However we don't know how price will get there.
Therefore i'm going to treat the SPI using the Weekly 50% level @ 3663 as support along with the 5-day lows.
Any open below 3698 and exepctation price will try and push down 44 points (small range day)
So my expectation is down below 3698 and then consolidation between the weekly 50% level and 3698"
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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern
SPI opened below 3698 and pushed down into the Weekly 50% level @ 3663, finding support, as did yesterday at 3732, resulting in a small range day.
At this stage i'm expecting more weakness this month, but it won't surprise me to see the SPI find support around this level if US markets have an UP day on Tuesday.
If that's the case the I will Treat the Aussie market as a sideways pattern between 3663 and 3732 until Friday.
If it's range bound between these levels over the next two days then i'll be looking for the next sell down on Friday or early on Monday.
Recap:-
Friday topped the market @ 3852 and Monday confirmed the reversal
of trend with a move below the 5-day 50% level @ 3783.
That pushed price down yesterday into the Weekly 50% level @ 3732
finding support, and today continued down into the next level @ 3663
finding the support along with the 5-day low.
I have a view of lower prices in April (back into the Monthly 50% level),
and I’m extremely bearish but I need certain things to confirm any larger down move (break of the Monthly 50% level), and at this stage there hasn’t been a break of the 5-day lows yet.
The Market has been dynamically moving lower following the 5-day
patterns without a break, therefore price can rotate upwards from
support and move into a 2-day consolidation pattern.
If US markets have an UP day on Tuesday, then my view is to see how
the next two days of trading plays out:- Wednesday and Thursday.
If price remains range bound between 3663 and 3732, then I’m looking for the next SELL pattern on Friday (larger trend play), or early on Monday to continue the move down towards the Monthly 50% levels
Of course using confirming patterns within the 5-day range.
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