Weekly Report Update 8th March 2008

Index Futures:- Weekly Reports

Australian Index Weekly Report

US Index Weekly (DOW and S&P)

Please click Weekly reports to the right.......


'the stock report':- Australian Banking Stocks

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/search?q=banking

DOW E-mini 7th March 2008 part 3

Short-covering rally coming into the close of the trading day.

DOW failed by only 11 points reaching a Buy zone.

Any short-covering rally on Friday will probably remain below the break of the Weekly lows....

Full US Weekly report later .....

DOW E-mini Trading 7th March 2008 part 2

Breakout of the Weekly lows, 5-day 50% level resistance, and price has moved down into support on Friday....

Support:- levels of interest for any short-covering with over 1 hour to go before market closes for the weekend.

DOW E-mini 7th March 2008

On Wednesday US markets closed above their 3-day highs. On Thursday they came back down and re-tested the 3-day lows and Weekly support.

On Friday US markets are still trading around the Weekly lows, and a break of these lows and market is following the 5-day ranges lower....

Whenever the market breaks support in 1 day, the expectation is that price is moving down towards the next support in the following day.

The first down move is the 5-day lows on Friday, and below these lows price 'could' move down as far as support shown in the above charts.

That's the view for Friday... the trend guide is the 5-day lows from Thursday with the expectation price is moving further down.

Note: When you look at the Daily charts you can see price has moved back down and tested the 3-day lows (change of cycle),and Weekly lows confirming support.

I would be extremely surprised that buyers would come into the market around here, but it's a pattern that I've seen before that could attract buyers into the market and push upwards on Friday.

However, I always have the view that a close below the support levels in the previous day will often push down towards the 5-day lows in the next day.

SPI Trading 7th March 2008 part 6

SPI 16:10

First time that Friday has been trading outside the 5-day lows, and the first time that buyers haven't come into the market, but was driven down into the lows before short-covering came in around the lows

I went long earlier on the break @ 5281, due to the break of the highs with the expectation that the R44 could 'hook' back inside the 5-day lows. I was going to run it into the close.

Stopped -7

Market came down to complete the R44 low and went long @ 5256 on reversal bar around the lows and exit 5283 + 27

Now let's see how US markets playout on Friday, because the Aussie market is still trading below all major support zones until next week (back inside Weekly channels)

SPI Trading 7th March 2008 part 5

SPI 13:50

SPI still trading in a consolidating pattern of 14 point ranges between the two 5-day lows, and within the next 40 minutes volume should start to pick up around 14:36.

I still favour a down move into the R44 lows @ 5255, but whether the market moves higher or rallies higher this afternoon is another matter:- (R44 Hook)......

Looking at the SPI market over 24 hours, we can see the break of the Quarterly lows and Weekly lows today.

This was confirmed with the break of the 5-day lows in the Day session.....

The expectation is that US markets could make lower lows on Friday, and a break of the March .618 @ 5249, and price could end up down as far as the Weekly 100% level overnight 5051, which isn't going to go well for my bank stocks.

So the important level for any short-covering this afternoon is going be the R44 lows and the previous 5-day lows @ 5259, otherwise it's a Friday that will close much lower.....

Note: the 24 hour charts are going to have different ranges compared to the day session because of the larger overnight moves based on sycom.

What was a Weekly low support on the 24 hour markets, was a resistance breakout (100 point difference ) in the day session.

SPI Trading 7th March 2008 part 4

12:25

SPI Trading between the 5-day lows @ 5290 and 5259....

Once again I would have gone long on the lows @ 5255 the R44 lows, but it missed by 2 ticks this time. (low 5257)

I wanted to short under 5290, but I was waiting for an R22 rejection pattern to trade down into 5259 which didn't play out, instead it moved straight down...

I've gone into short-term scalping trades during this consoldation phase taking small chunks but trading on the short-side....

If you have Range bars... have a look at the R14 bar it's consolidating in 14point ranges atm...

This will change once 14:36 comes along.....

FOREX GBP/USD 7th March 2008

GBP has moved higher this week, bouncing off the Weekly 50% level and Monthly balance point, and continuing higher.

The important part of this price action is the reversal and break of the March 50% level and the Weekly highs (another Weekly breakout) , and trading above the Yearly balance point.

All it needs now is to move back above the Quarterly50% level.....2.0184


Expectation that the confirming move was the break of the 3-day range, and expectation that price will move UP towards Friday's highs.....

