Index Futures, Forex Reports 25th Apr 09

Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

Australian Index (SPI) Futures

http://austindex.blogspot.com/


DOW and S&P Index Futures


http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD, AUD/USD. GBP/USD

http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/







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  • DOW Futures 24th April 2009 recap

    "This week is all about the Weekly HOOK pattern:- higher Friday close.

    Trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level

    5-day highs random resistance"


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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    This week saw a Weekly HOOK pattern on Tuesday, therefore there was a bias to close higher on Friday.

    Once Price started above the 5-day 50% level ,Friday never looked back.

    Weekly report out later



    SPI Daily 24th April 2009 recap

    "I mentioned on Tuesday that my next Sell pattern was on Friday, and we have a 'Spiral Top' open and a higher Daily open.

    Basically, any down move can't be confirmed unless there is a reversal and HOOK back below 3738

    expectation is then push down into 3689:- random support."


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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Higher Daily open on the SPI pushing the market down, and confirmed with price trading below 3738.

    Once that was confirmed expectation was a move down into 3689.

    3689 support held with 3pm buying pushing the market back towards the midpoints.

    Weekly Report out tomorrow





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  • DOW Futures 23rd April 2009 recap

    "HOOK patterns normally continue higher into Friday.....

    They also don't reverse down and close back below the 5-day 50% levels....


    Traders simply have to define their trading based either side of the 5-day 50% level"


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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Thursday started with price trading below the 5-day 50% level.

    Even though HOOK patterns have a bias to rise higher into Friday, Thursday's set-up wasn't a foregone conclusion.

    Price pushed down into Support (yellow) early and then continued higher into the close.

    At this stage the bias remains with a higher Friday close.



    SPI Daily 23rd April 2009 recap

    "Unless there is a higher daily open and trading around the Weekly 50% level @ 3732 it makes it hard to take an ideal short position.

    With Yesterday's support around 3659 and still trading above the Weekly 50% level @ 3663, then the bias is to move higher and back towards the 5-day 50% level.

    At this stage my view is that the SPI will continue higher into the 5-day 50% levels and (spiral tops)"


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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    US markets moved up on Tuesday, therefore my expectation was a consolidating trading pattern over Wednesday & Thursday between both Weekly 50% levels with an UP bias

    My next short set-up and continuation down was based from Friday:- higher Daily open using resistance as a ‘short’ set-up.

    That will depend on where the Market opens.

    Or it could have aligned today using both the Weekly and 5-day 50% levels and today’s spiral tops…

    But instead of reversing down as was the expectation a number of day's ago, that wasn’t going to happen once the R44 range closed above the channel highs @ 3723, resulting in a HOOK an break pattern

    Tomorrow is Friday and I'll see if there is any ideal Short-trade set-up to take.






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  • S&P (e-mini ) 22nd April 09 recap

    "Tuesday is a HOOK pattern play.

    A HOOK pattern normally moves back down into the Weekly 50% levels retest those levels and then continues higher.

    Therefore there is a bias to move higher:- Support 837.50

    Any Support and higher moves on Wednesday as part of the HOOK pattern, and price will probably push up towards 857 and stall"


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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Tuesday's reversal off the 5-day lows provided a 'HOOK' play for Wednesday.

    This pushed US markets upwards from support and into my upper targets.

    857 was a resistance level but I wasn't expecting a push back down into support in late trading.

    But when you wake up in the morning it's a pleasant surprise.

    I'm not bullish on the Markets, but whilst price is trading above the Weekly 50% level they can still support the market in the short-term.

    Normally a HOOK pattern play would close higher on Wednesday and remain above the 5-day 50% level and not close back down into a lower Daily close.


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  • SPI Daily 22nd April 2009 recap

    "Because my expectation today is a consolidating trading day like yesterday, I'm going to use the levels in the 5-day range.

    I'll be shorting resistance @ 3724-27 (5-day 50% level)

    And Support around the Weekly 50% levels along with 3659"


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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI didn't push up high enough today to move into shorts, instead drifting down into support @ 3659, but failing to swing up an entire 44 point range.


    Another consolidating trading day...

