Index Futures & Stock Reports 10 OCT 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update



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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 9 October 09 recap



    S&P Weekly

    Higher Friday close after the 3-week support, as part of the expectation that the trend is moving towards the October highs in the 4th Quarter.

    Based on the patterns in the 5-day range, I'm looking for next week to continue to push up towards the next week's highs (Monday-Tuesday), and then look for a short-term reversal pattern back towards the trailing Weekly 50% level.




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    SPI Daily 9th October 2009 recap

    "If the SPI moves up @ 4804-06, then Friday can remain range bound between the Weekly highs @ 4759 and Friday's highs

    What that means is... if price moves up and then is trading below 4793 then the expectation is a 42 point down move @ 4759, which aligns with the Weekly highs (support)"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    After yesterday’s price action and close above the 3-day high @ 4768, there was an expectation that price can move into a 2-day reversal pattern.

    Normally I would look for Set-up A to play-out and then move into
    Set-up B from next week with the view that market would continue higher in the 4th Quarter.

    However, because of the position of the Weekly highs @ 4759 there was a view that price was more likely to remain above this level today, compared to if the same 3-day cycle occurred and the market dynamic of the 3-week highs were different (above)

    The SPI remained above 4759 for most of the trading day until the market closed and after market trades pushed down SPI lower into the close.


    Set-up A into SET-UP B will now depend on US markets on Friday, because of the same 3-day cycle pattern and set-ups.




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    DOW Futures Daily 8th Oct 2009 recap

    "US markets closed above their 3-day highs, and even though I have a view of a move upwards in the 4th Quarter, I also have a view that there can be 1-2 day reversal back into support before the trend continues higher"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early resistance in both the DOW and S&P on Thursday, however my preferred pattern around these highs isn't playing out.

    Normally when price closes above the 3-day cycle I would look for set-up A to occur and then follow with Set-up B from next week towards the October higher.

    Because Thursday has pushed down but the intra-day support (yellow) has held and closed back above the 3-day high, there is now more probability that Friday will continue higher, which is what normally happens when markets hit their 3-week lows .

    4th Quarter target remains October highs.

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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 8th October 2009 recap

    "At this stage the expectation is that the SPI will continue towards the 3-day cycle highs @ 4768.

    Once there is a daily close above the 3-day cycle, then I favour a 2-day reversal back down into the Weekly 50% levels.

    Thursday Support 4697-85 "

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI completes the same moves as the S&P with a swing back into the
    3-day cycles (Thursday’s highs)

    A close above this level today (4763) and it will swing the 3-day
    cycle around, and even though I’m bullish in the 4th Quarter I’ll be
    looking for any hint of a short-term reversal pattern from tomorrow back into
    support levels.

    That reversal down will depend on price action in the US around resistance levels.

    I wanted to see the S&P 500 close above the 3-day highs @ 1055
    (closed above Wednesday), and then look for a short-term
    reversal into support levels from the next day (Thursday)

    This should hopefully provide another swing support for a
    continuation upwards in October and complete the breakout and
    extend pattern from July.

    However, a lower Weekly open from the 3-week lows
    can often continue higher into Friday, as the line of
    least resistance from September has disappeared and price is following the
    market dynamic in October.

    So the short-term reversal pattern that I want to see on Thursday might not happen.






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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 7th October 09 recap

    "Rest of this week will have an UP bias, but there can also be a down day during this week.

    The down day will normally occur after the daily close above the 3-day cycle highs.

    Based on market dynamics:- if price comes down into the 5-day 50% level I would lean towards Wednesday moving up into the highs:- higher daily close and above the 3-day cycle"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Higher daily close above 1055, but sadly price didn't come down into support to trade the higher Daily close.

    The 3-day cycle changes and at this stage I would like to see a 2-day reversal/stall pattern on Thursday/Friday

    Even though I have a view of higher prices in the 4th Quarter, a 2-day reversal pattern and a Friday close above the Weekly 50% levels can set-up another move upwards next week using the Weekly 50% levels as support.