Weekly .618 range is support... 2.0045

Same Weekly support range last week and first breakout @ 1.97980

SPI Trading Part 2 & 3 7th March 2008

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sorry for the delayed posts, but I was posting in the wrong blog section... 'stock-report'

SPI 10:40


SPI now trading below 5323 and above the 5-day lows @ 5290.


Today's expectation was that at least price would move down on open around 22 points before any buying would come in. This put price below 5323 and then the expectation that price would continue down into the R44 lows @ 5293 and find support around the 5-day lows.

Market hit a low of 43 points and 5294.....

I was going to go long on the lows, but missed trading longs by 1 tick completion of the bar.

I've done a couple of short-term ‘scalpe’ shorts trades of 10 points using 5323 as resistance.


The view is still for price to come down into an R44 low and find support @ 5290, the interesting part is....will it line up with a nice 11am low...

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SPI Trading Report part 3 (11:09)

11:09

Long 5291 stopped 5284 (-7)

Break of the 5-day lows.... high Risk trading longs below 5290

SPI trading below the 5-day lows @ 5290 and it's 11.00am and the market has settled down.

The only problem is that it's trading below the 5-day lows and below a 'spiral-low'

Expected resistance 5290-94...

Next 5-day lows @ 5259.

The only thing that I would get interested in trading any LONGS based on 'short-covering' today would be an R44 'hook' back the 5-day lows after 14:36.....

SPI Trading 7th March 2008

US markets push down on Thursday, and SPI is opening up around 5323 and the .618 of the Quarterly lows.

There is a lot of support around these lower levels, and as I mentioned yesterday, there is still an expectation that price will go looking to re-test the 5-day 50% level.....

5-day lows are Support:- 5290 and the 5-day 50% level is 5452.

That's a big up move , but it's something that could happen, and that will be confirmed with buying from 14:36, as is often the case on Friday's.

Today:- your guess is as good as mine on where price will open, and whether price will be supported @ 5323, or it moves down into the 5-day lows..

Often on a lower 'gap' open they will push price down 22 points before trying to 'buy' it upwards to close the gap....

And the same price action as mentioned yesterday:- 11am and the R44 spiral point as a trend guide for reversal patterns (support/resistance)

DOW E-mini 6th March part 3

3 hours later, and with 1 hour to go before the market closes, US markets are still supported above their Daily and Weekly low support zones....(late short covering)

Often when the intraday 'Support' level has broken, the normal pattern is to follow the next day lower..so there is a possibility of another wave down on Friday.

And that's going to depend on Friday's 5-day 50% level.....

Full Report later

DOW E-mini 6th March part 2

This is the price acton that I was looking for to happen yesterday.....

Break of Support and push down into the 5-day lows, and re-test of Tuesday's lows....

Confirmed March down-trend is a break and close below Weekly lows Today....

'The Stock Report'

Banking Stocks....update 6th March 2008


http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/search?q=banking

DOW E-mini trading 6th March 2008

US markets breaking the 3-day highs after bouncing off the Weekly lows......

Looking at price action I can only make the conclusion that the Weekly 50% levels can be resistance on a higher open, with a re-test of support in both markets and I would look for a move towards the 5-day highs or a day with an UP bias

It doesn't look like it's going to go down on Thursday, but the Risk level is 'support' on trading on the 'long' side.

High Risk Trading Longs below Support on 'Thursday'

SPI Trading 6th March 2008 part 4

SPI 14:30

SPI coming up to 14:36 and a top of a R44 spiral point.

I'm not sure how 14:36 buying is going to play out today, because of the 'top', and we haven't seen 14:36 buying the past 2 days.

Earlier R44 top @ 5418 played out a 22 point reversal down before heading higher, I would have preferred more consolidation after that high, instead of the move upwards.....

Each way bet around these highs:- personally sitting out the rest of the day..

SPI Trading 6th March 2008 part 3

11:30....

Spiral point after 11am and market expectation is that price will move into a consolidating pattern until the afternoon....

Support:- 5375...

"Note: trading times to keep an eye on are 14:36 as usual, and after the initial opening period around 11.ooam things begin to settle down and move into a rotation phase, where short-term 'scapling' trades can be taken if you are that way inclined. (9-11 point ranges)

If you are only interested in trading small increments in the market (between 6-15 points), sometimes waiting until 11am is the best strategy when the SPI settles and consolidates using the R44 spiral point as support/resistance."

