Index Futures & Stock Reports 17 OCT 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

DOW and S&P Index Futures


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

S&P (e-mini ) 16th October 09 recap

"The UP day on Thursday has completed the 3-month cycle patterns @ 1092.

Around these levels I would look for a reversal.

Break of support (yellow) and downside target is the 3-day lows, or price will close around the 5-day 50% level"

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S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Reversal on Friday and a close in the middle of the 5-day range.

There is a lot of resistance around 1092, however next week is based on a trading range between the Weekly highs and the Weekly 50% level.

It's a simply process of looking for patterns and set-ups within the 5-day range to trade those moves.

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  • SPI Daily 16th October 2009 recap

    "Resistance 4885

    Below and a part of a Friday close around the 4845

    Support 4833-37"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    There was no probability pattern other than trading the 5-day pattern as resistance in early trading with the expectation that price would play the same reversal pattern as yesterday.

    Because of the 5-day filters, today was about using 4885 as resistance in early trading .

    As previously explained, October highs complete the 3-month break and extend patterns from July, and I would begin to look for another consolidation pattern or reversal patterns into the November 50% levels.

    That will now depend on the S&P 500.

    I made the assumption that a Wednesday high breakout will move higher on Thursday. I also made the assumption a couple of days ago that once the S&P reaches 1092 on Thursday, the 3-month cycle has ended and there is a potential reversal down.

    I don’t know if that’s going to happen, but all I can do is work with the
    lines of resistance, my ‘assumption’, the ‘price action’ unfolding, and
    run stops accordingly.

    Otherwise there will be another extended pattern upwards in October @ 5032 in the SPI, if US markets follow the continuation of higher prices on Friday

    S&P (e-mini ) 15th October 09 recap

    "There is a 5-day breakout on Wednesday that should continue into Thursday’s highs.

    Thursday’s highs are random resistance zones

    Support as shown (yellow)"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early push down into support, and then the continuation up towards the Thursday highs.

    Thursday completes the move into 1092, which is the break and extend pattern in the
    3-month cycle.

    Now it's up to where Friday closes (weekly close)

    SPI Daily 15th October 2009 recap

    "Thursday is about whether the SPI continues towards the October highs

    or whether the SPI remains range bound between the 5-day levels.

    Yesterday we have a 5-day breakout and a break and extend pattern into Thursday's highs @ 4896

    Resistance 4896

    If there is any weakness today, then the view is only a 42-44 point range down"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Thursday's highs resistance and the reversal was only 41 points down.

    As pointed out in the previous report (below), these levels around October highs are completing the break and extend patterns in the 3-month cycles, and I would be looking for short-term pullbacks using the levels in the 5-day range.

    However, it is up to the S&P to lead any reversal.

    At this point any level is simple a random resistance zone that can be for only 1 day (small range 42 points)

    or it can lead in a larger reversal 1-2 days.

    It is obvious that the Weekly range is rising up from a lower open so there is a bias for the market to remain with the trend until Friday

    We aren't in a higher Weekly open and resistance scenario pattern at this stage.

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  • S&P (e-mini ) 14 th October 09 recap

    "In the Weekly report my view was for the first two days to push up towards the Weekly highs.

    Weekly highs are viewed as random resistance levels this week, and at still don’t have a probability pattern other than using the levels in the 5-day pattern.

    Wednesday’s 5-day highs random resistance"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    S&P continues to creep upwards as reporting season breathes more life into the markets.

    Wednesday pushed upwards hit resistance in the 5-day pattern and some early selling pressure, but a late move above will push prices higher on Thursday.

    As of Thursday, I would be to look for the same patterns and continue to use market dynamics as resistance levels in the 5-day pattern, and begin to hold positions contracts into the close.

    That’s simply because on Thursday, the 3-monthly cycle from July into October will have played out.

    There’s no view that there will be a major reversal down on Thursday or even this week, but it’s something to be aware that any short-term reversal being 1-2 days or more will start from a level within the model.

    I have a 4th Quarter extension pattern that can take the S&P towards 1141, but if it’s going to go towards that level I feel it's more likely to kick upwards from November.

    At this stage I have 3 Weekly set-ups coming into play based on Friday’s close and this new 3-month cycle (4th Quarter)

    SPI Daily 14th October 2009 recap

    "SPI remains trading inside the 5-day range with a bias to continue higher in October, however the two patterns we need to keep an eye on is whether price is moving up towards the Weekly highs @ 4845, or moving down into the 3-day lows @ 4737

    If price moves upwards then the trend guide is going to be 4804, and whilst above that level price can continue towards the Wednesday highs"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Higher daily open and once the R42 range close above 4804 the bias was to follow the 5-day pattern into the Wednesday& Weekly highs @ 4845.

    Even though the October trend is to continue into the monthly highs @ 4940+, the SPI can continue to remain range bound this week and then follow the Weekly dynamics higher next week.

    That will depend on the price action in US markets on Wednesday.

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  • S&P (e-mini ) 13th October 09 recap

    Bias is to rise upwards in October, and Price is trading above last week’s highs, therefore the bias is to follow the trend higher towards the October highs over the next 2 weeks.

    Tuesday's highs random resistance

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Early push down into the 5-day 50% level on Tuesday and a move back towards the 5-day highs and random resistance.

    As per Weekly report there was an expectation that price will push upwards over monday and Tuesday this week

    At this stage it's simply short-term range trading until the end of this week using the levels in the 5-day range.

    However, I don't have a probability 2-day pattern set-up for the rest of this week

    SPI Daily 13th October 2009 part 5

    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    There is a view of a higher prices in October, but today there wasn’t any higher probability set-ups.

    Price is trading above last week's highs so there is a bias to move higher.

    Unless price is trading near a timeframe level in the 5-day pattern, then there isn’t an ideal set-up to trade other than focusing on the small range completions of 21-42 points.

    Even though I have a view of higher prices as per of the October move, a retest of the 3-day cycle lows would be an ideal set-up for the nexr move upwards.

    The retest the 3-day lows (verify support) and then continue higher the next day, matched by the 5-day 50% level.

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  • S&P (e-mini ) 12th October 09 recap

    "With Friday's close and this week trading above last week's Weekly highs, price can continue higher on Monday.

    Monday’s highs Random resistance"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Small range day on Monday between the highs and support.

    SPI Daily 12th October 2009 recap

    "Higher Weekly open and normally I would look for a pullback into support and then a higher move towards the Weekly highs.

    However, it won't surprise me to see Monday move higher.

    The trend guide is simply going to be based on Friday's level @ 4784"

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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    I didn’t have a probability pattern today other than trading on the right side of 4784.

    Above and the expectation was a higher move towards Monday’s highs:- R42 up.

    This was part of the overall view of the move towards October highs.

    Below was a reversal pattern down:- higher spiral point and Weekly open pattern.