    Posted by

    SPI Daily 7th October 2009 recap

    US markets follow the move towards the 3-day cycle highs, and today is about whether the SPI follows the same pattern @ 4768 or remains range bound once again below the 5-day 50% level

    Trend guide 4661 (5-day 50% level)

    Support 4645

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Same pattern on the SPI as the S&P 500: - move above the 5-day 50% level and price is looking to swing back towards the 3-day cycle highs @ 4768 (maybe in sycom)

    The move down into the 3-week lows didn’t play out the same as US markets, but the SPI will follow the price action of the S&P, instead risng up from the Weekly 50% level, along with the expectation of higher prices in the 4th Quarter.

    A Daily close above 4678 and I would be looking for a 2-day reversal pattern back down, and the following weekly 50% level will be trailing support levels for next week





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    S&P (e-mini ) 6th October 09 recap

    "3-week low support and an early rotation back into 1038 in the S&P.

    Last Friday 5-day low support favours a 2-day reversal pattern upwards, and often that reversal pattern is towards the 3-day cycle highs @ 1055.

    If the S&P had closed above 1039 I would look for a trending move towards 1055"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Expectation of a 4th Quarter up move after reaching the 3-week lows last week, however based on Monday’s close below the 1039, I was expecting a 3-day drop pattern and then trend to continue higher from Thursday.

    However, once above 1039 on Tuesday the 2nd day reversal pattern back towards 1055 played out.

    At this stage US markets look well supported with an expectation price should follow the last leg of the July breakout pattern into October highs.

    If the trend is going to continue higher, then we need to see a daily close above 1055 and then a short-term 2-3 day consolidation above 1039.


    Posted by

    SPI Daily 6th October 2009 recap

    "At this stage my view is that Tuesday can continue to remain in a sideways pattern.


    4654-56 is the September highs last week, and in theory should become a resistance level, however the weekly 50% level @ 4589 could end up supporting the SPI

    Tuesday's levels resistance @ 4645- 54"



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early rise up into resistance and a push back down into the Weekly 50% level @ 4589.

    I have a view that the trend will continue higher in the 4th Quarter, but I would still like to see the market come down into the 3-week lows.

    However, that will depend on the price action in the US because those markets have already hit their 3-week lows.





    Posted by

    S&P (e-mini ) 5 October 09 recap

    "As per Weekly report, my view is that price will remain range bound until the 3-day highs drop below the monthly balance point 1039.

    Friday 5-day lows support price I would look for a 2-day reversal pattern from a lower Weekly open and a higher move. This is usually helped by a support level.

    The only support level at the moment is the daily channel (yellow)"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    3-week low support and an early rotation back into 1038.

    As per my ideal pattern, I would like to see the 3-day cycles drop down
    and match 1038 and then look for any breakouts if US markets are going
    to go higher in the 4th Quarter.

    3-day cycles @ 1055.

    Tuesday is either going to stall below 1039, and then see the 3-day
    cycles drop down on Wednesday, and then the next set-up will be
    on Thursday.

    or Tuesday goes looking for the 3-day cycles @ 1055, as last week's
    support has been validated and rising up from a lower Weekly open.

    However, based on today's close below 1039 I don't favour the happening.
    If Monday had closed above 1039, then a move towards 1055 is more likely.


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    • Posted by

    SPI Daily 5th October 2009 recap

    "Expectation that the SPI is heading down into the 3-week lows as per Weekly Report.

    Today:- often a lower Weekly open can see price move upwards over the next 2-days using the Weekly 50% level as support, but not when the previous Friday breaks out.

    This normally see price move down into Monday's lows

    Resistance 4630-35"



    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern


    Early rise upwards hitting resistance levels and a move down into Monday's lows.

    The move into monday's lows was part of the 5-day breakout pattern from Friday:- break and extend pattern.

    Expectation price is heading down into the 3-week lows



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