And if lucky you get a follow through into the R44 completion....

SPI Trading 6th March 2008 part 2

SPI 10:24

SPI opened higher and has now moved down into an R44 low:- price action at this level has a random outcome, but it's under the 5-day lows once again 5437.

A bit choppy this morning:-

Short 5434 stopped 5441 -7

Short 5446 stopped 5552 -6

Short 5445 partial exit 5434 (R22 low) +11

Added shorts on R22 Spiral top @ 5445 Partial Exit 5535 and Exit 5516 +29

No more trading now until things settle, but price is under the 5-day lows @ 5437 and not interested in trading longs atm....

Might get some support around 5402.....

SPI Trading 6th March 2008

SPI Consolidation below the breakout zone of 5437, and price has moved into a 3-day sideways pattern...

The 3-day highs have now caught up with Price, therefore a break of the 3-day highs and the expectation is price is moving back towards the previous break @ 5553 and the Weekly 50% level.

Today: higher Spiral point open and my view that price needs to swing down before it can go upwards from a lower spiral point.

Resistance 5437

This week we haven't tested the 5-day 50% level, and I'll be looking for a move towards the 5-day 50% level. Whether it happens today or tomorrow I don't know, but it's something to keep an eye on especially price rising up from an R44 Spiral-low.

At this stage I'm focusing on 'shorting' the higher open and looking for a move down, after that I don't have a view on the direction... price can continue down after the 3-day highs have caught up with price pushing the market down further, or it's going to swing upwards from an R44 low.

Note: trading times to keep an eye on are 14:36 as usual, and after the initial opening period around 11.ooam things begin to settle down and move into a rotation phase, where short-term 'scapling' trades can be taken if you are that way inclined. (9-11 point ranges)

If you are only interested in trading small increments in the market (between 6-15 points), sometimes waiting until 11am is the best strategy when the SPI settles and consolidates using the R44 spiral point as support/resistance.

DOW E-mini 5th March 2008 part 2

US moved upwards early in the day on Wednesday before being pushed back down and now consolidating around support..... What Price did was go a re-test Friday's breakout of the 3-day lows and then get pushed back down into support.

The re-test of Fridays' breakout was what I was looking for to happen early this week before the next Move down......

I was expecting more weakness on Wednesday with the failure of the highs, and with 1 hour to go before the day closes this might still happen, but it looks like a flat close around the middle of range of the past 3 days.

Full Report later.....

FOREX GBP/USD 6th March 2008

GBP is range bound between the Weekly 50% level and the Monthly 50% level, and swinging between the 5-day ranges on Wednesday.

No leads on which direction GBP will take.... it's swing trading using the 5-day ranges as GBP remains range bound between both higher timeframe levels

DOW E-mini 5th March 2008

US markets on Tuesday pushed down into the Weekly lows and bounced with a late 'short-covering' rally.

Until US markets break those Tuesday's lows, then both markets remain range bound.

We can now see that the 3-day highs have caught up with price, and it was the same price action that occured in the Australian Market today, a higher move towards the 3-day highs before being push down into the lows again in the last 100 minutes of trading....

Wednesday:- Two plays today

1. Support and push upwards into the 3-day highs, which also match the 5-day 50% level can set-up a down move.

This will be confirmed with a break of support and a lower daily close:- Failure @ the 5-day 50% level and 3-day high and continuation of the down trend. (trending down day and break of Tuesday's lows)

2. I also mentioned in yesterday's report:- a bounce off the Weekly lows and traders can't discount a move higher on Wednesday, that will have to be verified with a break of the 3-day highs.

Simply trade either side of Support.....

SPI Trading 5th March 2008 part 6

15:30

SPI selling off into the close and moving down into the 5323....following the overall trend down (below 5-day lows @ 5437) confirmed with an R22 rejection

Next SPI report tomorrow

SPI Trading 5th March 2008 part 5

14:50

Expectation that if there was going to be BUYing coming into the market it would be around 14:36...

I was trying to BUY the SPI earlier @ 5411 looking for a swing upwards, price move up into an R22 high (under the 5-day low 5437) and started to move back down towards 14:36

Entry Short 5429 exit 5417 +12

Entry Long 5411 stopped 5404 -7

No more trades today: - below 5-day lows (5437) and no buying after 14:36 not looking for longs the rest of the day

SPI Trading 5th March 2008 part 4

13:08

SPI has come down into the R44 lows and so far has found support.....

