip high during the down move...

Tuesday's trading expectation:- price is heading towards Tuesday's lows @ 1.93460, use Monday's breakout as resistance 1.94860

Once again no probability whether Tuesday's low will support price, because Price is heading towards January lows @ 1.9332

DOW E-mini 21st January 2008 part 2

Big move down on US markets before Day session opens.

Monday will open below the 5-day lows and outside the Weekly lows...

These 5-day lows are resistance levels for Monday...

Markets currently in a 'blow-off' bottom (Weekly report)