Index, Forex & Stocks 28th Aug 2010 Weekly

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

US Dollar INDEX, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/

OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update




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S&P (e-mini ) 27th August 2010 recap

Thursday has closed below the weekly lows @ 1053, therefore it favours a move downward.

However, based on the channels in the 5-day pattern there is a possibility that Friday swings back towards 1067.




S&P Weekly and Daily Range

Early resistance around 1053 did push Friday downward, however the Weekly lows continued to provide support  this week, and a late swing back above 1047 sent Friday towards and higher daily close.

Weekly report out later




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SPI Daily 27th August 2010 Daily recap

SPI trading around major support using the Yearly 50% level @ 4295.

Trend guide and support @ 4292-95

Random resistance @ 4335 & 4363.


SPI Weekly and daily range.


SPI didn’t move down into support levels (4292-95) to provide an ideal long set-up to trade the 42-point range upwards.

There were minor intra-day resistance levels @ 4335 and 4363, each providing a 10 point reversals, but nothing that was lasting.

As pointed out numerous times this week, the SPI around 4295 remains well supported during 2010,  however it is the price action in the S&P 500 from September that’s the worry.

Weekly report out tomorrow.




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S&P (e-mini ) 26th August 2010 recap

Based on the current price action and today's higher daily open around the 5-day 50% level, there is a possibility of more weakness using 1058-59 as resistance:- 8.5 points.

Thereafter becomes a random pattern:- either the Weekly lows supports the market

Or there’s more weakness as part of the trend down from 1098.50 to 1022.



S&P Weekly and daily range.

Early resistance providing a money pattern completion of $425 USD using resistance and the spiral top @ 1059

However, I didn’t know whether the Weekly lows would support price thereafter, or continue down as part of the larger trend driving price down towards 1022, as per weekly report

Thursday's price action illustrates that the larger trend is in control coming into September.





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SPI Daily 26th August 2010 recap


Market remains trading above the Yearly 50% level @ 4295, and trading above the Weekly lows.

Trend guide 4319

Because of the current patterns I favour a swing up towards 4353, and possibly towards the 3-day highs @ 4373



SPI Weekly and Daily range.

I was looking for more strength in the market today using the higher timeframe support patterns and 4319 as the trend guide.

Instead the first 100 minutes of the day remained below 4319, and once above 4319 price moved slowly upwards but not as high as expected.

Any further gains towards the 3-days highs will be dependant on price action in the S&P overnight




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S&P (e-mini ) 25th August 2010 recap

Patterns for today

A:- because there is a breakout of Tuesday's lows I'm looking for the trend to continue down into Wednesday's lows. this can happen from the Spiral Top  @ 1056-58

B:- around 1037.50 becomes random support :- swing pattern 8.5 to 14 points ($700 USD)



S&P Weekly and Daily range

The price action played out perfectly on Wednesday, the only sad part was the top on Wednesday in early trading failed by half a point to (1055.50 high), as this was part of the break and extend pattern from Tuesday’s breakout down into Wednesday’s lows.

The low on Wednesday was 1037.50 providing a 14 point reversal and higher daily close.





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SPI Daily 25th August 2010 Daily recap

Early support 4308-13

Resistance 4342-48 :- I’d be surprised to see the market above resistance today.

Below support and trend bias is down towards the Weekly lows @ 4290.



SPI Weekly and Daily range.

S&P continues to drag markets lower and the SPI is following, with today’s lower open and failure to move higher than 4342

There was an upside gap fill from today's support  @ 4313 and into yesterday’s breakout using Wednesday’s 5-day lows as resistance (4342), and the rest of the day followed the Weekly range pattern towards the lows @ 4290

SPI is trading around the highest timeframe 50% level @ 4295 once again , and this is a robust support level during 2010

However, it’s the S&P 500 that’s driving the markets, and any further weakness in the S&P 500 as it moves down towards the August levels @ 1016-22 will see the SPI lower




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S&P (e-mini ) 24th August 2010 recap

Support 1053-1055 with a possible swing into a higher daily close.

However, there is a larger trend pushing the S&P from 1098.50 towards 1022 during August.



S&P Weekly and Daily range.

This week was either going to remain within the Weekly ranges with the Weekly lows providing support once again and more consolidation

Or it was going break support and continue to trend down towards lower August support levels.

Tuesday's price action and breakout of the daily lows suggests more weakness in the short-term.



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SPI Daily 24th August 2010 Daily recap

SPI opening below key intra-day levels @ 4398-4406

Whilst below those levels the trend is down towards Tuesday lows (42 points range)

Random support around Tuesday lows


SPI Weekly and Daily range.


Another consolidating trading day of 42-point ranges, as price is pushed down from 4398 towards Tuesday's lows.




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S&P (e-mini ) 23rd August 2010 recap

"High probability UP move would have seen Friday HOOK and today already trading above 1077.50

Trend guide 1071.25.

Today could end up a choppy trading range:- 8.5 points"



S&P Weekly and Daily range.

Higher timeframe patterns suggest a continuation of the downward trend, however at the start of this week I was looking for a 2-day counter-trend move upwards.

This was based on using 1071.25 as support and then continuing above 1077.50

Price moved upwards from 1071.25 completing the R8.5 range (spiral top) ,but once it dropped back below 1077.50 Monday moved into a range bound trading range to the downside, as part of the larger timeframe cycles during the 3rd Quarter.





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SPI Daily 23rd August 2010 Daily recap

"Based on the current price action I would have an UP day using 4381-83 as the trend guide"



SPI Weekly and Daily range.

Early rise from support and once the precise 42 point range had completed @ 4420, then market moved into a consolidating pattern to close out the day.

The only way I can see the SPI moving down into the Weekly lows is if the S&P 500 moves down early this week.





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