Index & Stock Rpts 6 March 2010 Weekly

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

DOW and S&P Index Futures


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

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  • S&P (e-mini ) 5 March 2010 recap

    "The view is that the S&P is continuing upwards during this Quarter, as it follows the monthly timeframe towards the monthly highs @ 1138 and then higher in February"

    S&P monthly and Weekly

    S&P completes the move into the monthly highs @ 1138 and will continue higher next week.

    March highs will complete a double monthly pattern during this Quarterly cycle, which I would normally view as a high in the first quarter and then look for any higher moves in the 2nd Quarter using support levels (50% levels).

    With the view that price is travelling towards the 2nd Quarter highs (yellow)

    SPI Daily 5th March 2010 recap

    "Today is about whether the SPI closes on its highs (higher Friday close)

    or whether the SPI moves into a pullback towards the 3-day cycle (support).

    First R21 range will set the spiral filter"

    SPI Weekly and Range.

    SPI moved down on open 21 points setting the spiral filter @ 4757.

    This became the trend guide with a bias to continue towards a higher Friday close.

    Most of the day was choppy between the levels on Friday, closing on its highs.

    It always curious to see Friday fail to move beyond Friday's highs and have a 'no control' daily range:- (open and close in the middle)

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  • S&P (e-mini ) 4th March 2010 Daily recap

    "It’s simply a case of using the 5-day 50% level, as Thursday’s trend guide.

    If above the 5-day 50% levels (Yellow) then more upside.

    Below is a bearish push towards the monthly 50% levels into support"

    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    S&P continues to push upwards on Thursday but remaining in a tight trading range.

    A position trader trading Longs on the S&P with the expectation
    price is rising towards the monthly highs, nothing has changed and dynamically the market points to higher prices next week.

    If short from the Weekly highs (Wednesday), then the 2-day filter (yellow) is what you wanted to see broken on Thursday and confirmed with a break of the 5-day 50% level with the view price is moving towards the Support levels.

    This didn’t happen on Thursday, and as the week comes into the close, shorting this week's high has less probability of providing a 2-day reversal, because the line of resistance disappears and moves higher.

    If long using the filter (intra-day trader), the market move upward was 8 points, which is a day-traders first target range intra-day.

    SPI Daily 4th March 2010 recap

    "Even though I think markets are going higher, I'm looking for a short-term pullback this week.

    the SPI is opening around the Weekly highs and the Quarterly 50% level @ 4761

    A pullback is towards support @ 4687.

    However, the trend guide is 4744 today, and whilst price is above this level the expectation is that price is continuing higher on Thursday"

    SPI Weekly and Daily range.

    Early resistance and sell off from today’s highs @ 4761, but afternoon buying after 3pm propped the market once above 4744.

    Expectation of a pullback is towards the Monthly 50% level.

    Is the SPI going to go higher or it is going to reverse back down into the March 50% level? There is nothing to suggest either way other than it has hit resistance during this week.

    If that down move is going to occur it will happen based on US markets moving lower on Thursday and not higher.

    If I look at the S&P 500 I would think it was going higher. It’s above all the 50% levels and moving dynamically within the Weekly range towards the March highs @ 1152.

    However, whenever the S&P consolidates above the Daily 50% level for the first 3 days and can’t break resistance (Weekly highs) alarm bells begin to ring.

    Often a short-term bear pattern occurs with a break of the 5-day 50% level on Thursday @ 1111

    Because the market is regressive and range bound within a 5-day range, this can often push the S&P back into the 5-day lows on Thursday, and I have seen on occasions these lows fail to hold support on Thursday and break lower

    Therefore if long the SPI you don’t want to see the S&P 500 trading below 1111 in the short term…

    If short the S&P (weekly highs), then the interest is in the 5-day 50% level on Thursday and price trading below it.

    If long the S&P then you want it to remain above 1111 with a bias towards 1131+

    If day trading the S&P then the key level is 1111 and focus on 4 & 8 & 14-point range movements.

    S&P (e-mini ) 3 March 2010 Daily

    "no probability pattern on Wednesday, Yellow filter the trend guide"

    S&P 500

    S&P continues to trading around the Weekly highs, and Wednesday moves into a consolidating trading day within the daily range.

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  • SPI Daily 3rd March 2010 recap

    "Early trend guide on the SPI is going to be 4723...

    If above it's pushing up towards resistance levels @ 4744-52.

    Below 4723 and consolidating pattern around support @ 4696"

    SPI Weekly and Range.

    SPI is currently trading above the monthly 50% levels with a bias to continue higher.

    However, based on the current price action in the daily range I’m treating the SPI as consolidating within the daily range and looking for short-term patterns of 21 & 42 points using support or resistance

    After initially continuing higher from 4723 into resistance levels, today remained range bound with little movement around the top.

    Any short-term reversal back towards the monthly 50% level this week is either going to happen based on price action in US markets...

    Or Thursday's set-up (tomorrow) using the levels in the daily range

    S&P (e-mini ) 2nd March 2010 Daily recap

    "At this stage I'm treating US markets as range bound between the Weekly highs @ 1120 & 1132

    The Tuesday’s highs match the Weekly highs, which could result in a push back down into the monthly 50% levels"

    S&P Weekly and daily range.

    S&P has pushed up into the resistance levels on Tuesday but lacked any follow through on the downside.

    There is a potential for this week to continue higher (towards 1132-38) based on monthly dynamics, but I would like some short-term price rotation into intra-day support levels on Wednesday before any UP trend continues thereafter.

    Short-term I would like to see during globex hours price to continue down towards 1109

    SPI Daily 2nd March 2010 recap

    Tuesday’s highs @ 4738 are viewed as resistance and this completes the 2-day UP move.

    Two patterns that can occur today using 4715 as a trend guide
    1. stalls at 4715 and reverses down into support
    2. above 4715 and pushing up into the highs

    Support 4681

    SPI Weekly and Daily range

    Higher daily open and reversal down into support levels @ 4681 once confirmed with price below 4715

    Today’s trading completes the 2nd day up expectant UP trend from last Friday.

    Rest of the week becomes a random pattern within the daily range using the levels within the model.

    There is a change in the 3-day cycle with yesterdays up move, and normally I would look for a move back down or at least a 2-day stall/reversal pattern.

    S&P (e-mini ) 1st March 2010 Daily recap

    S&P Weekly and daily range.

    Upward bias towards the Weekly highs.....

    At this stage I'm treating this week as 5-day range pattern trading using upper resistance levels and lower support levels on a daily basis.

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  • SPI Daily 1st March 2010 recap

    Based on the current price action and the reversal off Friday's lows, this could lead to a 2 day up move early next Week on Monday and Tuesday.

    However, it might struggle to rise higher than 4612 on Friday, but it won’t take much for Monday to breakout

    Friday's Premium Report

    SPI Weekly and Daily range

    Today's up day was set-up with a Monday high breakout and the completion of the statistical range of 42 points @ 4681

    Expectation that the price action in the SPI to continue into
    higher highs by Tuesday.

    At this stage US markets remain above key levels with only short-term counter-trend moves.