This is the price action that I wanted to see before any UP move 'could'???? occur.

Finally got my follow through on the down side + 27

But at this stage I haven't switched to 'longs' (support 5411)....

A little bit early for major buying to come into the market......

SPI Trading 5th March 2008 part 3

12:00

SPI still consolidating under the Spiral top @ 5456...

If the market is going to move higher into the close I would still like to see a 44 point down move into a spiral low before heading higher.

I do favour a higher move into the close, because price is trading above the Weekly and 5-day low breakout, and this price action has been supported already this morning....

In the mean time I'm just simply using the spiral top as resistance, and 'short-selling' (4th time) 'scalping' the top using 6-9 point partial exits and running $ breakeven stops above 5456 the same length, (stopped once) eventually I'm hoping that a down move will eventuate and complete the range downwards into an R44 low....

FOREX GBP/USD 5th March 2008

GBP sideways pattern and still wating for a breakout of the 3-day range (highs or lows)

Consolidating around the 5-day 50% levels with an each way bet either way or direction...

Price is still trading above the trend guide and R110 low from Monday.....

Until it breaks the 3-day range????????

SPI Trading 5th March 2008 part 2

10:34

SPI rallied on open and moved into a Double R44 highs (two 44 point ranges)

I did expect some buying support today on a lower open, but I would have preferred a lower open around 5358 and the swing upwards, and not a rally from a higher open.

Short first R44 spiral @ 5422 stopped 5428 -6

Short 5434 stopped 5441 -7

Short 2nd R44 spiral on R11 reversal @ 5454 exit 5539 + 15

Neutral positions on trades to make up for morning losses....

Market can be supported and continue higher later in the day, towards 5-day 50% level or more, however at this stage it's too early to tell what direction the market will move, but the expectation is that price would need to complete an R44 low for a better upswing into close...

SPI Trading 5th March 2008

Breakout of the Weekly and 5-day lows this week and expectation that price would push down into 5323.

This was reached overnight , and there is still a possibility that on Wednesday price will go down and match the lows today......

Today's lower open will form a ' spiral-point', which makes it hard to go short today on open, even though it can move downwards.

The best 'short-trades' are from Higher spiral-points, until price moves into 14:36 where 'short-covering' comes into the market pushing price upwards.

Today:- Market is still in a breakout of the Weekly and 5-day lows and the trend remains down.

Personally I can't go 'short' on a lower spiral point, I would need the market to rise upwards 44 points to give me a better option of going 'short' from a higher spiral-point.

If I want to go long then around 5358 is my interest zone looking for a 'fade-trade'.

Below 5358 and market will push down.....(44 points down matches 5323)

Note:- If market rises upwards from a lower open and moves upwards 44 points, this can reverse back down and continue lower today from a higher Spiral point.

Or it could also continue upwards back towards the 'break-out; zone of 5437.

In conclusion:- I favour a move upwards from a lower open with the expectation that price will complete an R44 top.

After that R44 'top' the market has a random outcome, it can swing back down following the overall trend down into 5323.

Or price can continue upwards today from the lower open and back into the break of 5437 with further buying from 14:36.

DOW E-mini 4th March 2008 part 2

US markets opened below support and pushed down on the 3rd day towards the Weekly lows....

And both markets are still supported around the Weely lows with over 1 over hour remaining until Tuesday ends.....(short-covering)

If both market can't break the Weekly lows on the 3rd day down move, then I would look for counter-trend moves upwards on Wednesday.....

Full report later

DOW E-mini 4th March 2008

US markets have remained below the 3-day lows and are still trading inside the Weekly channel lows. For any further weakness in US markets, those channel lows need to break and continue down.

With the lower Weekly open this week, the expectation is that price could move into a 2-day 'stall-reversal' pattern, and in theory that has completed (Sunday-Monday), and if there is going to be a next wave down then Tuesday is more probable.....

Monday's trading was a bit flat, as I would have preferred price to re-test the breakout of Friday using the lower Support levels. (just failed to reach)

Tuesday is simply going to be trading on either side of support:- bounce off support and US markets are moving upwards, and with the possibilty of a reversal trending UP DAY.

Below Support and it's probably going to move lower and head lower because of the completion of the 2-day 'stall' pattern and 3rd day continuation of the trend.

SPI Trading 4th March 2008 part 4

11:55

SPI is still consolidating below channel lows and moving up into an R44 spiral top....

