Index Futures, Forex Reports 16th Aug 08


Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...


Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/

DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/


EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


Note: Weekly BHP and Banking Reports Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/





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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) DOW 15th August 2008 Recap

    "Everything about the US markets based on this week's price action looks to be heading higher on Friday.....Friday will open higher, and if there is a slight fade then use the Yellow support zones in each market (1291)...

    There is major resistance around these upper levels, based on the June Breakout, the Monthly 50% levels, and also the Weekly highs...."

    Yesterday's report


    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern.

    S&P found support @ 1291 on Friday, but lacked any buying strength.

    This UP trend in US markets were dependant on how well Friday would rally and close.

    Friday didn't rally and didn't breakout of the resistance levels...




    Posted by

    SPI Trading 15th August 2008 recap

    "Last 44 point range from Thursday needs to complete, and due to the spiral low I favour an UP move into 4962.... (support 4914)

    The rest of today will be defined by the 5-day 50% level....4966

    If the Spi completes the R44 range upwards (4962) then there are two plays.....

    1. hits the 5-day 50% level and reverses back down because this time price is trading below the filter 4970, whereas yesterday price was rising up from the brown filter 4903."

    Morning Report




    SPI Daily Recap 16:10

    SPI rises up from the lows @ 4917 and completes the Range target @ 4962...

    The rest of the day remained below the 5-day 50% level and rotating around between the spiral filter.

    Spiral filter

    Support around the lows today and pushing up into the fitler @ 4970, as part of the morning report, and then back down into support for a sideways trading day to close out the Weekly timeframe.





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    • Posted by

    DOW (S&P) Trading 14th August 2008 recap

    There is major resistance around these upper levels, based on the June Breakout, the Monthly 50% levels, and also the Weekly highs.

    I also pointed out in the Weekly report, that for any UP trend to continue price would come back and re-test the Weekly 50% level, before any new UP trend could continue.

    And this is whats happened this week.

    Price action favours rising higher as long as price is trading above the weekly 50% levels:- Trade on the side of the blue channel....


    DOW Daily and 5-day pattern

    US markets have found support above the Weekly 50% level, and looks to be pushing higher into Friday....

    Early selling pressure on Thursday, before a crossover of the blue channel and heading higher...



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    • Posted by

    SPI Trading 14th August 2008 Recap

    "If the SPI moves up an completes the R44 top, because price is below the 5-day 50% level, I'm leaning to a down move:- resistance 4952

    At this stage I'm factoring in that price will remain below the 5-day 50% level in early trading.

    If price rises up and into the 5-day 50% level, then there is less resistance at this level today, especially in late trading...."

    Today's report




    SPI Daily and 5-day pattern 16:20

    The early report sounds a bit cryptic, but if you understand intra-day price patterns, the early price action favours a 'down- move' (44 points), before any potential UP move can play out...

    SPI opened at early resistance @ 4951 and sold down into an R44 low... reversing off 4911 and rallying higher:- best long patterns are when prices are rising up from support or R44 low patterns, as was the case today.

    I haven't seen this much volatility in 1 day for a couple of months with nearly 7X44 points ranges of nearly 300 points in price patterns on Thursday.

    SPI Spiral filter and 22 point range bars.

    But regardless of any morning reports, traders simply introduce Spiral filters and trade rejection patterns:- A rejection patterns moves away from the spiral filter and travels a minimum 44 points.


    SPI sold down from 4951 into an R44 low, reversing off the spiral filter and rallying higher....

    a 2nd long pattern was once again confirmed @ 4990 at the top with a 'test' and reject pattern sending the SPI higher once again with a 3rd R44 range bar...

    Then in late trading and reversal back under the filter @ 5028 sending the market down into the close...

    it's not often you see nearly 20X22 point range bars in 1 days trading...

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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) DOW 13th August 2008 Recap

    S&P Weekly and Daily Charts


    Often when markets breakout of the monthly channels they often come back and re-test the breakout and then continue with the overall trend.

    This is what's been happening in the US markets at the start of August, a re-test of the June breakout.

    There is major resistance around these upper levels, based on the June Breakout and the Monthly 50% levels.

    I also pointed out in the Weekly report, that for any UP trend to continue price would come back and re-test the Weekly 50% level, before any new UP trend could continue.

    And this is what's happened this week (right chart)

    http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/2008/08/dow-s-weekly-report-9th-august-2008.html


    Overall I'm factoring in another wave down this Quarter to bottom out the market in 2008, but that's going to depend how US markets react to this Weekly 50% level and this Friday's close....

    A bullish trend should bounce off the Weekly 50% level and continue higher into Friday confirming the break above the 50% levels.

    A failure to close out on Friday, and as per Weekly report, I would begin to look for continuation down probably in the last Week of this month.
    Posted by

    SPI Trading 13th August 2008 recap

    "There has been support this week around the highs of the previous 3-days from last week:- 4982....

    And if the Weekly trend is going to continue higher this week, then the 5-day 50% level @ 4982 should in theory support the market and continue higher.....

    In a bullish up trend within the Weekly timeframe price should rise higher from the 5-day 50% level....

    Note:- the only concern is price opening below the August balance point on Wednesday. A break below 4982 and the next level down is 4952-7 (random support)

    As pointed out in the Stock Report:- expectation that Resource stocks are moving lower and this isn't helping the index....

    If 4952 can't hold there is no reason why the SPI can't continue down towards the 3-day lows today or by tomorrow's open:- 3-day lows are @ 4880"


    SPI Daily Recap 16:30


    SPI sells off breaking the 5-day 50% level @ 4982 and moving down towards the 3-day lows....

    This reversal back down towards the 3-day lows is often a pattern you see, but it's now up to US markets (DOW and S&P) to see if they continue higher on Wednesday, after reversing down from their monthly 50% levels. (Report below)

    The Trend remains bearish and my view is for markets to make lower lows in this Quarter, but it's up to US market to follow through on support on Wednesday, which failed in the SPI today.

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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) DOW 12th August 2008 Recap

    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

    Resistance around the Weekly highs and monthly 50% level, and as pointed out into the Weekly report.....

    Ideally the best set-up for a continuation higher is for a 're-test' of the Weekly 50% level before any new uptrend continues....

    And this looks like what's occurring....


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    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) DOW 11th August 2008 Recap

    "Higher Weekly open and I would like to see a re-test of the Weekly 50% level if any new uptrend is going to continue in August....Weekly highs resistance.

    Trade on the side of the yellow channel.... "

    Yesterday's Report
    S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

    US markets continue higher completing the move into the Weekly highs:- trading above the yellow filter......

    Posted by

    SPI Trading 11th August 2008 Recap

    "After reading the Weekly report the expectation is that the SPI is heading towards the Weekly highs @ 5159.

    It might take two days to get there, or it could take all week...

    Ideally I would like to see a re-test of the Weekly 50% level and then a continuation upwards, but I don't think Monday will come all the way back down into 4947.

    Today:- a higher open and I don't want to be trading longs, just yet.

    There is a gap open and I would like to see this gap closed:- minimum 44 points."

    Premium Morning Report

    SPI Daily and 5-day pattern 16:00

    Higher open on Monday, closing the gap from Friday, and then finding support and buyers appearing pushing the SPI higher into the close.

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