Index Futures & Stock Reports 23 Jan 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

DOW and S&P Index Futures


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

DOW S&P 22 January 2010 Daily recap

DOW S&P Monthly

US markets complete the reversal pattern from January highs into the 50% levels.

I would expected some volatility around these levels for the next 5-days, but it doesn't mean that the trend is going to find support and begin the next move upwards.

That's about 5-days away.

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  • SPI Daily 22nd January 2010 recap

    SPI Weekly and Daily range (24 hour market)

    Break of Support (expected), as the market comes towards the end of the month.

    This was confirmed overnight in sycom once the S&P 500 followed the expected reversals from the January highs, with or without Obama's speech.

    At this stage the market is below Weekly lows and January 50% level @ 4741.

    Today opened below Friday's lows and it struggled to rise higher (resistance), but I would have preferred another 42 point down move sometime today:- range bar rotations outside the Daily lows.

    Weekly report out tomorrow:-

    S&P (e-mini ) 21 JAN 2010 Daily recap

    S&P Weekly and Daily pattern

    Break of support and a move down into the Weekly lows.

    This was the pattern I expected to happen on Tuesday this week, and I must admit I wasn't expecting it to happen on Thursday.

    However, once Obama came out with the news regarding Banks and Hedge funds it was enough to send US markets lower, which has been my original view after reaching the January highs.

    SPI Daily 21st January 2010 recap

    "SPI Trading around the Weekly lows and Support.

    Even though there is an expectation that price can rise upwards from these lower support levels, it will depend on where the market opens in relation to those levels.

    Below 4828 the market can push downwards in early into support zones (4796).

    Above and the market is rising into 4843"

    SPI Weekly and Daily range

    SPI is trading around the Weekly lows & near the January 50% level, but below the levels in the daily range on Thursday capping any rotating patterns towards 4843-69

    These Weekly levels @ 4782-96 are robust support zones, and can often be the bottom of a ‘downward trend’ and then the market continues higher thereafter.

    If this exact same pattern was happening in December then it will normally support the market and continue upwards and follow the trendinto next months highs.

    As you are aware I’m expecting more downside the closer we come to the end of the month, and I’m not expecting these levels to hold because of my overall view of 2010 (below 4956)

    However, I need US markets to follow and break support next week, because these levels in the SPI don’t often fail during the day session, even though there’s a breakout of the daily lows on Thursday @ 4821.

    S&P (e-mini ) 20 JAN 2010 Daily

    "US markets followed the 2nd day up move and back into Resistance.

    I still view these Monthly and Weekly highs as resistance.

    And this stage I’m treating the rest of the week as sideways 5-day Day pattern trading"

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    S&P Weekly and Daily range

    S&P continues to form resistance levels around the highs, and continues to remain within the Daily range.

    As you know I’m bearish around these upper levels during this month with a bias to continue lower as we come into the end of the month.

    However, for the next 1-2 days I'm treating the market as range bound within these current levels.

    SPI Daily 20th January 2010 recap

    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    More of the same pattern rotations, as the market continues to consolidate with a downward bias within the Weekly timeframe and the daily range.

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  • S&P (e-mini ) 19 JAN 2010 Daily

    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Weekly 50% level and daily low support on Tuesday has completed the 2nd day pattern up into resistance levels once again.

    However, that wasn’t part of my view for Tuesday.

    The price action for larger trend reversals often retest the 50% levels on Monday in the daily range and sell off on Tuesdays breaking support and heading down into 1111 (weekly lows)

    This looked likely during globex hours before the cash market opened, providing a partial exit on the lows and trailing stops above the 50% levels.

    The rest is history, support came in on the lows and the market is now back around the Highs once again.

    And this stage I’m treating the rest of the week as sideways 5-day pattern trading (Taking Chunks out of the ATR)

    SPI Daily 19th January 2010 recap

    "Bearish trend reversals from Monthly highs don't normally close back above the weekly 50% level @ 4871, they normally test them and close lower.

    The market is still in a 3-day Sell cycle (below 4907), so at this stage I don't know whether this is just a short-term up move from a lower Weekly open and the trend continues down.

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    SPI Weekly and Daily pattern
    I’m currently bearish on the markets and yesterday’s price action should have remained below 4871.

    I also understand that Weekly 50% level support will normally begin with a 1-2 day counter-trend move (yesterday) at the start of the new week.

    What looked like a short-term long set-up for many, has now turned into a retest of the 3-day cycle (‘sell @ 4907) and a break of key levels once again, which helps match my original view.

    The SPI opened above keys levels on Tuesday so for a brief moment the price action wasn't matching my overall view of the market, but then the market got rejected on the 3-day Sell cycle high @ 4907 and the rest is history.

    To validate any reversal pattern and continuation down price needs to break support (weekly lows), which normally only happens overnight in sycom.

    However, there are no leads in the S&P because of the public holiday to help confirm my view, as price has moved up from Weekly 50% level support during Globex hour on Monday.

    However, during Globex hours on Tuesday prices have come down, and that is a little thing that can lead into a big thing on Tuesday, as per Weekly report.

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  • S&P (e-mini ) 18 JAN 2010 Daily

    "S&P 500 has reversed down from the January highs and found support around the Weekly 50% levels. Often these exact same patterns can set-up a lower weekly open and a 2-day UP move.

    A continuation of the trend down, will fail around the 5-day 50% levels and close near the Weekly 50% levels on Monday (lower close), then Tuesday can often break and continue with the reversal trend, which can often be a large trending day"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern.

    Because of the public holiday on Monday, I don’t know what’s going to happen as the closing price on Monday is right in the middle of two patterns.

    The Weekly 50% level support and Friday’s price action can often set-up a 2-day UP move back towards the highs. However, a larger trend reversal from the Monthly high can often retest these exact levels in the daily pattern and closes lower on Monday.

    Because of the early close on Monday, at this point it's an each way bet on the direction, but globex will let traders know the by the time the cash market opens on Tuesday.

    SPI Daily 18th January 2010 recap

    "I'm bearish on the Markets around these levels, and the SPI will open below the weekly 50% level.

    However, the SPI will be opening around a R42 low @ 4842 and in my opinion will rise up into resistance levels...

    SPI weekly and 5-day pattern.

    Expectation of the trend continuing down should have risen upwards, but stalled at the Weekly and 5-day 50% levels (4871-75) and closed lower.

    However, once the R42 closed above those levels (HOOK) the bias was to continue upwards, which wasn’t part of my original view, but I did mention that in the US Weekly reports.

    “The price action on Friday can often set-up further gains at the start of next week: - Daily support and above the Weekly 50% levels and the continuation of the Trend (UP)”

    Therefore if US futures follow the same pattern then the SPI will probably continue higher on the back of the Financials towards the January highs.

    If US futures have a lower daily close (globex session), then that could set-up Tuesday as following my higher timeframe reversal pattern (break support)

    Note:- Currently the SPI is still in a 3-day 'Sell' cycle @ 4907

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