    "If US markets have an UP day on Tuesday, then my view is to see howthe next two days of trading plays out:- Wednesday and Thursday. If price remains range bound between 3663 and 3732, then I’m looking for the next SELL pattern on Friday (larger trend play), or early on Monday to continue the move down towards the Monthly 50% levels"......................... (Yesterday's Recap Report)

    Tuesday was an UP day in the US, and today was the first of a 2-day consolidation pattern.

    If that's the case I would expect another day like today and then look for any 'short' trading set-ups from Friday for a larger Trend play using resistance within the 5-day pattern

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  • S&P (e-mini ) 2Ist April 09 recap

    "US markets reversed down from Friday's highs and part of a 2-day reversal pattern.

    SET-UP B:- 837 pushes the market down into Tuesday's 5-day lows, then it wouldn't surprise me to see an UP day on Tuesday from lower support back into the 5-day 50% level"


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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern


    US markets played a 5-day low reversal pattern back above the Weekly 50% levels.

    At this stage US markets look range bound with an UP bias.

    We should see how well supported US markets are with the Weekly 50% level support on Wednesday



    SPI Daily 21st April 2009 recap

    "At this stage my view is for the market to continue down into the Monthly 50% level.

    However we don't know how price will get there.

    Therefore i'm going to treat the SPI using the Weekly 50% level @ 3663 as support along with the 5-day lows.

    Any open below 3698 and exepctation price will try and push down 44 points (small range day)

    So my expectation is down below 3698 and then consolidation between the weekly 50% level and 3698"


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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    SPI opened below 3698 and pushed down into the Weekly 50% level @ 3663, finding support, as did yesterday at 3732, resulting in a small range day.

    At this stage i'm expecting more weakness this month, but it won't surprise me to see the SPI find support around this level if US markets have an UP day on Tuesday.

    If that's the case the I will Treat the Aussie market as a sideways pattern between 3663 and 3732 until Friday.

    If it's range bound between these levels over the next two days then i'll be looking for the next sell down on Friday or early on Monday.

    Recap:-


    Friday topped the market @ 3852 and Monday confirmed the reversal
    of trend with a move below the 5-day 50% level @ 3783.

    That pushed price down yesterday into the Weekly 50% level @ 3732
    finding support, and today continued down into the next level @ 3663
    finding the support along with the 5-day low.

    I have a view of lower prices in April (back into the Monthly 50% level),
    and I’m extremely bearish but I need certain things to confirm any larger down move (break of the Monthly 50% level), and at this stage there hasn’t been a break of the 5-day lows yet.

    The Market has been dynamically moving lower following the 5-day
    patterns without a break, therefore price can rotate upwards from
    support and move into a 2-day consolidation pattern.

    If US markets have an UP day on Tuesday, then my view is to see how
    the next two days of trading plays out:- Wednesday and Thursday.

    If price remains range bound between 3663 and 3732, then I’m looking for the next SELL pattern on Friday (larger trend play), or early on Monday to continue the move down towards the Monthly 50% levels

    Of course using confirming patterns within the 5-day range.




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  • S&P (e-mini ) 20th April 09 recap

    "Expectation that US markets are following the same 2-day reversal patterns as the past 2 weeks,

    But unless you are short from Friday's highs there isn't a 'short' set-up until Support breaks..."

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Two day reversal is playing out from Friday's highs, and confirmed with a break of Support on Monday and a move down into Monday's lows.

    Price is now back into the Weekly 50% levels, which is a major trend guide for this week...

    But at this stage I'm expecting more weakness in the markets.





    SPI Daily 20th April 2009 recap

    "The SPI has reached my upper targets in April and now I'm looking for price to rotate back towards the Monthly 50% levels:- April-May

    But that won't be confirmed until price is trading below the 5-day 50% level.

    And then the rest of this week needs to be defined the Weekly 50% levels"


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    SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Expectation of weakness today was confirmed with price trading below 3783 today (5-day 50% level), which resulted in a moved down into the Weekly 50% level @ 3732

    Weekly 50% level support, resulted in a 44 point reversal upwards.




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