R44 tops in down trending markets are ideal for re-entry points with the expectation that price is still under pressure below channel lows, and heading lower.

Entry S 5409 stopped 5416 -7

Entry S 5406 exit 5398 5379 +27

No more trading today until after %rate news is released

FOREX GBP/USD 4th March 2008

GBP moving into a sideways pattern:- trading below the Monthly 50% level of March, and above the support of the 3-day lows and Weekly 50% level.

In the chart on the right we can see the coming together of the 3-day channels, and it's going to 'pop' out either side soon.


Yesterday I was looking for an R110 low and then a break above the intra-day support line for a move towards the monthly 50% level, and or breakout.

This has completed and now moving upwards and above support....

Note:- Whilst price is above support it's heading towards the 3-day highs (breakout)

Below support and it's moving down into the 3-day lows.

traders can also wait for a breakout with the expectation that there will be a follow through the next day towards the 'new' 3-day range.

SPI Trading 4th March 2008 part 3

10:18

SPI following the Weaker pattern of the higher Spiral point and moving back under the Channel breakout zones....

Below 5437 and expectation price will probably push down or remain flat into %rate news @ 14:30

Exit 5392 +53 (neutral positions)

On sidelines but I wouldn't go looking for longs below the breakout zone today, as it's following the breakout 'Sell' pattern and heading down...

SPI Trading 4th March 2008 part 2

SPI 10:02

SPI opened much higher than expected @ 5460, but still providing a higher spiral point to trade the gap down.....

I don't know how price will react with this higher open, but there is still the expectation that the R44 low will complete @ 5418 (can't go long unless it's a lower R44 spiral point)

Short 5445 partial exit 5429 +16 Holding...

Stop entry price

Note: this higher open is not want would normally happen when a market wants to move further down. The best set-up is always a lower open and rise upwards into 5435 (R44 top) and then move lower from the spiral point and continuation down outside the channel lows

At this stage it's an each way bet until %rate news comes out @ 14.30, with price trading above channel highs.

SPI Trading 4th March 2008

SPI Trading in below Quarterly support and a 'breakout' of the Weekly channel lows.

Expectation that whilst price is trading below the breakout, price is moving down into 5323.

When we look at the break of the 3-day cycle, and look at the highs of the past 3-days, we can see that there is a large gap towards those highs @ 5713, nearly 300 points higher.

Whenever there is a change of the 3-day cycle traders can't discount a counter-trend move back towards the highs or a 2-day reversal. Last week there was a massive 2-day reversal back down towards the 3-day lows on Thursday and Friday, and that can happen this week also.

Yesterday's trading was based on the 5-day lows @ 5437.

I also modelled that price could consolidate outside the lows but only move in a 44-point range.

Today's trading is going to be based on the same 5-day lows @ 5437.

I also modelled that a higher spiral point using the R44 high would provide a 'short-trade' on Tuesday, with a much better set-up for any 'down-trending' day.....

"Depending on where the market opens tomorrow, but we can use the R44 spiral top tomorrow as a Risk-short and short-trade down following the 5-day ranges:-breakout and follow the 5-day range lower on Tuesday"

Tuesday:- R44 high Spiral top @ 5435 will provide the best 'short' set-up today, with an expectation that price will move down and continue down into a trending day.

Above 5435-5437 and it's heading back towards the 5-day 50% level, as part of the 2-day reversal.

Note:- Interest rate decision will be out this afternoon after 2.30pm, and the market is already factoring in .25% rate rise. How the market acts until that the time of announcment is unknown, but once again keep an eye on timeframe levels and Spiral points along with and 14:36 'buying', after the news comes out.

DOW E-mini Trading 3rd March 2008

Please read the Weekly Report before proceeding....

DOW and E-mini Daily charts

Both US markets are still range bound between Weekly channels, and any further down move in March needs to be verified with a breakout of those Weekly support zones.

Keep in mind that on Friday both markets broke the 3-day lows, often when that happens Price will move into a 2-day counter-trend move Upwards before the trend continues down.

Also it's a Weekly low and there is a large Gap to the 3-day highs:- 2-day reversal 3rd day 'sell' pattern.

Friday:- Breakout of the 5-day range lows will often push down before reversing back up to re-test the breakout.

Monday:- Support and expectation price will move back towards the Breakout from Friday (expected Resistance)

Monday could end up being a consolidating trading day between Support and Resistance....

Don't trade LONGS below Support on Monday, as prices are heading down towards the March lows, as per Weekly report